滚动轴承振动的灰自助动态评估与诊断

以灰预报和自助再抽样方法为基础, 提出灰自助动态评估与诊断模型, 以评估和改进滚动轴承的振动.该模型用动态不确定度、估计区间、估计真值、平均不确定度、平均真值和系统误差测度等6个参数, 描述滚动轴承振动的基本特征.对HKRB轴承的试验表明, 该模型对随机误差的概率分布与系统误差的类型没有任何要求, 在平均不确定度为最小的条件下分离出系统误差.评估的可信度达到100%.根据灰自助动态评估结果, 还诊断出影响轴承振动的误差特征, 揭示了来自轴承零件制造的误差根源, 为实施滚动轴承振动的生产过程控制奠定了基础.      

成败型与指数型单元混合系统的可靠性熵法评定

利用信息量等效的基本原则, 研究了成败型单元与指数型单元混合组成系统的可靠性评定问题.给出了成败型单元与指数型单元混合组成成败型系统或指数型系统时, 单元试验信息熵法折合的基本模型, 导出了成败型信息与指数型信息相互折合的基本公式, 并通过算例及其评定结果的分析比较说明了方法的具体应用及其有效性.      

Landing of the asteroid probe with three-legged cushioning: Planar asymmetric dynamics and safety margin

The probes landing on the surfaces of the asteroids can increase the scientific return of the exploration missions and also promote the development of deep space resources. Because of its excellent applicability to the uneven terrain and a lighter configuration than the four-legged mechanisms, the three-legged cushioning mechanisms are suitable for dissipating the impact energy and then quickly stabilizing the probe attitude when the probe lands on the micro-gravitational surfaces of the asteroids. Research on the landing dynamics of the probe facilitates to the design of the landing-cushioning mechanism and the optimization of its configuration, as well as the assessment of the landing safety. Comparing with the previous extensive related literature focusing on landing dynamics of the probes assisted by the four-legged cushioning mechanisms, this paper studies creatively the planar dynamics considering the asymmetric characteristic and the leg-leg coupling to understand the landing process of the asteroid probe with the three-legged cushioning mechanism and thereby to optimize the configuration of cushioning mechanism and assess safety margin of the landing. According to the touchdown status, the asymmetric landing modes are classified and the coupling issue in the construction of the landing models is explained. Consequently, two types of dynamics models describing the two-stages touchdown cushioning process of the probe are established. Then, five significant configuration factors of the cushioning mechanism are extracted, and their values combinations are designed according to the Taguchi orthogonal method. On this basis, the maximum safe landing attitude angles of the probe are solved by using these values combinations as the input conditions under the dangerous situations in different landing modes. The range analysis and nonlinear fitting methods are employed to discuss the influence of the configuration factors on the landing safety margin, and the favorable parameter values of the configuration factors are determined. Next, the influence of the ground obstacle on the landing safety margin and several methods to improve the margin are researched. Finally, the complete attitude changes of the probe in two representative landing cases are analyzed. The results studied in this paper can contribute to configuration optimization of the three-legged cushioning mechanisms and safety assessment of the legged probes landing on the asteroids, as well as to provide a reference for discussing the leg-leg coupling issue received less attention in landing dynamics of the probes with the four-legged cushioning mechanisms.     

An intelligent approach for flight risk prediction under icing conditions

Flight risk prediction is significant in improving the flight crew’s situational awareness because it allows them to adopt appropriate operation strategies to prevent risk expansion caused by abnormal conditions, especially aircraft icing conditions. The flight risk space representing the nonlinear mapping relations between risk degree and the three-dimensional commanded vector(commanded airspeed, commanded bank angle, and commanded vertical velocity) is developed to provide the crew with practi...     

GNSS复杂电磁环境综合监测测向与分析评估技术

复杂的电磁环境是电磁辐射源集合与电波传播环境相互作用的总和.针对目前GNSS易受复杂电磁环境影响的问题,研究了GNSS复杂电磁环境综合监测测向与分析评估技术,提出了专用信道化监测方法、比幅与比相联合测向方法、卫星导航信号和电磁干扰信号综合分析方法以及GNSS复杂电磁环境影响效应分析评估方法,解决了现有通用设备在弱信号监测测向、电磁干扰信号与导航信号联合监测以及在复杂电磁环境影响效应分析评估方面存在的不足.该技术能够指导GNSS复杂电磁环境综合监测测向与分析评估设备的研制,为GNSS复杂电磁环境监测保障的工程化提供了技术支持.     

