Occurrence rate of SAR arcs during the 23rd solar activity cycle

The occurrence rate of SAR arcs during 1997–2007 has been analyzed based on the photometric observations at the Yakutsk meridian (Maimaga station, corrected geomagnetic coordinates: 57°N, 200°E). SAR arcs appeared in 114 cases (∼500 h) during ∼370 nights of observations (∼3170 h). The occurrence frequency of SAR arcs increases to 27% during the growth phase of solar activity and has a clearly defined maximum at a decline of cycle 23. The SAR arc registration probability corresponds to the variations in geomagnetic activity in this solar cycle. The dates, intervals of UT, and geomagnetic latitudes of SAR arc observations at the Yakutsk meridian are presented.     

Probing solar and stellar interior dynamics and dynamo

Solar and stellar activity is a result of complex interaction between magnetic field, turbulent convection and differential rotation in a star’s interior. Magnetic field is believed to be generated by a dynamo process in the convection zone. It emerges on the surface forming sunspots and starspots. Localization of the magnetic spots and their evolution with the activity cycle is determined by large-scale interior flows. Thus, the internal dynamics of the Sun and other stars hold the key to understanding the dynamo mechanism and activity cycles. Recently, significant progress has been made for modeling magnetohydrodynamics of the stellar interiors and probing the internal rotation and large-scale dynamics of the Sun by helioseismology. Also, asteroseismology is beginning to probe interiors of distant stars. I review key achievements and challenges in our quest to understand the basic mechanisms of solar and stellar activity.     

Solar activity prediction studies and services in NAOC

Solar activity prediction services started in 1960’s in National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC). As one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China) was set up in 1990’s. Solar Activity Prediction Center (SAPC), as one of the four sub-centers of RWC-China, is located in NAOC. Solar activity prediction studies and services in NAOC cover short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecast of solar activities. Nowadays, certain prediction models, such as solar X-ray flare model, solar proton event model, solar 10 cm radio flux model, have been established for the practical prediction services. Recently, more and more physical analyses are introduced in the studies of solar activity prediction, such as the magnetic properties of solar active regions and magnetic structure of solar atmosphere. Besides traditional statistics algorithms, Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence techniques, such as Support Vector Machine (SVM) method, are employed in the establishment of forecast models. A Web-based integrated platform for solar activity data sharing and forecast distribution is under construction.     

一种定量建立主题数据库的算法

本文利用企业模型中的企业活动与实体之间的关系给出了实体组之间的相关系数定义，在此基础上，给出了实体组的分组算法，从而应可以根据主要数据库分划标准把实体划分成实体大组，形成主题数据库。     

Comparison of observed ionospheric vertical TEC over the sea in Indian region with IRI-2016 model

The vertical ionospheric TEC values obtained from GAGAN grid based ionospheric delay correction values over the sea in the Indian equatorial region have been compared with the corresponding values derived from the International Reference Ionosphere model, IRI-2016. The objective of this work is to study the deviation of the vertical TEC derived from the IRI model from ground truths over the sea for different conditions. This will serve the basic intention of assessing the candidature of the IRI model as an alternative ionospheric correction model in navigation receivers in terms of accuracy. We have chosen different solar activity periods, seasons, geomagnetic conditions, locations etc. for our comparison and analysis. The TEC values by the IRI-2016 were compared with the actual measured values for the given conditions and errors were obtained. The measured vertical TEC values at the ionospheric grid points were derived from the GAGAN broadcast ionospheric delay data and used as reference. The IRI model with standard internal functions was used in estimating the TEC at the same ionospheric grid points. The errors in the model derived values are statistically analysed. Broadly, the results show that, for the Indian sector over the sea, the IRI model performs better on quiet days in off equatorial regions, particularly in the northern region. The overall performance degrades for other conditions with the model generally underestimating the true TEC values and most severely in the equatorial region. The performance is worst in this region for the disturbed days of the equinoctial period. The comparison study is also done with the TEC data measured directly by dual frequency GPS receivers. The results were found to be in general agreement with those obtained by comparing the model with GAGAN broadcast data as reference. This study will be useful in considering the IRI-2016 model for real time estimates of TEC as an alternative to the current parametric model in a satellite navigation receiver in absence of other options.     

Non-stationarity and cross-correlation effects in the MHD solar activity

The analysis of turbulent processes in sunspots and pores which are self-organizing long-lived magnetic structures is a complicated and not yet solved problem. The present work focuses on studying such magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) formations on the basis of flicker-noise spectroscopy using a new method of multi-parametric analysis. The non-stationarity and cross-correlation effects taking place in solar activity dynamics are considered. The calculated maximum values of non-stationarity factor may become precursors of significant restructuring in solar magnetic activity. The introduced cross-correlation functions enable us to judge synchronization effects between the signals of various solar activity indicators registered simultaneously.     

