Time distribution of the precipitable water vapor in central Saudi Arabia and its relationship to solar activity

Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas. It plays a major role in the dynamics of atmospheric circulation, radiation exchange within the atmosphere, and climate variability. Knowledge of the distribution of water vapor is important for understanding climate change and global warming.     

Response of the extratropical middle atmosphere to the September 2002 major stratospheric sudden warming

The effects of a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) at extratropical latitudes have been investigated with wind and temperature observations over a Brazilian station, Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45°W) during September–October 2002. In response to the warming at polar latitudes a corresponding cooling at tropical and extratropical latitudes is prominent in the stratosphere. A conspicuous signature of latitudinal propagation of a planetary wave of zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2 from polar to low latitude has been observed during the warming period. The polar vortex which split into two parts of different size is found to travel considerably low latitude. Significant air mass mixing between low and high latitudes is caused by planetary wave breaking. The meridional wind exhibits oscillations of period 2–4 days during the warming period in the stratosphere. No wave feature is evident in the mesosphere during the warming period, although a 12–14 day periodicity is observed after 2 weeks of the warming event, indicating close resemblance to the results of other simultaneous investigations carried out from high latitude Antarctic stations. Convective activity over the present extratropical station diminishes remarkably during the warming period. This behavior is possibly due to destabilization and shift of equatorial convective active regions towards the opposite hemisphere in response to changes in the mean meridional circulation in concert with the SSW.     

Short-term forecasting regional model to predict M(3000)F2 over the European sector: Comparisons with the IRI model during moderate,disturbed, and very disturbed geomagnetic conditions

The hourly measurements of M(3000)F2 (M(3000)F2_meas) and the hourly quiet-time values of M(3000)F2 (M(3000)F2_QT) relative to the ionospheric observatories of Poitiers, Lannion, Dourbes, Slough, Rome, Juliusruh, Kaliningrad, Uppsala, Lyckesele, Sodankyla, and Kiruna as well as the hourly time-weighted accumulation series derived from the geomagnetic planetary index ap (ap(τ)), were considered during the period January 1957–December 2003 and used for the development of 11 short-term forecasting local models (STFLM) of M(3000)F2.     

地球磁层亚暴统计分析

利用AL和AE指数对第24个太阳活动周发生的亚暴事件进行统计分析.主要统计了关于磁层亚暴的强度,亚暴初值与恢复值的关系,亚暴持续时间,亚暴恢复相与增长相（包括膨胀相）持续时间的关系等.统计结果表明:在第24个太阳活动周中2008-2016年发生的亚暴事件大部分比较剧烈,其峰值大都在200～1200nT;初值和恢复值大都在30～100nT,并且事件占比符合正态分布;大部分亚暴都能恢复到亚暴初值60nT以内,并且差值越小,事件的占比越大.大部分亚暴的持续时间较长,在100～400min之间,其中增长相（包括膨胀相）持续时间均在120min以内,并且持续时间越长,其事件占比越小;大部分亚暴事件的恢复相持续时间在60～300min之间,并且呈现出正态分布特征.绝大多数亚暴事件的恢复相持续时间为增长相持续时间的10倍以下,其中约一半亚暴事件的恢复相持续时间为增长相持续时间的1～4倍.这说明亚暴的能量聚集速度约为能量释放速度的1～4倍.     

Effects of geomagnetic activity variations on the physiological and psychological state of functionally healthy humans: Some results of Azerbaijani studies

There are collaborative and cross-disciplinary space weather studies in the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences conducted with purposes of revealing possible effects of solar, geomagnetic and cosmic ray variability on certain technological, biological and ecological systems. This paper describes some results of the experimental studies of influence of the periodical and aperiodical changes of geomagnetic activity upon human brain, human health and psycho-emotional state. It also covers the conclusions of studies on influence of violent solar events and severe geomagnetic storms of the solar cycle 23 on the mentioned systems in middle-latitude location. It is experimentally established that weak and moderate geomagnetic storms do not cause significant changes in the brain’s bioelectrical activity and exert only stimulating influence while severe disturbances of geomagnetic conditions cause negative influence, seriously disintegrate brain’s functionality, activate braking processes and amplify the negative emotional background of an individual. It is concluded that geomagnetic disturbances affect mainly emotional and vegetative spheres of human beings while characteristics reflecting personality properties do not undergo significant changes.     

Solar activity variations of equatorial spread F occurrence and sustenance during different seasons over Indian longitudes: Empirical model and causative mechanisms

A comprehensive analysis using nearly two decades of ionosonde data is carried out on the seasonal and solar cycle variations of Equatorial Spread F (ESF) irregularities over magnetic equatorial location Trivandrum (8.5°N, 77°E). The corresponding Rayleigh Taylor (RT) instability growth rates (γ) are also estimated. A seasonal pattern of ESF occurrence and the corresponding γ is established for low solar (LSA), medium solar (MSA) and high solar (HSA) activity periods. For LSA, it is seen that the γ maximizes during post sunset time with comparable magnitudes for autumnal equinox (AE), vernal equinox (VE) and winter solstice (WS), while for summer solstice (SS) it maximizes in the post-midnight period. Concurrent responses are seen in the ESF occurrence pattern. For MSA, γ maximizes during post-sunset for VE followed by WS and AE while SS maximises during post-midnight period. The ESF occurrence for MSA is highest for VE (80%), followed by AE (70%), WS (60%) and SS (50%). In case of HSA, maximum γ occurs for VE followed by AE, WS and SS. The concurrent ESF occurrence maximizes for VE and AE (90%), WS and SS at 70%.The solar cycle variation of γ is examined. γ shows a linear variation with F10.7?cm flux. Further, ESF percentage occurrence and duration show an exponential and linear variation respectively with γ. An empirical model on the solar activity dependence of ESF occurrence and sustenance time over Indian longitudes is arrived at using the database spanning two solar cycles for the first time.     

