Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

Study of the Enhancement Events of Relativistic Electron at the Geosynchronous Orbit

The high flux of energetic electron on geostationary orbit can induce many kinds of malfunction of the satellite there, within which the bulk-charging is the most significant that several broadcast satellite failures were confirmed to be due to this effect. The electron flux on geostationary orbit varies in a large range even up to three orders accompanied the passage of interplanetary magnetic cloud and the following geomagnetic disturbances. Upon the investigation of electron flux enhancement events, two types of events were partitioned as recurrent events and random ones. Both of the two kinds of events relate to the interplanetary conditions such as solar wind parameters, IMF etc and their evolution characters as well. As for the recurrent events, we found that, (1) all of the events exhibits periodic recurrence about 27 days, (2) significant increase of electron flux relates to interplanetary index and characters of their distribution, (3) the electron flux also has relation to solar activity index. An artificial neural network was constructed to estimate the flux I day ahead. The random electron flux enhancement events are rare and present different distribution figures to the recurrent ones. The figure of the random events and the conditions of their occurrence is also discussed in this paper.      

Numerical Simulation for the 16 August 1999 EUV Brightenings

The 16 August 1999 EUV brightenings are numerically simulated by a third-order upwind compact scheme, basing on the TRACE observation. The present simulation can give a possible explanation to its formation and evolution. The numerical results show that the initial reconnection jets at around X-point are responsible for the occurrence of EUV brightening. The strong and superposed ejections caused by the first and second coalescence of magnetic islands are possibly related to the lifted material which initially appeared as absorption features and Later EUV-emitting structures respectively. The bi-directional reconnection jets may correspond to the lifted material that either continued to move upward along the apparently open field lines or fell down to the surface.      

Energy input for explosive events in the transition zone

It is suggested that the energy input for explosive events in the transition zone comes from precipitating ions, typically of energies of a few×10² keV/nucleon, accelerated in the high corona. The energetics of the process are discussed, together with implications for coronal heating.     

通过纯软件的方法测试数字处理器的故障敏感性

对于工作在高辐射太空中的飞行器而言，它不可避免会受到单粒子效应的影响。因此，如何预测飞行器中单粒子效应敏感区域以便加强保护措施是一件很重要的工作。但事实上，要预测单粒子效应对飞行器的影响并不容易。本文给出了一种通过纯软件来评测飞行器系统对单粒子效应的敏感程度的方法——软件故障注入法——这也是评测微电子电路可靠性极具前景的方法。该方法采用高效的汇编语言在汇编级实现，对目标系统不会造成损伤，并且使用方便。试验的结果表明，目标处理器对于单粒子翻转的敏感性大约为1．38％到2．35％，且寄存器的敏感性要高于内存区。     

Relative fluxes of shock and prompt peaks in SEP event time profiles

Peak fluxes are an important property of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) event time profiles from both astro/heliophysical and applications perspectives. However, the peak flux in an event may occur at the event onset, or at the time of the interplanetary shock arrival (the ESP or energetic storm particles). This makes an important difference in the interpretation of the peak flux, and in any attempts to characterize or model it. This paper describes a study of SEP data sets from ACE, IMP-8 and GOES toward determining the relative properties of these peak fluxes for protons with energies near 1, 10, and 50 MeV. The results suggest that for gradual events with both peaks, the ESP peak often dominates at 1 MeV energies and is dominant about half the time at 10 MeV. Moreover, the prompt peak fluxes can be used to estimate the shock peak (ESP event) up to days ahead, especially in the lower energy range.     

