Quantifying the role of solar radiative forcing over the 20th century

The 20th century temperature anomaly record is reproduced using an energy balance model, with a diffusive deep ocean. The model takes into account all the standard radiative forcings, and in addition the possibility of a non-thermal solar component. The model is parameterized and then optimized to produce the most likely values for the climate parameters and radiative forcings which reproduce the 20th century global warming. We find that the best fit is obtained with a negligible net feedback. We also show that a non-thermal solar component is necessarily present, indicating that the total solar contribution to the 20th century global warming, of ΔT_solar = 0.27 ± 0.07 °C, is much larger than can be expected from variation in the total solar irradiance alone. However, we also find that the largest contribution to the 20th century warming comes from anthropogenic sources, with ΔT_man = 0.42 ± 0.11 °C.     

Variation in the ionospheric propagating factor M(3000)F2 at Ouagadougou,Burkina Faso

We use hourly monthly median values of propagation factor M(3000)F2 data observed at Ouagadougou Ionospheric Observatory (geographic12.4°N, 1.5°W; 5.9^o dip), Burkina Faso (West Africa) during the years Januar1987–December1988 (average F10.7 < 130 × 10⁻²² W/m²/Hz, representative of low solar flux conditions) and for January 1989–December1990 (average F10.7 ? 130 × 10⁻²² W/m²/Hz, representative of high solar epoch) for magnetically quiet conditions to describe local time, seasonal and solar cycle variations of equatorial ionospheric propagation factor M(3000)F2 in the African region. We show that that seasonal trend between solar maximum and solar minimum curves display simple patterns for all seasons and exhibits reasonable disparity with root mean square error (RMSE) of about 0.31, 0.29 and 0.26 for December solstice, June solstice and equinox, respectively. Variability Σ defined by the percentage ratio of the absolute standard deviation to the mean indicates significant dissimilarity for the two solar flux levels. Solar maximum day (10–14 LT) and night (22–02 LT) values show considerable variations than the solar minimum day and night values. We compare our observations with those of the IRI 2007 to validate the prediction capacity of the empirical model. We find that the IRI model tends to underestimate and overestimate the observed values of M(3000)F2, in particular, during June solstice season. There are large discrepancies, mainly during high solar flux equinox and December solstice between dawn and local midnight. On the other hand, IRI provides a slightly better predictions for M(3000)F2 between 0900 and 1500 LT during equinox low and high solar activity and equinox high sunspot number. Our data are of great importance in the area of short-wave telecommunication and ionospheric modeling.     

Rio de la Plata estuarine system: Relationship between river flow and frontal variability

This paper deals with the application of SeaWIFS images to characterize spatial and temporal variability of fronts in the Rio de la Plata estuarine system over the period 2000–2003. We aim to depict the relationship between river outflow and variability of fronts’ loci on monthly to ENSO-related timescales and the influence of the winds along Rio de la Plata (axial winds) on the abrupt changes in frontal dynamics over synoptic timescales. During the studied period both La Niña (July 1999–June 2000) and El Niño (April 2002–May 2003) events induced significant displacements of fronts. Three distinct fronts were analyzed between river, estuarine, coastal and marine waters of the Rio de la Plata: Main Turbidity Front, Main Marine Front, and Secondary Marine Front. Their number, location and separation seem to be mainly related to river outflow and second, to fresh (>8 m/s) axial winds. During low discharge periods (i.e. summer time and/or La Niña events) these winds induce abrupt changes in the location of fronts (100–200 km) and greater separation between them over synoptic timescale, whereas during high river discharge or ENSO years some of the variability of fronts location is explained by the river’s outflow fluctuations, especially by the high variability of the River Uruguay discharge.     

