A forced ignition probability analysis method using kernel formation analysis with turbulent transport and Lagrangian flame particle tracking

A forced ignition probability analysis method is developed for turbulent combustion, in which kernel formation is analyzed with local kernel formation criteria, and flame propagation and stabilization are simulated with Lagrangian flame particle tracking. For kernel formation, the effect of turbulent scalar transport on flammability is modelled through the incorporation of turbulence-induced diffusion in a spherically outwardly propagating flame kernel model. The dependence of flammability limits on turbulent intensities is tabulated and serves as the flammability criterion for kernel formation. For Lagrangian flame particle tracking, flame particles are tracked in a structured grid with flow fields being interpolated from a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solution. The particle velocity follows a Langevin model consisting of a linear drift and an isotropic diffusion term. The Karlovitz number is employed for the extinction criterion, which compares chemical and turbulent timescales. The integration of the above two-step analysis approach with non-reacting CFD is achieved through a general interpolation interface suitable for general unstructured CFD grids. The method is demonstrated for a methane/air bluff-body flame, in which flow and fuel/air mixing characteristics are extracted from a non-reacting simulation. Results show that the computed ignition probability map agrees qualitatively with experimental results. A reduction of the ignition probability in the recirculation zone and a high ignition probability on the shear layer of the recirculation zone near the mean stoichiometric surface are well captured. The tools can facilitate optimization of spark placement and offer insights into ignition processes.     

爆轰胞格尺寸的统计分析

爆轰胞格尺寸作为可燃系统的本征值,可用来确定爆轰传播时的临界尺寸,比如直管传播时的临界管径、管道突扩时的临界尺寸等.然而,该尺寸的测量具有较强的主观性.为了减少人工测量带来的不确定性,文章采用两种统计方法:概率密度函数法和自相关函数法,对数值模拟得到的不同规则程度的爆轰胞格进行了统计分析.爆轰胞格的不规则程度采用单步反...     

基于双方态势的机载光电探测系统的能力研究

针对作战环境下机载光电探测系统的探测能力评估,通过对作战环境和探测概率特性的分析,构建了机载光电探测系统探测能力包线模型。经过仿真分析,所建立的探测能力包线随着相对进入角、方位角、俯仰角、背景辐射和系统性能的变化而呈现不同的变化规律,基本符合实际情况,同时给出了最佳的探测方位。     

Impact of gravitation on gaseous pollutant source identification

 It is necessary to identify a gaseous pollutant source rapidly so that prompt actions can be taken, but this is one of the difficulties in the inverse problem areas. In this paper, an approach to identifying a sudden continuous emission pollutant source based on single sensor information is developed to locate a source in an enclosed space with a steady velocity field. Because the gravity has a very important influence on the gaseous pollutant transport and the source identification, its influence is analyzed theoretically and a conclusion is drawn that the velocity of fluid is a key factor to effectively help weaken the gravitational influence. Further studies for a given 2-D case by using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method show that when the velocity of inlet is less than one certain value, the influence of gravity on the pollutant transport is very significant, which will change the velocity field obviously. In order to quantitatively judge the practical applicability of identification approach, a synergy degree of the velocity fields before and after a source appearing is proposed as a condition for considering the influence of gravity. An experimental device simulating pollutant transmission was set up and some experiments were conducted to verify the practical application of the above studies in the actual gravitational environment. The results show that the proposed approach can successfully locate the sudden constant source when the experimental situations meet the identified conditions.     

攻击机作战效能评估的顶层数学模型

讨论了研究攻击机作战效能时所需要解决的基本问题,给出了描述战区云层分布规律,地形分布规律及侧向参数分布规律的数学模型,研究了机载空对地武器可攻击区,攻击机首攻概率及最大发现目标概率的确定方法,建立了在目标区存在主空系统时计算攻击机攻击效能指标的数学模型。     

地形仿真实现

在应用数字仿真法研究导弹地形跟踪飞行的撞地概率时,首先要对导弹飞越的真实地形进行数值模拟.在充分探讨了地形模型和随机过程实现的基础上,采用波叠加法仿真了3种典型地形.研究了子波数对仿真结果的影响,说明选取一定数目的子波即可得到满意的结果.该工作对武器系统评估及撞地概率研究有重要应用价值.      

某型晶闸管恒加寿命试验中数据处理的Bayes方法

对寿命服从Weibull分布的某型晶闸管恒定应力加速寿命试验中的零失效数据,运用经典的统计方法和Bayes方法进行了处理,分别给出了在正常应力下失效概率的极大似然估计和多层Bayes估计,对2种估计结果与现场试验数据下所得估计结果的比较表明,Bayes估计的绝对误差为5.89×10-5,它小于极大似然估计的绝对误差2.438×10-3。随机模拟表明本文所给方法正确有效。     

导弹武器的三维射击精度评估方法

在二维命中精度定义的基础上，首次采用三维命中精度的概念，即球概率误差SEP（spherical error probable），进而给出一般条件和特殊条件下的SEP计算公式。阐述了将相关随机向量转化为独立随机向量的方法，并提出在给定脱靶量样本条件下SEP的估计和评定方法，包括代入型点估计、基于参数自助方法的置信上界估计和置信区间估计。实例证明这些方法具有良好的应用前景。     

双星时差频差联合定位系统性能分析

针对基于到达时延(TDOA)/到达频延(FDOA)联合估计定位的双星定位系统,建立了时差频差联合定位的模型并给出了解算过程。对系统定位精度的理论分析和不同参数条件下的定位性能仿真计算结果表明,双星系统可实现对辐射源的高精度定位。频差和时差测量误差对系统性能均有影响,但前者的作用更显著。基线长度越大、卫星轨道高度越低,系统性能就越优。     

基于递推贝叶斯的检测跟踪一体化方法

在雷达系统中,对雷达散射截面积(Radar Cross-Section,RCS)较小的快速机动目标的检测与跟踪是难点。本文提出采用基于递推贝叶斯原理的检测跟踪(Track-and-Detect,T&D)一体化方法提高雷达对这类目标的检测和跟踪性能。针对机动目标,用模型参数更新法来改进递推贝叶斯方法,即利用先验信息或实时估计的目标速度信息实时更新运动模型参数。对雷达实测数据的处理结果表明,该方法在机动目标的平均信噪比约为6dB时,即可实现在虚警率为10-3时检测概率达到0.9的指标。