Estimation of probability of occurrence of F1 layer or L condition using tables and electron density profile models

An algorithm is proposed for evaluation of the probability of occurrence of an F1 layer or L condition, based on tables. Observations independent of the tables database are used for comparison between the estimated probability of occurrence, the formulation used at present in IRI, and the occurrence actually observed. The importance of the inclusion of L condition in the electron density profile model is shown.     

The accuracy of data from ionosondes for the estimation of hmF2 and the identification of global change in the ionosphere

A long temporal series of simulated ionograms was generated with a superimposed secular variation of −14 km/century on the h_mF2 parameter. These ionograms were interpreted by the automatic scaling program Autoscala. By applying four different empirical formulas, four artificial series of h_mF2 were generated and then processed with the same methods used by other authors for real data sets. Data analysis of the simulated ionograms revealed the artificially imposed long-term trend. These results lead to the conclusion, that regardless of the empirical formula used, the accuracy of h_mF2 from ionosonde measurements would be adequate to observe a long-term trend of −14 km/century.     

How Galactic Cosmic Ray models affect the estimation of radiation exposure in space

The radiation environment in space is a major concern for human spaceflight because of the adverse effects of high levels of radiation on astronauts’ health. Therefore, it is essential to perform radiation risk assessments already during the concept studies of a manned mission. Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) have been identified to be one of the primary sources of radiation exposure in space.     

Comparison of the observed and modeled low- to mid-latitude thermosphere response to magnetic activity: Effects of solar cycle and disturbance time delay

The performance of JB2008 and NRLMSISE-00 models, in describing the response of the thermosphere to magnetic activity are evaluated against total mass density retrieved from accelerometer measurements made onboard CHAMP satellite during 5 years. We show that the global low- to mid-latitude disturbance amplitude is correctly described by the JB2008 model for low solar activity conditions and by both the JB2008 and the NRLMSISE-00 models for high solar activity conditions. For low solar activity conditions, statistics based on almost 3 years of data confirm the large underestimation by the NRLMSISE-00 model quantified by Lathuillère et al. (2008) for the year 2004. We also found that the time delay between low- to mid-latitude global thermosphere disturbance and magnetic activity is statistically well estimated by the NRLMSISE-00 and JB2008 models for disturbed conditions. For moderately disturbed conditions however, the time delay estimated by the JB2008 model is too large by about 3 h. For very disturbed conditions, we found different time delays during day-time and night-time, using new geomagnetic proxies with a 30-min time resolution.     

What is wrong with space system cost models? A survey and assessment of cost estimating approaches

Despite several decades of research and refinement in cost estimating tools and practices, the final cost of US space programs continues to exceed initial cost estimates by an average of more than 45%. Thus, program cost models not only exhibit error, they are seriously biased. A structured review surveyed techniques, approaches, models and conceptual tools related to space program cost estimating, to understand cost in complex space systems. Analysis shows problems of cost estimating result from the growing complexity of space programs, failures in managing growth, and mission failures. Although there is greater expectation for the models to accurately predict program costs, the current models used for seeking funding for large space programs are inadequate due to (1) inability to predict future, (2) lack of insight, and (3) process replaces judgment in decision making.     

采用等高线地图的CGF地域表示和推理

采用等高线地图作为分布交互仿真环境中计算机生成兵力的地域表示．介绍等高线电子地图下计算机生成兵力系统地域表示和推理的一种方法．通过对地域显示、通视性检测和地形检测等几个基本问题的分析，表明采用该方法是可行的．具有地域表示范围大、地域推理简单明了的特点，并且地域数据真实、修改方便．这种方法比多边形地域表示法更适用于海上和空中大范围训练作战环境的仿真．     

DBV-RCS中一种提高时延性能的时隙分配方法(英文)