Observations of wave activity in the ionosphere over South Africa in geomagnetically quiet and disturbed periods

The present paper deals with observations of wave activity in the period range 1–60 min at ionospheric heights over the Western Cape, South Africa from May 2010 to July 2010. The study is based on the Doppler type sounding of the ionosphere. The Doppler frequency shift measurements are supplemented with measurements of collocated Digisonde DPS-4D at SANSA Space Sciences, Hermanus. Nine geomagnetically quiet days and nine geomagnetically active days were included in the study. Waves of periods 4–30 min were observed during the daytime independent of the level of geomagnetic activity. Amplitudes of 10–30 min waves always increased between 14:00 and 16:15 UT (16:00–18:15 LT). Secondary maxima were observed between 06:00 and 07:00 UT (08:00–09:00 LT). The maximum wave amplitudes occurred close to the time of passage of the solar terminator in the studied region which is known to act as a source of gravity waves.     

Statistical analysis of the Thunderstorm Ground Enhancements (TGEs) detected on Mt. Aragats

Starting from 2008 experimental facilities of the Aragats Space Environmental Center (ASEC) routinely measure time series of secondary cosmic ray fluxes. At these years of the minimum of solar activity we analyze the new high-energy phenomena in the terrestrial atmosphere. Namely, Thunderstorm Ground Enhancements (TGEs) and Extensive Cloud Showers (ECSs). Several new particle detectors were designed and fabricated having lower energy threshold to detect particle fluxes from the thunderclouds; some of them have possibility to distinguish charged and neutral fluxes. During 2008–2012 years ASEC detectors located at Aragats, Nor Amberd and Yerevan were detected ∼300 TGE enhancements. Amplitude of majority of them is less than 5%; however, 13 TGEs have amplitude exceeding 20%. The maximal value of observed enhancement was 271% (September 19, 2009). The paper summarizes five-years study of the TGEs on Aragats. The statistical analysis revealing the month and day-of-time distributions of TGE events, as well as the amplitude and event duration diagrams are presented.     

Analysis of a long-duration AR throughout five solar rotations: Magnetic properties and ejective events

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which are among the most magnificent solar eruptions, are a major driver of space weather and can thus affect diverse human technologies. Different processes have been proposed to explain the initiation and release of CMEs from solar active regions (ARs), without reaching consensus on which is the predominant scenario, and thus rendering impossible to accurately predict when a CME is going to erupt from a given AR. To investigate AR magnetic properties that favor CMEs production, we employ multi-spacecraft data to analyze a long duration AR (NOAA 11089, 11100, 11106, 11112 and 11121) throughout its complete lifetime, spanning five Carrington rotations from July to November 2010. We use data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory to study the evolution of the AR magnetic properties during the five near-side passages, and a proxy to follow the magnetic flux changes when no magnetograms are available, i.e. during far-side transits. The ejectivity is studied by characterizing the angular widths, speeds and masses of 108 CMEs that we associated to the AR, when examining a 124-day period. Such an ejectivity tracking was possible thanks to the multi-viewpoint images provided by the Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory in a quasi-quadrature configuration. We also inspected the X-ray flares registered by the GOES satellite and found 162 to be associated to the AR under study. Given the substantial number of ejections studied, we use a statistical approach instead of a single-event analysis. We found three well defined periods of very high CMEs activity and two periods with no mass ejections that are preceded or accompanied by characteristic changes in the AR magnetic flux, free magnetic energy and/or presence of electric currents. Our large sample of CMEs and long term study of a single AR, provide further evidence relating AR magnetic activity to CME and Flare production.     

Correlation between sunspots and interplanetary shocks measured by ACE during 1998–2014 and some estimations for the 22nd solar cycle and the years between 2015 and 2018 with artificial neural network using the Cavus 2013 model

The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft has measured 235 solar-based interplanetary (IP) shock waves between the years of 1998–2014. These were composed of 203 fast forward (FF), 6 slow forward (SF), 21 fast reverse (FR) and 5 slow reverse (SR) type shocks. These data can be obtained from the Interplanetary Shock Database of Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics. The Solar Section of American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO) is an organization that counts the number of the sunspots. The effects of interplanetary shock waves on some physical parameters can be computed using a hydrodynamical model. There should be some correlations between these effects and the sunspot variations. The major objective of this paper is twofold. The first one is to search these correlations with sunspots given in the database of AAVSO. As expected, high correlations between physical parameters and sunspots have been obtained and these are presented in tables below. The second objective is to make an estimation of these parameters for the 22nd solar cycle and the years between 2015 and 2018 using an artificial neural network. Predictions have been made for these years where no shock data is present using artificial intelligence. The correlations were observed to increase further when these prediction results were included.