导弹精度评估的非参数Bootstrap方法

基于目前导弹试验的实际状况,讨论了小子样情况下精度指标的置信区间估计的非参数Bootstrap方法。介绍了Bootstrap方法的基本概念,综合比较了非参数Bootstrap抽样和参数Bootstrap抽样的特点,对基于传统百分位法的改进区间估计方法进行了简要说明,包括迭代Bootstrap方法、Bootstrap-t方法及纠偏百分位方法;最后,通过大量仿真计算初步分析了各种非参数Bootstrap区间估计方法的性能和适用范围,并给出了若干建议。     

基于贝叶斯网络的航空公司飞行安全系统评价

开展航空公司的飞行安全系统评价是提高飞行安全运行水平的重要措施。在对国内外相关研究成果进行分析和比较的基础上,结合飞行安全评价中的不确定性特点,利用飞行安全评价指标体系,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的飞行安全系统评价模型。该模型能够有效地处理专家意见一致或不一致的情形,并对系统进行预测及诊断分析。通过对某航空公司飞行安全运行状况的实例评价,结果表明此方法是合理有效的。     

气流激励下的叶片高周疲劳寿命研究的发展

航空发动机中叶片振动引起的高循环疲劳失效是尤为突出的问题,对近年来国内外关于叶片高周疲劳寿命的基本方法和研究进展进行了较为详细的综述,总结了目前叶片高周疲劳寿命研究的方法和特点.指出开展叶片高周疲劳寿命预估方法研究的重要途径是完善叶片系统在尾流激励下的动力响应分析方法和将概率设计引进叶片高周疲劳寿命评估.而进行叶片系统的振动响应分析,依赖于轮盘-叶片一体的三维实体模型的精确建立和适合于工程应用的流固耦合求解技术的完善.      

涡轮盘低循环疲劳寿命概率分析

大量试验证明疲劳寿命符合对数正态分布,并且对数寿命标准差随应变水平降低而增大;在此基础上,引入对数寿命的线性标准差及标准正态随机变量μ,将Mason-Coffin公式随机化,疲劳性能参数均表示为μ的函数,建立了基于试验数据统计分析的概率寿命模型.对GH4133材料疲劳试验数据进行线性异方差回归分析,得到了疲劳性能参数的随机表达式及概率密度曲线,各参数并不服从正态分布或对数正态分布.应用该模型对某涡轮盘进行了低循环疲劳寿命可靠性分析,获得了轮盘寿命分布,对应最大概率和可靠度0.9987的寿命均与轮盘的试验分析相吻合.     

全向攻击空空导弹的杀伤概率攻击区计算方法

 本文首先应用弹道计算和杀伤概率计算的方法,得到了空空导弹的全向攻击区和攻击区内各特征点上的导弹杀伤概率值,再由规范化处理求得各个规范化杀伤概率所对应的发射点坐标,最后通过选择性的曲线拟合方法获得全向攻击区内的等杀伤概率曲线方程。文中的方法和数学模型适用于各种空空导弹。     

元件强度可靠性的模糊概率计算模型

首先建立了元件强度可靠性分析时基本变量只具有随机性而元件的安全失效状态含有模糊性时,元件的模糊失效概率Ｐｇｆ计算模型,也称广义概率计算模型,在此模型中给出了两种方法,即基本随机变量法和综合随机变量法;然后给出了基本随机变量具有随机模糊性时元件的Ｐｇｆ的计算模型,此模型中不论元件的安全失效状态是否具有模糊性,Ｐｇｆ均可以表示成条件概率     

基于高斯混合概率假设密度滤波的扫描型光学传感器像平面多目标跟踪算法

高斯混合概率假设密度(GM-PHD)滤波是一种基于随机有限集理论的次优贝叶斯多目标跟踪方法,本文研究了该算法在扫描型光学传感器像平面的多目标跟踪问题.针对典型的锥扫模式和推扫模式,根据其扫描特性建立目标的运动模型和测量模型.介绍高斯混合概率假设密度滤波的基本原理.针对原算法在强杂波环境中的低效率问题,借鉴传统多目标跟踪...     

Estimation method for random sonic fatigue life of thin-walled structure of a combustor liner based on stress probability distribution

As to the sonic fatigue problem of an aero-engine combustor liner structure under the random acoustic loadings,an effective method for predicting the fatigue life of a structure under random loadings was studied.Firstly,the probability distribution of Von Mises stress of thin-walled structure under random loadings was studied,analysis suggested that probability density function of Von Mises stress process accord approximately with two-parameter Weibull distribution.The formula for calculating Weibull parameters were given.Based on the Miner linear theory,the method for predicting the random sonic fatigue life based on the stress probability density was developed,and the model for fatigue life prediction was constructed.As an example,an aero-engine combustor liner structure was considered.The power spectrum density(PSD) of the vibrational stress response was calculated by using the coupled FEM/BEM(finite element method/boundary element method) model,the fatigue life was estimated by using the constructed model.And considering the influence of the wide frequency band,the calculated results were modified.Comparetive analysis shows that the estimated results of sonic fatigue of the combustor liner structure by using Weibull distribution of Von Mises stress are more conservative than using Dirlik distribution to some extend.The results show that the methods presented in this paper are practical for the random fatigue life analysis of the aeronautical thin-walled structures.     

战术导弹多杀伤概率指标检验方法

针对战术导弹多杀伤概率指标大样本检验的实际问题,提出小样本条件下多杀伤概率指标的联合检验、平均检验和蒙特卡洛随机模拟检验等方法,并在实际试验工程中得到应用。     

A new remaining useful life estimation method for equipment subjected to intervention of imperfect maintenance activities

As the key part of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM), Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation has been extensively investigated in recent years. Current RUL estimation studies considering the intervention of imperfect maintenance activities usually assumed that maintenance activities have a single influence on the degradation level or degradation rate, but not on both. Aimed at this problem, this paper proposes a new degradation modeling and RUL estimation method taking the influence of imperfect maintenance activities on both the degradation level and the degradation rate into account. Toward this end, a stochastic degradation model considering imperfect maintenance activities is firstly constructed based on the diffusion process. Then, the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the RUL is derived by the convolution operator under the concept of First Hitting Time (FHT). To implement the proposed RUL estimation method, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is utilized to estimate the degradation related parameters based on the Condition Monitoring (CM) data, while the Bayesian method is utilized to estimate the maintenance related parameters based on the maintenance data. Finally, a numerical example and a practical case study are provided to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the proposed method could greatly improve the RUL estimation accuracy for the degrading equipment subjected to imperfect maintenance activities.