在DVB-RCS卫星通信中,为某个业务分配的时隙在MF-TDMA帧中的位置分布将影响该业务的时延特性。本文分别针对固定速率和实时可变速率业务,对MF-TDMA的帧长度、终端分配的时隙数量及位置分布与业务时延性能之间的关系进行了建模分析。理论分析表明时隙位置是影响业务时延的一个重要因素,位置分布越均匀,越能提高业务的时延性能;时隙均匀分配相比传统的时隙连续分配可以有效降低业务平均时延,且时延不随帧长的变化而变化;在时隙均匀分配方式下,提高实时可变速率业务的带宽分配可以更有效的提高时延性能。在DVB-RCS标准基础上,提出了一种与标准完全兼容的时隙均匀分配方法(TUAM),通过计算机仿真验证了算法的有效性以及建模分析的正确性,该算法可有效地保证业务具有极低的平均时延和时延抖动,使得VoIP等实时业务不会由于端到端时延过大而丢包,提高了DVB-RCS系统对于实时业务QoS的保障能力。     

Influence of time variable geopotential models on precise orbits of altimetry satellites,global and regional mean sea level trends

During the last decade a significant progress has been reached in the investigation of the gravity field of the Earth. Besides static, also time variable geopotential models have been recently created. In this paper we investigate the impact of the recent time variable geopotential models on altimetry satellite orbits and such altimetry products based on these orbits, as global and regional mean sea level trends. We show that the modeling of time variable gravity improves the orbit solutions, at least for the GRACE period where time variable gravity is sufficiently accurately observed by this mission. Our analysis includes six geopotential models jointly developed by GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences and Space Geodesy Research Group (CNES/GRGS) Toulouse: the stationary model EIGEN-GL04S, a stationary version of EIGEN-6S (EIGEN-6S_stat), a corrected version of EIGEN-6S and three enhanced versions of EIGEN-6S called EIGEN-6S2, EIGEN-6S2A and EIGEN-6S2B. By “stationary” we mean “containing periodic parameters such as annual and semi-annual variations, but no secular (drift) terms”. We computed precise orbits for the radar altimetry satellites ERS-1, ERS-2, TOPEX/Poseidon, and Envisat over 20 years between 1991 and 2011. The orbit, single-mission and multi-mission altimetry crossover analyses show that the time variable models EIGEN-6S_corrected, EIGEN-6S2 and its two precursors EIGEN-6S2A/B perform notably better than the stationary models for the GRACE period from 2003 onwards. Thus, using EIGEN-6S2 and EIGEN-6S2A/B we have got 3.6% smaller root mean square fits of satellite laser ranging observations for Envisat, as when using EIGEN-GL04S. However, for the pre-GRACE period 1991–2003, the stationary geopotential models EIGEN-GL04S and EIGEN-6S_stat as well as EIGEN-6S2 having no drift terms for degree 3–50 at this time interval perform superior compared to EIGEN-6S_correct and EIGEN-6S2A/B which contain drifts for this period. We found, that the time variable geopotential models have a low (0.1–0.2 mm/yr) impact on our results for the global mean sea level trend. However, we found strong East/West differences up to 3 mm/yr in the regional mean sea level trends when using orbits of all four satellites based on time variable and stationary geopotential models. We show that these differences are related to the relative drifts of the centers-of-origin between the orbit solutions based on the time variable and stationary geopotential models. From the results of our detailed study, we conclude that the final version of the time variable gravity field model EIGEN-6S2 performs best for the four satellites tested. This model provides the most reliable and mission-consistent sea level estimates for the whole time period from 1992 to 2010. This model is of maximum spherical harmonic degree and order 260 and contains time series for drifts as well as annual and semiannual variations of the spherical harmonic coefficients for degree 2–50.     

氨—空气混合物高浓度气体吸收中的数据回归

本文论述了回归分析在数据处理中的应用，通过氨－空气混合物高浓度气体吸收中的数据处理这一实例，介绍如何将非线性问题转化为线性问题的处理过程，给出建立经验公式为检验所建公式可用性的方法。     

航空直流起动发电机起动过程分析

航空直流起动发电机驱动飞机发动机起动要经历多次换路,分析了每次换路的物理过程,建立了起动过程的动态模型和状态方程。利用该数学模型计算了航空直流起动发电机的起动过程,所计算的物理量包括电流、转速、转矩等。按计算结果画出了动态曲线,使用软件MATLAB编程实现计算。