Orbital error propagation considering atmospheric density uncertainty

Due to the influence of various errors, the orbital uncertainty propagation of artificial celestial objects while orbit prediction is required, especially in some applications such as conjunction analysis. In the orbital error propagation of artificial celestial objects in low Earth orbits (LEOs), atmospheric density uncertainty is one of the important factors that require special attention. In this paper, on the basis of considering the uncertainties of position and velocity, the atmospheric density uncertainty is also taken into account to further investigate the orbital error propagation of artificial celestial objects in LEOs. Artificial intelligence algorithms are introduced, the MC Dropout neural network and the heteroscedastic loss function are used to realize the correction of the empirical atmospheric density model, as well as to provide the quantification of model uncertainty and input uncertainty for the corrected atmospheric densities. It is shown that the neural network we built achieves good results in atmospheric density correction, and the uncertainty quantization obtained from the neural network is also reasonable. Moreover, using the Gaussian mixture model - unscented transform (GMM-UT) method, the atmospheric density uncertainty is taken into account in the orbital uncertainty propagation, by adding a sampled random term to the corrected atmospheric density when calculating atmospheric density. The feasibility of the GMM-UT method considering atmospheric density uncertainty is proved by the further comparison of abundant sampling points and GMM-UT results (with and without considering atmospheric density uncertainty).     

一种提高GNSS测速精度的自适应Kalman滤波算法

在卫星导航系统动态定位中,采用基于瞬时多普勒观测量的最小二乘法确定速度,当载体高机动时,多普勒误差迅速增大,从而导致测速精度大幅度降低。针对该问题,提出一种同时实现动态模型自适应修正和观测模型自适应更新的Kalman滤波算法。算法采用滑动窗方式来建立实时更新的动态模型参数,使当前统计模型自适应地跟踪载体的动态特性。此外,算法提出观测模型的自适应更新方法,通过设置载体状态判决门限,高、中机动时仅进行受动态应力影响小的伪距更新,低机动下添加精度较高的伪距率更新。通过Sprient GSS8000模拟器产生的动态场景验证表明,相对于最小二乘法和常规Kalman滤波算法,提出的自适应Kalman滤波算法能够全面提高载体在多种运动状态下的测速精度。     

空中交通复杂性研究进展

空中交通复杂性是空中交通态势的本质属性，是空中交通管制工作负荷的主要驱动因素。空中交通复杂性的科学评价是实现空中交通精细化管理的关键，也是当前空管领域研究热点。本文介绍了国内外空中交通复杂性的研究团队，梳理了空中交通复杂性与工作负荷、安全水平等相互之间的区别和联系，并详细分析了现有研究的具体研究路线。在分析新一代空中交通管理系统特征的基础上，对空中交通复杂性的未来研究趋势和方向进行了展望。