Solar activity variations of ionosonde measurements and modeling results

The time series of hourly electron density profiles N(h) obtained at several mid-latitude stations in Europe have been used to obtain N(h) profiles on a monthly basis and to extract both the expected bottomside parameters and a proxy of the ionospheric variability as functions of time and height. With these data we present advances on a “Local Model” technique for the parameters B0 and B1, its applicability to other ionospheric stations, to other bottomside ionospheric parameters, and to modeling the time/height variability of the profile. The Local Model (LM) is an empirical model based on the experimental results of the solar activity dependence of the daily and seasonal behavior of the above parameters. The LM improves the IRI-2001 prediction of the B0 and B1 by factor of two at mid-latitudes. Moreover, the LM can be used to simulate other ionospheric parameters and to build mean N(h) profiles and the deviations from them. The modeling of both the average N(h) profiles and their deviations is an useful tool for ionospheric model users who want to know both the expected patterns and their deviations.     

The Lunar Terrestrial Observatory: Observing the Earth using photometers on the Moon’s surface

The Earth’s albedo is one of the least studied fundamental climate parameters. The albedo is a bi-directional variable, and there is a high degree of anisotropy in the light reflected from a given terrestrial surface. However, simultaneously observing from all points on Earth at all reflecting angles is a practical impossibility. Therefore, all measurements from which albedo can be inferred require assumptions and/or modeling to derive a good estimate. Nowadays, albedo measurements are taken regularly either from low Earth orbit satellite platforms or from ground-based measurements of the earthshine from the dark side of the Moon. But the results from these different measurements are not in satisfactory agreement. Clearly, the availability of different albedo databases and their inter-comparisons can help to constrain the assumptions necessary to reduce the uncertainty of the albedo estimates. In recent years, there has been a renewed interest in the development of robotic and manned exploration missions to the Moon. Returning to the Moon will enable diverse exploration and scientific opportunities. Here we discuss the possibility of a lunar-based Earth radiation budget monitoring experiment, the Lunar Terrestrial Observatory, and evaluate its scientific and practical advantages compared to the other, more standard, observing platforms. We conclude that a lunar-based terrestrial observatory can enable advances in Earth sciences, complementary to the present efforts, and to our understanding of the Earth’s climate.     

Doppler characteristics of HF spread Doppler clutter recorded at Alice Springs,Australia

Mean night-time peak power, Doppler shift and Doppler width of spread Doppler clutter (SDC) received by a high frequency backscatter radar located at Alice Springs, Australia from 2000 to 2018 is presented as a function of azimuth, sunspot number, time of year and frequency. The sampled region covers 90 degrees from West to North and includes the northern and southern equatorial anomalies.SDC peak power diminished across all azimuths during the winter solstice from around May to August (local winter) coinciding with the global decrease in F layer density due to the annual non-seasonal F2 anomaly but was generally constant during the equinoxes. In contrast, SDC Doppler width and inbound Doppler shift both increased during the equinoxes and exhibited azimuthal dependence related to the eastward equatorial plasma drift.SDC peak power increased with increasing sunspot number with frequency dependence during winter but not summer. Inbound Doppler shift and Doppler width increased with increasing sunspot number during equinox but not solstice with a strong dependence on azimuth and a weak dependence on frequency.     

Semi-annual variations of chlorophyll concentration on the Eastern Tropical Pacific coast of Mexico

An analysis of the main remotly sensed oceanographic variables was conducted to characterize the dominant drivers that modulate the spatial-temporal variability of coastal phytoplankton biomass in the northern limit of the Eastern Tropical Pacific. The phytoplankton biomass was analyzed using monthly average satellite chlorophyll (Chlo) concentration data from MODIS sensors for the period 2003–2017. Oceanographic conditions were analyzed by considering (i) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) high-resolution data from the GHRSST project, (ii) wind stress calculated with data from the zonal and meridional components of the CCMP product, (iii) climatological precipitation, and (iv) climatological river flow. Chlo time series and spatial variability were analyzed using Hovmöller diagrams and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF), respectively. A strong semi-annual signal in Chlo concentration along the coast was observed: the first peak occurs in winter-spring (5.0 mg·m⁻³) and a second one in summer-autumn (6.5 mg·m⁻³). A high year-round average of Chlo concentration (3.0–15.0 mg·m⁻³) was maintained by a 10 km wide along-shore coast, with maximum values spatially associated with river mouths, of which Santiago river registered the highest Chlo values (20.0 mg·m⁻³). Surface oceanographic conditions showed a marked annual cycle with warmer conditions (30–31 °C) from July to October and colder ones (23–24 °C) from December to April; during the cold period, seasonal wind stress stimulated coastal upwelling. The EOF showed that 70% of Chlo concentration variability was controlled by the semi-annual pattern, which responded to coastal upwelling conditions during cold period, while rivers outflows influenced high Chlo concentration during the warm period. These results highlighted the importance for land-ocean interface to sustain coastal ecosystems' biological production and the major role of watersheds as sources of nutrients to maintain high biological production during warm periods in transitional tropical-subtropical zones.     

