高风险场所安全防范系统不确定性分析与评估

安全防范系统运行的有效性是保证被防护对象的关键。然而,安全防范系统本身及其运行环境存在多种不确定性因素,这些不确定性的存在将导致场所内存在很大的风险性,如果分析处理不当会产生严重的后果。在给出物理系统不确定性模型的基础上,分析了安全防范系统中存在的不确定性因素,提出了层次分析和灰色理论相结合的方法,评估不确定风险因素的权重,实现对入侵报警系统不确定性的评估。     

TIA前机载软件成熟度评估的相关研究

率先引入rFAA（美国联邦航空局）提出的软件成熟度的概念。局方正式签发TIA（型号检查核准书）前,在软件的构型和符合性均未达到最终冻结状态的情况下,通过对软件的成熟度进行有效评估,可以为验证试飞前软件的工程批准提供有力的支持与保障,在一定程度上降低局方飞行试验的风险,保障适航验证试飞活动的顺利开展。由于机载软件成熟度足一个新兴的概念,目前局方（FAA、CAAC）对于如何进行成熟度评估尚未形成正式的、通用的政策性指导文件,国内主机厂对此问题也没有相关的处理经验和具体的操作方法。基于机载软件本身的特点,参考局方在机载软件审查时的主要关注点,提出了TIA前机载软件成熟度评估的基本考虑要素与分析重点。     

On the effect of considering more realistic particle shape and mass parameters in MMOD risk assessments

One of the primary mission risks tracked in the development of all spacecraft is that due to micro-meteoroids and orbital debris (MMOD). Both types of particles, especially those larger than 0.1 mm in diameter, contain sufficient kinetic energy due to their combined mass and velocities to cause serious damage to crew members and spacecraft. The process used to assess MMOD risk consists of three elements: environment, damage prediction, and damage tolerance. Orbital debris risk assessments for the Orion vehicle, as well as the Shuttle, Space Station and other satellites use ballistic limit equations (BLEs) that have been developed using high speed impact test data and results from numerical simulations that have used spherical projectiles. However, spheres are not expected to be a common shape for orbital debris; rather, orbital debris fragments might be better represented by other regular or irregular solids. In this paper we examine the general construction of NASA’s current orbital debris (OD) model, explore the potential variations in orbital debris mass and shape that are possible when using particle characteristic length to define particle size (instead of assuming spherical particles), and, considering specifically the Orion vehicle, perform an orbital debris risk sensitivity study taking into account variations in particle mass and shape as noted above. While the results of the work performed for this study are preliminary, they do show that continuing to use aluminum spheres in spacecraft risk assessments could result in an over-design of its MMOD protection systems. In such a case, the spacecraft could be heavier than needed, could cost more than needed, and could cost more to put into orbit than needed. The results obtained in this study also show the need to incorporate effects of mass and shape in mission risk assessment prior to first flight of any spacecraft as well as the need to continue to develop/refine BLEs so that they more accurately reflect the shape and material density variations inherent to the actual debris environment.     

基于并行蚁群优化的多UCAV任务分配仿真平台

多无人作战飞机(UCAV)协同作战是UCAV参与战斗的主要模式,而多UCAV任务分配是多UCAV协同作战研究的关键问题。针对现有多UCAV任务分配方法中所存在的计算量大、运行时间长等问题,提出了一种基于并行蚁群优化(ACO)的多UCAV任务分配方法。在构建多UCAV空战优势矩阵的基础上,给出了综合态势评估函数;随后阐述了基本ACO算法的基本原理和数学模型,提出了一种用并行ACO算法解决多UCAV任务分配问题的实现方法;最后基于MATLAB图形用户界面(GUI)开发了一种基于并行蚁群优化的多UCAV任务分配仿真平台。实践证明该仿真平台具有良好、开放的可扩展性,且使用方便。     

系统可靠性增长评估模型研究

根据系统在研制期间故障强度变化规律,考虑故障间隔时间影响的情况下,提出了广义可靠性增长评估模型,分析了其参数特性,并给出了拟合优度检验方法;然后,给出了定时截尾和定数截尾情况下,模型参数的极大似然估计公式,采用Simpson方法将积分函数化为求和函数,使得参数估计计算方便,给出了趋势检验方法给出了可靠性增长评估公式;最后,结合发动机故障数据进行了的实例分析,结果表明,模型对试验数据拟合较好,评估结果符合工程实际,模型具有实际应用价值.      

Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

航天器的风险管理及其在环境试验中的应用

风险管理是航天计划/项目管理中的重要组成部分,并已在国外的航天型号研制中受到重视.文章介绍了国外在航天项目中对风险管理的要求和风险管理过程,同时着重介绍了风险管理在环境试验工作中的应用实例.     

关于房地产项目环境影响评价工作的思路和要点

近些年来,房地产开发建设项目已经成为我国经济发展的支柱行业。在房地产开发建设过程中(施工期)会对外部环境产生不利影响,房地产项目建成后(营运期),居住小区对内部环境、外部环境都可能产生影响,外部污染也可能影响小区环境。作者根据多年来的环评工作经历,就房地产开发项目的环评从法律依据及项目分类管理、选址分析、标准选取、评价要点等方面进行较全面的分析阐述。     

定常基线卫星编队构形设计

采用动力学法研究了卫星编队的相对运动特性,根据星间相对基线的定义,仔细推导了星间相对基线与卫星编队构形参数之间的关系,并根据此关系定义了一种可以较好地反映星间相对基线运动稳定性的指标,即稳定度.在一个轨道周期内,分析了三种特殊卫星编队的最大水平基线和最大垂直基线在相同稳定度下的稳定时间.结果表明,这三种编队构形不能满足水平基线和垂直基线同时定常的要求.由此出发,重点研究了可以使星间相对基线定常的条件,并得出了相应的结论.水平基线定常的充要条件为三个约束关系式,垂直基线定常的充要条件为两个约束关系式.由此条件同时可知,两星编队无法满足水平基线和垂直基线同时定常的要求,因此,至少需要三星编队才可以达到此要求.最后,按照本文所得结论,设计了一个水平基线和垂直基线同时定常的三星编队.利用成熟软件对设计结果进行了分析,分析结果表明了本设计方法的正确性.      

基于云贝叶斯网络的运输飞机超轮速风险评估

起飞超轮速严重威胁飞行安全,为了有效评估运输飞机起飞时在不确定性因素影响下的超轮速风险水平,提出一种基于云模型和贝叶斯网络的评估模型。选取抬轮速度、总重、低压转子转速、抬轮率、抬轮时机、升降舵控制量、风的分量、总温8个指标,建立超轮速风险指标体系;运用基于启发式高斯云变换算法和正向高斯云算法的云模型,实现超轮速风险等级软划分和指标离散化,并确定各指标的先验概率;构建超轮速风险的贝叶斯网络,基于所建网络和节点信息计算节点后验概率,通过网络反向诊断得到超轮速的主要诱因。结合实际运行数据进行仿真验证,结果表明：评估结果符合实际情况,验证了模型的有效性。研究结果可为超轮速事件分析、民航运行安全风险管理提供理论依据。