大型双曲冷却塔表面脉动风压随机特性——风压极值探讨

针对风压信号呈现的非高斯特性和传统极限估计方法的局限,首次提出基于保证率和相关性的极值估计方法——全概率迭代法进行冷却塔表面脉动风荷载极值分析,并和传统的峰值因子法及改进的Sadek-Simiu法计算结果进行对比验证。结果表明：全概率迭代法避开了对随机过程的高斯分布假定,相比传统的极值估计方法其结果更加真实可靠;表达风压极值中脉动分量的峰值因子数值沿着环向和子午向变化显著,如取为同一数值则偏于危险或过于保守;采用全概率迭代法得到的表面风压系数极值分布曲线与规范取值相比,迎风面和负压峰值区域极值偏小,背风区域极值偏大,且最小值对应角度相差约10°。     

航材可修件备件量模型辨析及改进

通过对以目标保障率为中心的泊松及威布尔概率模型进行详细辨析,讨论其在实际应用过程中存在的困难与缺陷,建议使用一种适用于各种概率分布的通用计算公式,以更好的应用于实际。     

线性分组码限距离译码器的性能分析

为了提高自动重传请求(ARQ)系统的通过率,在混合ARQ系统中,使用限距离译码器改善系统的性能。在限距离译码时,线性分组码纠正重量t的错误图样。纯纠错译码器和纯检错译码器都是限距离译码器的特例。本文首先介绍了Krautchouk多项式的几个重要性质,然后,用线性分组码及其对偶码的重量分布,分别导出了两种形式的错误译码概率的简化计算公式。由于生成函数方法的使用,成功地得到了重复码、汉明码和扩展汉明码的错误译码概率的解析公式,最后,讨论了Golay码和某些本原BCH码错误译码概率的计算方法。     

使用吊放声纳的直升机应召搜潜发现概率

建立了目标航速为瑞利分布条件下的目标位置分布模型,按照这个模型,研究了使用吊放声纳进行单机应召搜潜的搜索概率的计算方法,并给出了基于圆形搜索方式的不同参数条件下的搜索发现概率的部分计算结果。     

基于POD曲线的预警机雷达检飞概率模型

针对预警机雷达检飞试验中距离取样间隔及检飞航线边界条件的确定问题,以保证发现概率(POD)曲线的覆盖率与精确性为目标,提出基于POD曲线的预警机雷达检飞概率模型.首先,根据POD曲线的覆盖率和精确性要求确定检飞试验拟合曲线所需的采样点数.然后,根据POD曲线的经验分布函数建立检飞试验中最小探测距离和最大探测距离的计算方法,并由此确定检飞航线上距离取样间隔的长度.最后,根据发现概率的统计特性得到距离取样间隔内采样点数以及航次数等试验参数,为雷达检飞试验设计与预警性能评定提供定量依据.      

Analysis on Potential Conflict Frequency of Intersected Air Routes in Terminal Airspace Design

In order to obtain accurate conflict risks in terminal airspace design, the concept and calculation model of potential conflict frequency for intersected routes are proposed. Conflict frequency is represented by the product of horizontal conflict frequency and vertical conflict probability. The horizontal conflict frequency is derived from the probability density distribution of conflicts in a period of time. Based on the recorded radar trajectory data, the concept and model of ROUTE distance are proposed, and the probability density function of aircraft height at a specified ROUTE distance is deduced by kernel density estimation. Furthermore, vertical conflict probability and its horizontal distribution are achieved. Examples of three intersected arrival and departure route design schemes are studied. Compared with scheme 1, the conflict frequency values of the other two improved schemes decrease to 53 % and 24%, respectively. The results show that the model can quantify potential conflict frequency of intersec ted routes.     

成败型产品基于验后概率的Bayes序贯检验技术

分析了基于损失的Bayes检验方法和基于风险的SPOT(sequential posterior odd test)方法存在的不足.对装备试验与评价中成败型产品的Bayes序贯检验,在给定的两类风险要求下,建立了基于验后概率的Bayes序贯检验模型(PBSTM),给出了模型的求解算法和实际验后风险的计算公式. 最后结合装备可靠性分析案例,进行了示例分析,从数据上证明了PBSTM模型优越性和有效性.研究结果表明:PBSTM模型从理论上保证了序贯检验的结论同时满足小概率事件原理和两类风险要求,避免了现有假设检验方法存在的不足.      

Track-before-detect for Infrared Maneuvering Dim Multi-target via MM-PHD

In this paper, we present a novel and efficient track-before-detect (TBD) algorithm based on multiple-model probability hypothesis density (MM-PHD) for tracking infrared maneuvering dim multi-target. Firstly, the standard sequential Monte Carlo probability hypothesis density (SMC-PHD) TBD-based algorithm is introduced and sequentially improved by the adaptive process noise and the importance re-sampling on particle likelihood, which result in the improvement in the algorithm robustness and convergence speed. Secondly, backward recursion of SMC-PHD is derived in order to ameliorate the tracking performance especially at the time of the multi-target arising. Finally, SMC-PHD is extended with multiple-model to track maneuvering dim multi-target. Extensive experiments have proved the efficiency of the presented algorithm in tracking infrared maneuvering dim multi-target, which produces better performance in track detection and tracking than other TBD-based algorithms including SMC-PHD, multiple-model particle filter (MM-PF), histogram probability multi-hypothesis tracking (H-PMHT) and Viterbi-like.     

3D雷达对3D雷达的引导提示性能分析

分析了不同位置关系3D雷达对3D雷达的成功引导概率及引导误差,讨论了成功引导概率随参数特征变化的性质,仿真分析目标到提示雷达不同斜距时目标在被提示雷达中的角度分布及引导误差变化。研究对雷达组网中3D雷达对3D雷达引导提示系统设计有一定的参考价值。     

反舰导弹单发命中概率检验方法

结合武器装备试验鉴定工作实际,给出了反舰导弹单发命中概率几种常用检验方法,并给出了不同检验方法的适用条件,使检验方案确定的试验弹数不仅完成单发命中概率的检验,还能完成其他的战技指标的检验,实现导弹武器系统的全面综合评定。