Multidecadal Signal of Solar Variability in the Upper Troposphere During the 20th Century

Studies based on data from the past 25–45 years show that irradiance changes related to the 11-yr solar cycle affect the circulation of the upper troposphere in the subtropics and midlatitudes. The signal has been interpreted as a northward displacement of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell with increasing solar irradiance. In model studies on the 11-yr solar signal this could be related to a weakening and at the same time broadening of the Hadley circulation initiated by stratospheric ozone anomalies. Other studies, focusing on the direct thermal effect at the Earth’s surface on multidecadal scales, suggest a strengthening of the Hadley circulation induced by an increased equator-to-pole temperature gradient. In this paper we analyse the solar signal in the upper troposphere since 1922, using statistical reconstructions based on historical upper-air data. This allows us to address the multidecadal variability of solar irradiance, which was supposedly large in the first part of the 20th century. Using a simple regression model we find a consistent signal on the 11-yr time scale which fits well with studies based on later data. We also find a significant multidecadal signal that is similar to the 11-yr signal, but somewhat stronger. We interpret this signal as a poleward shift of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell. Comparing the magnitude of the two signals could provide important information on the feedback mechanisms involved in the solar climate relationship with respect to the Hadley and Ferrel circulations. However, in view of the uncertainty in the solar irradiance reconstructions, such interpretations are not currently possible.     

飞行器力学环境参数分布特性及飞行散差研究进展

因各方对飞行器力学环境散布特性、散差量级等的认知和理解存在较大差异,相关标准的规定也不一致,故在实际使用过程中存在较大歧异。文章搜集整理了大量关于飞行力学环境方面的国内外文献资料,论述散布特点、统计分析方法以及飞行散差等的研究历史及现状,提出了设计过程中的应对措施以及后续研究建议,为环境条件的精细化设计以及产品的可靠性分析提供参考。     

粉末冶金镍基高温合金FGH96高温疲劳寿命分散性特征

通过宽载荷水平大子样试验研究了缺陷对粉末冶金镍基高温合金FGH96的疲劳寿命分散性的影响,获得FGH96在宽载荷水平下的疲劳寿命分布特征.通过扫描电镜对疲劳失效断口进行统计分析,揭示缺陷在不同载荷条件下的作用.结果表明:①FGH96中导致疲劳失效的缺陷主要为非金属夹杂;②在高应力水平下（1200,1100MPa）下,导致表面萌生裂纹的夹杂是最差疲劳寿命的主导因素,使得疲劳寿命分散性较大;③在中间应力水平（1000MPa）下,在材料内部萌生裂纹的夹杂并不影响疲劳寿命的分散性;④在低应力水平（900MPa）下,疲劳破坏均萌生于内部,在材料内部夹杂处萌生的裂纹并不影响疲劳寿命的分散性.因此,在高应力水平下的寿命预测需要考虑缺陷信息.      

Investigation of Satellite Trace (ST) and Multi-reflected Echo (MRE) ionogram signatures and its possible correlation to nighttime spread F development from Cyprus over the solar mini-max (2009–2016)

Multi-reflected echoes (MREs) and satellite traces (STs) are referred in literature as ionogram signatures of Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) which is a phenomenon that apparently drives spread F development mainly at nighttime mid-latitude ionosphere. A long-term statistical study has been undertaken to investigate the morphological aspect of these signatures over the lower midlatitude European station of Nicosia, Cyprus (35.19°N, 33.38°E geographic; magnetic dip. 29.38°N) by inspecting all ionograms recorded by the DPS-4D digisonde in the interval 2009–2016. The results underline the systematic manifestation of these TID signatures over Cyprus with a possible (although not quite clear) solar activity dependence and a distinctive seasonal and diurnal occurrence rate with a seasonal peak of STs during summer and of MREs during January to April. Based on the experimental results of the present study, the seasonal occurrence rate of MREs and STs is found to increase by 75% and 56% during high solar activity periods. Satellite traces are well known ionogram signatures of TIDs and mostly correlated to the nighttime spread F formation. The occurrence of mid-latitude spread Fs over European longitude sector normally increases during summer. The occurrences of TIDs are also prominent at this interval of the year over nighttime mid-latitude ionosphere. The presence of MREs as an ionogram signature of TIDs over mid-latitude ionosphere is unique in nature.     

