向阳面磁顶区可压缩涡旋诱发重联模拟研究:通量传输事件的形成和结构

本文用二维可压缩MHD模型,模拟研究了向阳面磁顶区的涡旋诱发重联过程。重联过程的结果形成了同心的磁流体涡旋。同时还对可压缩模型与不可压缩模型的异同点作了对比研究。结果表明,在同样条件下,可压缩情况的涡旋发展的增长率比不可压缩情况慢;结构特性无显著变化。本文指出,涡旋诱发重联是产生通量传输事件的一种重要机制。通量传输管可看作为磁流体涡旋管。对通量传输事件诸物理量(磁场、速度、密度、压力和温度)的分布特性作了模拟研究,可解释FTEs的主要观测特性。      

商用飞机持续适航事件经济性分析模型

我国某型民用飞机于2015年开始陆续交付运行,积累了大量的持续适航事件和数据,但缺少量化的评价机制用于持续适航事件的经济性分析。通过对民用飞机持续适航事件和数据的收集与分析,结合对主制造商和航空公司的成本和收益损失的计算,提出持续适航事件成本结构;在此基础上,建立单个事件的成本模型和持续适航事件经验曲线模型,进一步提出预测机型成熟期的持续适航事件成本预测模型并进行验证。结果表明：在机队持续适航成本预测模型使用的过程中,飞机停场天数、事件接收到确定措施时间和措施实施时间的取值敏感度高,在后续机队的运行过程中,应尽量减小这三个参数的取值,以降低持续适航事件成本。     

XP项目迭代工作量及相关度量

在使用极限编程(XP,Extreme Programming)方法的软件开发项目中,我们可以使用用户story点来度量项目的规模,这些体现了用户需求的story是以一定的效率被逐次迭代完成的,迭代结束时形成一个完整的软件产品。本文提供一种基于用户story的迭代开发阶段工作量(IE)及任务效率(TE)等指标的计算方法。用一组数据对该方法进行了模拟验证。     

DFT&ET综合分析法

根据故障树(FT)和事件树(ET)之间的相互关系,动态系统的复杂性以及不同子系统之间所存在的矛盾,结合马尔可夫链的运用,提出了将动态故障树(DFT)和ET相结合的一个合理的方法,并通过实例给出证明.该方法解决了所建模型中的矛盾,且通过模块化处理提高了效率.     

上面级发射中高轨道卫星外热流分析

研究发射轨道的外热流是卫星热控制系统设计的基础。针对上面级发射轨道的特点和卫星姿态，推导出上面级滑行段和点火段瞬态及平均外热流计算公式。以北斗三号中轨导航卫星为例，给出了阳光和轨道面夹角随太阳黄经和升交点赤经的变化关系，以及最长阴影时间、滑行段旋转角速度约束条件的分析方法，在此基础上确定了上面级阶段卫星的极端外热流工况并给出了外热流计算结果。     

Dynamical characterization of the last prolonged solar minima

The planetary hypothesis of the solar cycle is an old idea in which the gravitational influence of the planets has a non-negligible effect on the causes of the solar magnetic cycle. The advance of this hypothesis is based on phenomenological correlations between dynamical parameters of the Sun’s movement around the barycentre of the Solar System and sunspots time series; and more especially, identifying relationships linking solar barycentric dynamics with prolonged minima (especially Grand Minima events). However, at present there is no clear physical mechanism relating these phenomena. The possible celestial influence on solar cycle modulation is of great importance not only in solar physics but also in Earth sciences, because prolonged solar minima have associated important climatic and telluric variations, in particular, during the Maunder and Dalton Minimum. In this work we looked for a possible causal link in relation with solar barycentric dynamics and prolonged minima events. We searched for particular changes in the Sun’s acceleration and concentrated on long-term variations of the solar cycle. We show how the orbital angular momentum of the Sun evolves and how the inclination of the solar barycentric orbit varies during the epochs of orbital retrogressions. In particular, at these moments, the radial component of the Sun’s acceleration (i.e., in the barycentre-Sun direction) had an exceptional magnitude. These radial impulses occurred at the very beginning of the Maunder Minimum, during the Dalton Minimum and also at the maximum of cycle 22 before the present extended minimum. We also found a strong correlation between the planetary torque and the observed sunspots international number around that maximum. We apply our results in a novel theory of Sun–planets interaction that it is sensitive to Sun barycentric dynamics and found a very important effect on the Sun’s capability of storing hypothetical reservoirs of potential energy that could be released by internal flows and might be related to the solar cycle. This process begins about 40 years before the solar angular momentum inversions, i.e., before Maunder Minimum, Dalton Minimum, and before the present extended minimum. Our conclusions suggest a dynamical characterization of peculiar prolonged solar minima. We discuss the possible implications of these results for the solar cycle including the present extended minimum.     