Latitudinal distribution of solar coronal active regions

We studied the cyclic evolution of the latitudinal distribution of solar coronal active regions based on daily images from SOHO EIT for the period 1995–2017. Fully automated software was used, which included the following steps: initial preparation of images in the data series, normalization of histograms and correction of limb brightening, segmentation of images using threshold intensity values obtained from their histograms, scanning of segmented images in heliographic coordinates and obtaining profiles of latitudinal distribution of coronal active regions for each image of the data series. From the output data, we obtained a temporary change in the latitudinal distribution profiles and the migration of activity centers on the solar disk. From the period of minimum activity to the next minimum in both hemispheres, activity centers begin to migrate from high latitudes towards the equator. At the same time, the general center of activity repeatedly changes the direction of migration. The latitudinal distribution of the so-called presence factor of coronal active regions closely resembles the magnetic butterfly diagram, which proves their direct causal relationships. Variations in the presence factor of coronal active regions are correlated with cyclic variations in the sunspot daily numbers.     

How do interplanetary shock impact angles control the size of the geoeffective magnetosphere?

In this paper, we investigate temporal and spatial magnetosphere response to the impact of interplanetary (IP) shocks with different inclinations and speeds on the Earth’s magnetosphere. A data set with more than 500 IP shocks is used to identify positive sudden impulse (SI⁺) events as expressed by the SuperMAG partial ring current index. The SI⁺ rise time (RT), defined as the time interval between compression onset and maximum SI⁺ signature, is obtained for each event. We use RT and a model suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002) to calculate the geoeffective magnetospheric distance (GMD) in the shock propagation direction as a function of shock impact angle and speed for each event. GMD is a generalization of the geoeffective magnetosphere length (GML) suggested by Takeuchi et al. (2002), defined from the subsolar point along the X line toward the tail. We estimate statistical GMD and GML values which are then reported for the first time. We also show that, similarly to well-known results for RT, the highest correlation coefficient for the GMD and impact angle is found for shocks with high speeds and small impact angles, and the faster and more frontal the shock, the smaller the GMD. This result indicates that the magnetospheric response depends heavily on shock impact angle. With these results, we argue that the prediction and forecasting of space weather events, such as those caused by coronal mass ejections, will not be accurately accomplished if the disturbances’ angles of impact are not considered as an important parameter within model and observation scheme capabilities.     

涡轮动叶表面换热特性的试验研究

航空发动机性能的提高对涡轮叶片耐热极限提出了更高的要求,为了更准确地分析涡轮叶片的传热特性,选取某型气冷涡轮动叶10%、50%和90%叶高的特征型面通过低导热光敏树脂材料经过3D打印而成,通过叶片表面粘贴厚度为0.02mm康铜加热膜接通恒定电流加热,使用红外热像系统精确测量叶片壁面温度,在平面叶栅中研究了吹风比(M)和雷诺数(Re)对气膜绝热冷却效率和努塞尔数(Nu)的影响(试验中基于弦长的进口雷诺数Re为8.0×10⁴-16.7×10⁴,吹风比M为1-3)。试验结果表明：M=1时气膜能够较好附着在叶片表面,叶片表面得到较好冷却;随着主流雷诺数的增加,绝热壁面温度逐渐升高,绝热效率逐渐降低;吹风比对涡轮叶片的传热特性的影响与气膜孔出流角度有关,随着吹风比的增大,压力面绝热冷却效率逐渐增大,由于吸力面的气膜孔出流角较大,吹风比增大使得吸力面的绝热冷却效率逐渐减小;随着吹风比的增加,对流换热系数增大。     

半个太阳活动周期内我国中纬地区上空电离层等效板厚的变化特征

本文用新乡(电离层400km对下点是:32.4°N,115.6°E)、重庆(电离层400km对下点是:27.2°N,108.7°E)接收日本同步卫星ETS-Ⅱ的信标资料,研究了我国中纬地区上空半个太阳活动周期内(1981—1985)电离层等效板厚的变化特征,得到了等效板厚日变化、季变化的二维和三维等值图。由付里叶分析和回归方法得出等效板厚日变化各谐波分量与太阳黑子数12个月滑动平均值之间存在弱的线性关系。同时指出在等效板厚日变化中,于当地时0400—0700LT存在一明显的黎明峰。并对出现这种峰的原因作了讨论。