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重现性地磁扰动作为地磁活动的重要部分,其特性在磁情预报中起着不可缺少的重要作用.本文利用地磁扰动在一定条件下具有27天重现的特性和现代时序分析法中的自适应滤波方法,对北京地磁台K指数的预报方法进行了研究,并分别在太阳黑子活动低年和高年的两个时间段,进行了预报实验:低年时段预报结果精度为0.66;在高年时段,预报精度为0.79.进一步分析还表明,理论计算方法应当与多方面的物理分析相结合,这样才能为磁扰的定量分析和预报提供更充分与合理的计算条件和物理根据. 相似文献
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Guojun Wang Jiankui Shi Weihua Bai Ivan Galkin Zeng Wang Yueqian Sun 《Advances in Space Research (includes Cospar's Information Bulletin, Space Research Today)》2019,63(10):3119-3130
Global observations of S4 amplitude scintillation index by the GPS Occultation Sounder (GNOS) on FengYun-3 C (FY3C) satellite reveal global dynamic patterns of a strong pre-midnight scintillations in F-region of the ionosphere during the St. Patrick’s Day geomagnetic super storm of 17–19 March 2015. The observed strong scintillations mainly occurred in the low latitudes, caused by equatorial plasma bubbles. During the main storm phase (March 17), the scintillations were first triggered in the New Zealand sector near 160°E longitudes, extending beyond 40°S dip latitude. They were also enhanced in the Indian sector, but significantly suppressed in East Asia near 120°E longitude and in Africa around 30°E longitude. During the initial recovery phase (March 18–19), the global scintillations were seldom observed in GNOS data. During the later recovery phase (after March 19), the scintillations recovered to the pre-storm level in Indian, African, and American sectors, but not in East Asian and any of Pacific sectors. These results closely correlate with observations of the density depletion structures by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, and ground-based instruments. Such consistency indicates reliability of our scintillation sensing approach even in a case-by-case comparison study. The prompt penetration electric field and disturbance dynamo electric field are suggested as the main factors that control the enhancement and inhibition of the scintillations during the storm, respectively. 相似文献
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本文简要介绍了相干散射雷达SABRE及其观测Pc5地磁脉动的工作原理。1985—1989年观测数据的统计分析结果表明,相位向极传播脉动事件的出现率峰值在当地时间午夜附近,而向赤道传播事件的出现率峰值则在18:00LT左右。文中给出了上述两类脉动事件出现率的日变化,与地磁活动的相关,与背景电离层等离子体对流特性的关系等统计分析结果。 相似文献
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This paper analyzes the state of the ionosphere during two geomagnetic storms of a different intensity evolving in different sectors of local time in different seasons. There were used the data from a network of ionospheric stations located in the opposite longitudinal sectors of 80°-150° E and 250°-310° E.This analysis has permitted us to conclude that the detected differences in the variations of the disturbances are likely to be determined by the local time difference of the geomagnetic storm development, its intensity and by the different illumination conditions of the ionosphere. 相似文献
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QIN Guotai QIU Shiyan HE Aiqing Zhu Yiqiang SUN Lilin LIN Xianwen LI Hong XU Xuepei 《空间科学学报》2002,22(Z1)
Upper atmosphere composition data were obtained for the last half year with a quadruple mass spectrometer on board spacecraft "SZ-2" launched on 10 Jan uary 2001. Based on the analysis of these data, the variations of atmospheric compositions in solar and geomagnetic quiet conditions are reported first, then a detailed discussion on the atmospheric composition variations under the so lar and geomagnetic disturbed conditions is given. The results show that near the altitude of 400 km the variations of main atmospheric compositions corre sponding to solar disturbances are more remarkable in the sunlit area than in the shade area. On the contrary, in geomagnetic disturbance events the corre sponding variations are more obvious in the shade area, an evident increase of N2 density at relatively higher latitudes was observed. 相似文献
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用Morlet小波变换对Oulu台站和Apatity台站(主要是Apatity台站)1998-2002年间宇宙线静日和地磁暴前的地面宇宙线强度变化特征进行分析,得到:在宇宙线静日期间普遍存在准24h周期变化特征,并且在当地时间0200,1400左右分别出现最小值和最大值;对12个例子的分析可以看到地面宇宙线强度在地磁暴之前l-2天均出现了不同于宇宙线静日期间变化特征,或有小尺度周期出现,或周期变化完全消失,或有异常24h周期变化,这种变化特征在一定程度上可作为地磁预报的先兆特征之一。 相似文献