Observation of a 27-day solar signature in noctilucent cloud altitude

Previous studies have identified solar 27-day signatures in several parameters in the Mesosphere/Lower thermosphere region, including temperature and Noctilucent cloud (NLC) occurrence frequency. In this study we report on a solar 27-day signature in NLC altitude with peak-to-peak variations of about 400?m. We use SCIAMACHY limb-scatter observations from 2002 to 2012 to detect NLCs. The superposed epoch analysis method is applied to extract solar 27-day signatures. A 27-day signature in NLC altitude can be identified in both hemispheres in the SCIAMACHY dataset, but the signature is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere. The solar signature in NLC altitude is found to be in phase with solar activity and temperature for latitudes $?70°$N. We provide a qualitative explanation for the positive correlation between solar activity and NLC altitude based on published model simulations.     

Satellite-observed biological variability in the equatorial Pacific during the 2009–2011 ENSO cycle

The event of 2009–2011 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides an opportunity to gain insight into the biological variability of the equatorial Pacific Ocean for an entire ENSO cycle with satellite and in situ observations. Even though El Niño and La Niña in general led to respectively weakened and enhanced chlorophyll-a concentration and net primary production (NPP) along the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the 2009–2011 ENSO cycle, biological responses were highly disparate along the equator and attributed to different driving mechanisms. In the eastern equatorial Pacific east of 150°E, the El Niño-La Niña biological change was in general small except for the transition period even though sea surface temperature (SST) showed over ∼5 °C drop from El Niño to La Niña. In the central-eastern (170°W–140°W) equatorial Pacific, moderate change of biological activity is attributed to the changes of thermocline driven by the eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin waves and changes of zonal currents and undercurrents. Highest biological response in this ENSO cycle was located in the central (170°E–170°W) and central-western (150°E–170°E) equatorial Pacific with quadruple chlorophyll-a concentration and over ∼400 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹ increase of NPP from El Niño in 2009 to La Niña in 2010. However, spatial pattern of ENSO biological variability as represented with NPP is not exactly the same as chlorophyll-a variability. Wind-driving mixing of nutrients and eastward advection of the oligotrophic warm pool waters are attributed to this significant biological variability in this region.     

The Big Pine Creek watershed and climate change: A trend analysis of Landsat surface reflectance and PRISM datasets over the last 3 decades

Recent variations in normal meteorological conditions indicate the earth’s climate is changing in ways that may impact delicate ecological balances in sensitive regions. Identifying how those changes are affecting the biosphere is essential if we are going to be able to adapt to those changes and to potentially mitigate their harmful consequences. This paper presents a time series study of an alpine ecosystem in the Big Pine Creek watershed in California’s Eastern Sierra Nevada Mountain’s. Raw Landsat data covering the years 1984 through 2011 is converted to observed surface reflectance and analyzed for trends that would indicate a change in the ecosystem. We found that over the time period of the study, observed surface reflectance shows a general decline across the spectrum while our analysis of environmental data demonstrates statistically significant increases in temperatures. While declining reflectance in the visible and short wave bands are indicators of increased surface cover, the fact that the IR band also shows declines is consistent with a decline in tree density. This study provides a useful insight into the ecological response of the Big Pine Creek watershed to recent climate change. These findings suggest that alpine ecosystems are particularly sensitive to increasing temperatures. If these results are replicated in other alpine watersheds it will demonstrate that the biosphere is already showing the effects of a warmer environment.