On the evidential reasoning rule for dependent evidence combination

Evidential Reasoning (ER) rule, which can combine multiple pieces of independent evidence conjunctively, is widely applied in multiple attribute decision analysis. However, the assumption of independence among evidence is often not satisfied, resulting in ER rule inapplicable. In this paper, an Evidential Reasoning rule for Dependent Evidence combination (ERr-DE) is developed. Firstly, the aggregation sequence of multiple pieces of evidence is determined according to evidence reliability. On this basis, a calculation method of evidence Relative Total Dependence Coefficient (RTDC) is proposed using the distance correlation method. Secondly, as a discounting factor, RTDC is introduced into the ER rule framework, and the ERr-DE model is formulated. The aggregation process of two pieces of dependent evidence by ERr-DE is investigated, which is then generalized to aggregate multiple pieces of non-independent evidence. Thirdly, sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the relationship between the model output and the RTDC. The properties of sensitivity coefficient are explored and mathematically proofed. The conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process of ERr-DE and the properties of sensitivity coefficient are verified by two numerical examples respectively. Finally, the practical application of the ERr-DE is validated by a case study on the performance assessment of satellite turntable system.     

Precise orbit determination and baseline consistency assessment for Swarm constellation

Precise orbit determination (POD) and precise baseline determination (PBD) of Swarm satellites with 4 years of data are investigated. Ambiguity resolution (AR) plays a crucial role in achieving the best orbit accuracy. Swarm POD and PBD based on single difference (SD) AR and traditional double difference (DD) AR methods are explored separately. Swarm antenna phase center variation (PCV) corrections are developed to further improve the orbit determination accuracy. The code multipath of C1C, C1W and C2W observations is first evaluated and clear variations in code noise related to different receiver settings are observed. Carrier phase residuals of different time periods and different loop tracking settings of receiver are studied to explore the effect of ionospheric scintillation on POD. The reduction of residuals in the polar and geomagnetic equator regions confirms the positive impact of the updated carrier tracking loops (TLs) on POD performance. The SD AR orbits and orbits with float ambiguity (FA) are compared with the Swarm precise science orbits (PSOs). An average improvement of 27 %, 4 % and 16 % is gained in along-track, cross-track and radial directions by fixing the ambiguity to integer. For Swarm-A/B and Swarm-B/C formations, specific days are selected to perform the DD AR-based POD during which the average distance of the formation satellites is less than 5000 km. Satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations are employed to validate the performance of FA, SD AR and DD AR orbits. The consistency between the SD AR orbits and SLR data is at a level of 10 mm which shows an improvement of 25 % when comparing with the FA results. An SLR residuals reduction of 15 % is also achieved by the DD AR solution for the selected days. Precise relative navigation is also an essential aspect for spacecraft formation flying missions. The closure error method is proposed to evaluate the baseline precision in three dimensions. A baseline precision of 1–3 mm for Swarm-A/C formation and 3–5 mm for Swarm-A/B and Swarm-B/C satellite pairs is verified by both the consistency check and closure error method.     

Comprehensive performance review of BDS-3 after one-year official operation

On July 31, 2020, the third generation BeiDou Global Satellite Navigation System (BDS-3) was officially put into service. Here we first reviewed the development history of BDS-3, and described the status of BDS-3 constellation, satellite signals, and ground tracking network. Then we expounded the 10 innovations in which BDS-3 differs from the other global satellite navigation systems. In addition, the latest service performance status of BDS-3 was displayed from a comprehensive perspective. The performance of BDS-3 was analyzed and evaluated from five aspects: constellation performance, observation data quality, spatial signal performance, PNT (Positioning, Navigation, and Timing) service performance, and precision positioning application. We used 14 indices to conduct comprehensive assessment of the BDS-3 service performance. Finally, the main direction of the next development of BDS was prospected.     

Warhead power assessment based on double hierarchy hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets theory and gained and lost dominance score method

Warhead power assessment of the anti-ship missile plays a vital role in determining the optimal design of missile, thus having important strategic research significance. However, in the assessment process, expert’s judgement will directly affect the assessment accuracy. In addition,there are many criteria involved in the missile design alternatives. Some criteria with poor performance may be compensated by other criteria with excellent performance, and then it is impossible to find the truly opt...     

Synthetic damage effect assessment through evidential reasoning approach and neural fuzzy inference: Application in ship target

The damage effect assessment of anti-ship missiles combines system science and weapon science, which can provide reference for the assessment of battlefield damage situation. In order to solve the difficulty of heterogeneous data aggregation and the difficulty in constructing the mapping between factors and damage effect, this paper analyzes the specific damage process of the anti-ship missile to the ship, and proposes a synthetic Evidential Reasoning (ER) – Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to assess the damage effect. To solve the problem of fuzziness and uncertainty of criteria in the assessment process, the belief structure model is used to transform qualitative and quantitative information into a unified mathematical structure, and ER algorithm is used to fuse the information of lower-level criteria. In order to solve the problem of fuzziness and uncertainty of the information contained in the first-level variables, and the strong non-linear characteristics of the mapping between first-level variables and damage effect, the ANFIS with self-adaptation and self-learning is constructed. The map between the three first-level variables and damage effect is established, and the interaction process of the various factors in the damage effect assessment are clear. Sensitivity analysis shows that assessment model has good stability. The result analysis and comparative analysis show that the process proposed in this paper can effectively assess the damage effect of anti-ship missiles, and all criteria data are objective and comparable.