The characteristics of flare- and CME-productive solar active regions

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) cause immediate and adverse effects on the interplanetary space and geospace. In an era of space-based technical civilization, the deeper understanding of the mechanisms that produce them and the construction of efficient prediction schemes are of paramount importance. The source regions of flares and CMEs exhibit some common morphological characteristics, such as $\delta$-spots, filaments and sigmoids, which are associated with strongly sheared magnetic polarity inversion lines, indicative of the complex magnetic configurations that store huge amounts of free magnetic energy and helicity. The challenge is to transform this empirical knowledge into parameters/predictors that can help us distinguish efficiently between quiet, flare-, and CME-productive (eruptive) active regions. This paper reviews these efforts to parameterize the characteristics of eruptive active regions as well as the importance of transforming new knowledge into more efficient predictors and including new types of data. Magnetic properties of active regions were first introduced when systematic ground-based observations of the photospheric magnetic field became possible and the relevant research was boosted by the provision of near real time, uninterrupted, high-quality observations from space, which allowed the study of large, statistically significant samples. Nonetheless, flare and CME prediction still faces a number of challenges. The magnetic field information is still constrained at the photospheric level and accessed only from one vantage point of observation, thus there is always need for better predictors; the dynamic behavior of active regions is still not fully incorporated into predictions; the inherent stochasticity of flares and CMEs renders their prediction probabilistic, thus benchmark sets are necessary to optimize and validate predictions. To meet these challenges, researchers have put forward new magnetic properties, which describe different aspects of magnetic energy storage mechanisms in active regions and offer the opportunity of parametric studies for over an entire solar cycle. This inventory of features/predictors is now expanded to include information from flow fields, transition region and coronal spectroscopy, data-driven modeling of the coronal magnetic field, as well as parameterizations of dynamic effects from time series. Further work towards these directions may help alleviate the current limitations in observing the magnetic field of higher atmospheric layers. In this task, fundamental and operational research converge, with promising results which could stimulate the development of new missions and lay the ground for future exploratory studies, also profiting from and utilizing the long anticipated observations of the new generation of instruments.     

23rd solar cycle: Solar activity parameters and associated Forbush decreases

We report Forbush decreases (FD) in cosmic ray intensity from January 1996 to December 2008, the whole Solar Cycle 23rd. Statistical analysis is done for only 152 events for which associated solar flare position, flare classes, and Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) speed are given. We applied FD parameters taken from the Forbush Effects and Interplanetary Disturbances databases maintained by the Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowave Propagation (IZMIRAN), obtained by processing the data of the worldwide neutron monitor network using the global survey method (GSM) (A. Belov et al., 2018). For the said number of events, we examine their effect on interplanetary space and the decrease of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) near Earth. We found that the 11–20° latitudinal belt shows more FD- associated flare events than the other latitudinal belts, and on this belt, the Southern hemisphere is more active. The results reveal that FDs and solar flares are well correlated. Statistical analysis is carried out for the magnitude of the CR decrease with solar and geomagnetic parameters.     

Evolutionary features of polar and non-polar coronal holes during solar cycle 24 and the rising phase of cycle 25

This paper presents the results of the analysis of the evolution of coronal holes (CHs) on the Sun during the period May 13, 2010 – March 20, 2022, covering Solar Cycle 24. Our study uses images in the extreme-ultraviolet iron line (Fe XII 193 Å) obtained with the Atmospheric Imager Assembly of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (AIA/SDO). To localize CHs and determine their areas, we used the Heliophysics Event Knowledgebase (HEK). We separate the CHs into polar and non-polar and study the evolutionary features of each group. During this period, an asymmetry between the Northern (N) and Southern (S) Hemispheres (N-S or hemispheric asymmetry) is detected both in the solar activity (SA) indices and in the localization of the maximum areas of the polar and non-polar CHs. It is shown that the hemispheric asymmetry of the areas of polar and non-polar CHs varies significantly over time and that the nature of these changes is clearly related to the SA cycle. We find that for most of the period, the polar CHs were predominated generated in the S- hemisphere while the non-polar CHs were dominant in the N- hemisphere. It is found that the maximum and minimum of the hemispheric imbalance in the areas of non-polar CHs are close in time to the maximum and minimum of the asymmetry of the SA indices (the number and areas of sunspots). The maximum hemispheric imbalance of the polar CH areas is observed at the maximum of Cycle 24, and the minimum imbalance is found at the cycle minimum. These results confirm our assumption that these two types of CHs are of a different nature and that the non-polar CHs, like sunspots, are elements of the general magnetic activity.     

Statistical analysis of the occurrence rate of geomagnetic storms during solar cycles 20–24

This study examines the occurrences rate of geomagnetic storms during the solar cycles (SCs) 20–24. It also investigates the solar sources at SCs 23 and 24. The Disturbed storm time (Dst) and Sunspot Number (SSN) data were used in the study. The study establishes that the magnitude of the rate of occurrences of geomagnetic storms is higher (lower) at the descending phases (minimum phases) of solar cycle. It as well reveals that severe and extreme geomagnetic storms (Dst < -250 nT) seldom occur at low solar activity but at very high solar activity and are mostly associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) when occurred. Storms caused by CME + CH-HSSW are more prominent during the descending phase than any other phase of the solar cycle. Solar minimum features more CH-HSSW- associated storms than any other phase. It was also revealed that all high intensity geomagnetic storms (strong, severe and extreme) are mostly associated with CMEs. However, CH-HSSW can occasionally generate strong storms during solar minimum. The results have proven that CMEs are the leading cause of geomagnetic storms at the ascending, maximum and the descending phases of the cycles 23 and 24 followed by CME + CH-HSSW. The results from this study indicate that the rate of occurrence of geomagnetic storms could be predicted in SC phases.