A study on radio-loud interacting/non-interacting CMEs-associated SEPs and solar flares

We have established a data set of 58 major hybrid SEP events associated with meter-to-decahectometer wavelength (m-to-DH) type II bursts, solar flares, and radio-load CMEs during the period of 1997–2014. The main focus of our study is to address the following two questions: Does the interaction of CMEs play a role in the enhancement of SEP intensity? Is there any difference in the seed population, and parent eruptions in the SEP events with and without CME interactions? Hence, the sample of 58 events is classified into two sets: (i) 35 non-interacting-CME-associated SEP events; (ii) 23 interacting-CME-associated SEP events. All the characteristics of SEPs, their associated CMEs/flares and the relationships between them are statistically analyzed and compared. Some of the basic attributes and relative elemental abundances (Fe/O ratios) of the both the sets are also compared. The results indicate that the seed particles in non-interacting-CME-associated SEP events are mostly from solar wind/coronal materials. But in the case of interacting-CME-associated SEP events, it may be associated with both flare material from preceding flares and coronal materials from solar wind/preceding CMEs. The correlation studies reveal that there are clear correlations between logarithmic peak intensity of SEP events and properties of CMEs (space speed: cc?=?0.56) and solar flares (peak intensity: cc?=?0.40; integrated flux: cc?=?0.52) for non-interacting-CME-associated SEP events. But these correlations are absent for the interacting-CME-associated events. In addition, the results suggest that interaction of primary CMEs with their preceding CMEs plays an important role in the enhancement of peak intensity of SEPs at least for a set of m-to-DH type II bursts associated SEP events.     

Perspective on space radiation for space flights in 2020–2040

The Sun undergoes several well known periodicities in activity, such as the Schwabe 11 year cycle, the Gleissberg 80–90 year cycle, the Suess 200–210 year cycle and the Halstatt 2200–2300 year cycle. In addition, there is evidence that the 20th century levels of solar activity are unusually high. The years 2020–2040 are expected to coincide with increased activity in human space flight beyond low Earth orbit. The solar cycles and the present level of solar activity are reviewed and their activities during the years 2020–2040 are discussed with a perspective on space radiation and the future program of space flight. It is prudent to prepare for continuing levels of high solar activity as well as for the low levels of the current deep minimum, which has corresponded to high galactic cosmic ray flux.     

The effect of solar–geomagnetic activity during hospital admission on coronary events within 1 year in patients with acute coronary syndromes

Some evidence indicates the deterioration of the cardiovascular system during space storms. It is plausible that the space weather conditions during and after hospital admission may affect the risk of coronary events in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). We analyzed the data of 1400 ACS patients who were admitted to the Hospital Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, and who survived for more than 4 days. We evaluated the associations between geomagnetic storms (GS), solar proton events (SPE), and solar flares (SF) that occurred 0–3 days before and after hospital admission and the risk of cardiovascular death (CAD), non-fatal ACS, and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) during a period of 1 year; the evaluation was based on the multivariate logistic model, controlling for clinical data. After adjustment for clinical variables, GS occurring in conjunction with SF 1 day before admission increased the risk of CAD by over 2.5 times. GS 2 days after SPE occurred 1 day after admission increased the risk of CAD and CABG by over 2.8 times. The risk of CABG increased by over 2 times in patients admitted during the day of GS and 1 day after SPE. The risk of ACS was by over 1.63 times higher for patients admitted 1 day before or after solar flares.     

The solar-terrestrial event of 23 February 1956

The solar flare of 23 February 1956 and the resulting geophysical disturbance ranks as one of the most remarkable solar-terrestrial events of the twentieth century. It sparked many papers and has seldom been equalled. Fifty years after the International Geophysical Year, it seems timely to review the observations of the event from today’s perspective, and to draw on the recollections of scientists who were active at the time.