Black-hole transients: From QPOs to relativistic jets

Due to the impressive amount of new data provided by the RXTE satellite in the past decade, our knowledge of the phenomenology of accretion onto black holes has increased considerably. In particular, it has been possible to schematize the outburst evolution of transient systems on the basis of their spectral and timing properties, and link them to the ejection of relativistic jets as observed in the radio. Here, I present this scheme, concentrating on the properties of the quasi-periodic oscillations observed in the light curves and on the link with jet ejection.     

Solar Influences on Dynamical Coupling Between the Stratosphere and Troposphere

We use a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to investigate the response of the lower atmosphere to thermal perturbations in the lower stratosphere. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the sub-tropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low latitude heating displacing them poleward, and uniform heating displacing them equatorward. The patterns of response to the low latitude heating are similar to those found to be associated with solar variability in previous observational data analysis, and to the effects of varying solar UV radiation in sophisticated AGCMs. In order to investigate the chain of causality involved in converting the stratospheric thermal forcing to a tropospheric climate signal we conduct an experiment which uses an ensemble of model spin-ups to analyse the time development of the response to an applied stratospheric perturbation. We find that the initial effect of the change in static stability at the tropopause is to reduce the eddy momentum flux convergence in this region. This is followed by a vertical transfer of the momentum forcing anomaly by an anomalous mean circulation to the surface, where it is partly balanced by surface stress anomalies. The unbalanced part drives the evolution of the vertically integrated zonal flow. We conclude that solar heating of the stratosphere may produce changes in the circulation of the troposphere even without any direct forcing below the tropopause. We suggest that the impact of the stratospheric changes on wave propagation is key to the mechanisms involved.     

Investigations of the Krasnoyarsk Reservoir waters based on the multispectral satellite data

In this work historical investigations and modern results of classification of the Krasnoyarsk Reservoir are presented. The paper presents results of studying the dynamics of phytopigments and other optically active components, using multispectral satellite data. Several approaches to interpreting satellite data for optically complex inland water bodies are offered. Based on results of historical investigations it is shown that the spatial distribution of phytoplankton in the reservoir stems back to the time of its formation. Color index in the red spectral region (CIR) is introduced. A relationship between the color index and chlorophyll concentration is investigated. The CIR, derived from the AVHRR data, has been found to be related to chlorophyll concentration. Based on MODIS data, the waters of the Krasnoyarsk Reservoir have been classified in accordance with their optical spectral variability, using the technique of unsupervised IsoData classification. An empirical relationship between multispectral MODIS data and the ground-truth measurements of chlorophyll concentration has been found.     

Ozone destruction by solar electrons in relation to solar variability and the terrestrial latitude

Precipitating electrons from the radiation belts with energies greater than from 150 keV to 5 MeV have been correlated with ozone data of a large number of stations located within 40–70° N. Energetic electrons have been collected by the low altitude polar Russian satellite METEOR while ozone data have been compiled from almost ninety (90) stations located all over the world within the latitude zone 40–70° N.     

韦布尔背景下ODV检测器的筛选性能分析

研究了在韦布尔背景下一种基于ODV的恒虚警检测器。通过连续地使用基于ODV的统计量和相应的假设检验,这种检测器对有序样本进行删除来估计背景的噪声功率水平。在均匀背景及加入干扰两种情况下,通过仿真验证ODV方法的筛选性能。结果表明,ODV方法在韦布尔背景下的筛选性能是理想的,而且此方法不需要知道任何关于背景的先验信息,且具有自适应筛选的优点。     

新生代的气候效应与碳循环

对发生于新生代的６次巨大天体撞击作用（６５Ｍａ，３４Ｍａ，１５Ｍａ，２４Ｍａ，１．１Ｍａ，０．７Ｍａ）的气候效应进行的模拟表明，这６次巨大天体撞击作用产生的尘埃进入平流层后，可使全球平均温度下降至零度以下，降温效应持续时间最长可达３０年之久，首次在模拟中考虑全球性森林大火产生的ＣＯ２和死亡生物分解生成的ＣＯ２的温室效应，研究表明这两种作用使大气中ＣＯ２增量最大仅达６７％，其增温效应远远低于尘埃层产