Jovian periodicities (∼10 h, ∼40 min) on Ulysses’ Distant Jupiter Encounter observations around the Halloween CIR events

We analyzed data from four different instruments (HI-SCALE, URAP, SWOOPS, VHM/FGM) onboard Ulysses spacecraft (s/c) and we searched for possible evidence of Jovian emissions when the s/c approached Jupiter during the times of Halloween events (closest time approach/position to Jupiter: February 5, 2004/R = 1683 R_J,θ = ∼49°). In particular, we analyzed extensively the low energy ion measurements obtained by the HI-SCALE experiment in order to examine whether low energy ion/electron emissions show a symmetry, and whether they are observed at north high latitudes upstream from the jovian bow shock, as is known to occur in the region upstream from the south bow shock as well ( Marhavilas et al., 2001). We studied the period from October 2003 to March 2004, as Ulysses moved at distances 0.8–1.2 AU from the planet at north Jovicentric latitudes <75°, and we present here an example of characteristic Jovian periodicities in the measurements around a CIR observed by Ulysses on days ∼348–349/2003 (R = 1894 R_J,θ = 72°). We show that Ulysses observed low energy ion (∼0.055–4.7 MeV) and electron (>∼40 keV) flux and/or spectral modulation with the Jupiter rotation period (∼10 h) as well as variations with the same period in solar wind parameters, radio and magnetic field directional data. In addition, characteristic strong ∼40 min periodic variations were found superimposed on the ∼10 h ion spectral modulation. Both the ∼10 h and ∼40 min ion periodicities in HI-SCALE measurements were present in several cases during the whole period examined (October 2003 to March 2004) and were found to be more evident during some special conditions, for instance during enhanced fluxes around the start (forward shock) and the end (reverse shock) of CIRs. We infer that the Jovian magnetosphere was triggered by the impact of the CIRs, after the Halloween events, and it was (a) a principal source of forward and reverse shock-associated ion flux structures and (b) the cause of generation of ∼10 h quasi-periodic magnetic field and plasma modulation observed by Ulysses at those times.     

The method for predicting solar proton events

Dynamic processes in the interplanetary space have been investigated using time variations in time parameters of the cosmic-ray rigidity spectrum. Change of heliosphere electromagnetic characteristics has been found out to precede sporadic phenomena on the Sun. In particular, it is shown that sporadic phenomena are followed by generation of local polarization electric fields, decrease of the magnetic-field strength in small-scale heliospheric structures, and increase of the potential difference between the pole and the plane of the ecliptic. These features allow prediction of solar proton events in advance (from several hours to several tens of hours) with a high degree of confirmation.     

The influence of in situ pitch-angle cosine coverage on the derivation of solar energetic particle injection and interplanetary transport conditions

Modelization of solar energetic particle (SEP) events aims at revealing the general scenario of SEP injection and interplanetary propagation and relies on in situ measurements of SEP distributions. In this paper, we study to what extent the LEFS60 and LEMS30 electron telescopes of the Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAM) on board the Advanced Composition Explorer are able to scan pitch-angle distributions during near-relativistic electron events. We estimate the percentage of the pitch-angle cosine range scanned by both telescopes for a given magnetic field configuration. We obtain that the pitch-angle coverage is always higher for LEFS60 than for LEMS30. Therefore, LEFS60 provides more information of the directional distribution of the observed particles. The aim of the paper is to study the relevance of the coverage when fitting LEFS60 particle measurements in order to infer the solar injection and the interplanetary transport conditions. By studying synthetic electron events, we obtain that at least 70% of the pitch-angle cosine range needs to be scanned by the telescope. Otherwise, multiple scenarios can explain the data.     

Statistical properties of the most powerful solar and heliospheric disturbances

We present and discuss here the first version of a data base of extreme solar and heliospheric events. The data base contains now 87 extreme events mostly since 1940. An event is classified as extreme if one of the three critical parameters passed a lower limit. The critical parameters were the X-ray flux (parameter R), solar proton flux (parameter S) and geomagnetic disturbance level (parameter G). We find that the five strongest extreme events based on four variables (X-rays SEP, Dst, Ap) are completely separate except for the October 2003 event which is one the five most extreme events according to SEP, Dst and Ap. This underlines the special character of the October 2003 event, making it unique within 35 years. We also find that the events based on R and G are rather separate, indicating that the location of even extreme flares on the solar disk is important for geomagnetic effects. We also find that S = 3 events are not extreme in the same sense as R > 3 and G > 3 events, while S = 5 events are missing so far. This suggests that it might be useful to rescale the classification of SEP fluxes.