Storm-time atmospheric density modeling using neural networks and its application in orbit propagation

Upper atmospheric densities during geomagnetic storms are usually poorly estimated due to a lack of clear understanding of coupling mechanisms between the thermosphere and magnetosphere. Consequently, the orbit determination and propagation for low-Earth-orbit objects during geomagnetic storms have large uncertainties. Artificial neural networks are often used to identify nonlinear systems in the absence of rigorous theory. In the present study, an attempt has been made to model the storm-time atmospheric density using neural networks. Considering the debate over the representative of geomagnetic storm effect, i.e. the geomagnetic indices ap and Dst, three neural network models (NNM) are developed with ap, Dst and a combination of ap and Dst respectively. The density data used for training the NNMs are derived from the measurements of the satellites CHAMP and GRACE. The NNMs are evaluated by looking at: (a) the mean residuals and the standard deviations with respect to the density data that are not used in training process, and (b) the accuracy of reconstructing the orbits of selected objects during storms employing each model. This empirical modeling technique and the comparisons with the models NRLMSIS-00 and Jacchia-Bowman 2008 reveal (1) the capability of neural networks to model the relationship between solar and geomagnetic activities, and density variations; and (2) the merits and demerits of ap and Dst when it comes to characterizing density variations during storms.     

Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of tropical total ozone under alternative QBO scenarios of equatorial stratospheric wind

Equatorial total column ozone variations with quasi-biennial periodicity are described by paying attention to their coupling with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of zonal wind in equatorial stratosphere. Analysis is made for the 35-year time interval from 1978 to 2013 using the zonal mean total ozone (TOZ) data in latitude band from 5° S to 5° N derived from satellite measurements by means of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). The study was performed using strong seasonal regularities of the wind QBO and the discrete variation of the QBO-period revealed earlier. The forecast of the wind QBO evolution made in Gabis (2012) is fully justified. The comparison between predicted and actually observed changes of the height wind structure shows the prominent accordance, which confirms the forecast validity. It is shown that variations of deseasonalized TOZ are in strong coupling with changes of equatorial wind QBO that coincides with the numerous previous researches. However our results contradict the assumption about quite complicated ozone response in the equatorial region due to continuously varying with time relationship between annual and quasi-biennial cycles and irregularly variable wind QBO-period. The total ozone changes actually observed clearly corresponds to the mean ozone variations calculated for different QBO scenarios and aligned according to the sequence of QBO scenarios already occurred in fact. This close association indicates the possibility of forecasting the equatorial total ozone QBO based on the predicted wind QBO.     

磁暴下的LEO卫星精密轨道确定

对低轨卫星（LEO）,大气阻尼摄动是主要的定轨误差源.尤其在发生磁暴时,求解一个大气阻尼因子的定轨方法已不能充分吸收大气密度计算不准所造成的定轨误差,因而在标校统一S波段（USB）的测量系统差和随机差时往往计算失真.本文提出了一种求解折线型Cd因子的新方法,克服了动力学模型不准所带来的定轨误差,通过与独立的GPS数据比较,定轨精度有明显提高,同时给出的测量系统差和随机差更加真实可信.     

大气噪声条件下VLF／LF通信系统仿真

影响甚低频／低频（VLF／LF）通信效果的主要因素是雷电引起的大气噪声,其发生具有随机性,理论分析比较困难。文章利用噪声特征经典分析模型,采用其低通等效形式在Simulnk仿真平台下建立了仿真模型,并对大气噪声条件下的甚低频／低频（VLF／LF）通信系统误码性能进行了仿真研究。     

An analysis and enhanced proposal of atmospheric boundary layer wind modelling techniques for automation of air traffic management

The air traffic management automation imposes stringent requirements on the weather models, in such a way that they should be able to provide reliable short-time forecasts in digital formats in almost real time. The atmospheric boundary layer is one of the regions where aircraft operation and coordination are critical and therefore atmospheric model performance is also vital. This paper presents conventional and innovative techniques to improve the accuracy in the forecasting of winds in the lower atmospheric layer, proposing mechanisms to develop better models including deterministic and stochastic simulations. Accuracy is improved by optimizing the grid, assimilating observations in cycling simulations and managing a number of ensemble members. An operation-driven post-processing stage helps to incorporate detailed terrain definitions and real-time observations without re-running the model. The improvements are checked against mesoscale weather simulations at different scales and a dedicated flight campaign. The results show good performance of the model without sensitively increasing the required throughput.     

Broglio Drag Balance for neutral thermosphere density measurement on UNICubeSAT

The nanosatellite UNICubeSAT is described, carrying a Broglio Drag Balance Instrument for neutral thermosphere density in situ measurements. The aim of the mission is to contribute to the development of accurate thermosphere models, achieving in situ, real time measurements of atmosphere density, that could be exploited for global atmosphere model validation and accurate short term (1–3 days) real time space weather forecasts. The satellite is inexpensive and swarms could be easily launched operating as a distributed sensor network to get simultaneous in situ local (not orbit averaged) measurements in multiple positions and orbit heights. The nanosatellite is based on the Cubesat standard architecture, weighing about 1 kg for 1-L volume. Atmospheric drag force is measured by the displacement of light plates exposed to the incoming particle flux seen by the spacecraft, applying the original three dimensional Broglio Drag Balance concept to a single nanosatellite axis. The instrument concept and its relation to the satellite bus is depicted, showing that many long term potential measurement error sources and biases can be removed in data processing if the spacecraft is spin stabilized. The expected accuracy in density measurements is 20%. The instrument cost is a fraction of that of accurate accelerometers. The onboard systems are based on commercial off the shelf components, in accordance with the short lifetime typical of aeronomy satellites.     

常规靶场光学辐射测量及其大气效应校正

简要介绍了光学辐射测量的理论以及辐射测量在常规靶场武器试验中的一些应用,常规靶场常见目标的光学辐射特征、主要测量参数及意义。论述了红外辐射计校准的意义、校正的方法以及仪器选购需注意的几个问题。还讨论了辐射测量中大气效应校正的重要作用和方法,以及相关的软件。     

空气环境质量状况模糊综合评价分析

通过利用模糊综合评价方法对某地区的空气环境质量监测数据状况进行分析与评价,并考虑到各种对环境质量影响,经综合模糊性和随机性分析证明:模糊综合评价方法简单,结论客观地反映了某地区的空气环境质量水平,与实际的空气污染现状相符.     

Vertical wavenumber spectra of atmospheric ozone measured from ozonesonde observations

Vertical profiles of ozone have been measured at balloon altitudes. Our purpose is to examine the character of vertical wavenumber spectra of ozone fluctuations, to assess the possible roles of gravity wave field in ozone fluctuations, and to determine dominant vertical wavelengths of ozone spectra. Vertical wavenumber spectra of 12 ozone fluctuations obtained during June–August 2003 are presented. Results indicate that mean spectral slopes in the wavenumber range from 4.69 × 10⁻⁴ to 2.50 × 10⁻³ cyc/m are about −2.91 in the troposphere and −2.87 in the lower stratosphere, which is close to the slope of −3 predicted by current gravity wave saturation models. The consistency of the observed spectral slopes with the value of −3 predicted by current gravity wave saturation models suggests that the observed ozone fluctuations are due primarily to atmospheric gravity waves. At m = 1/(1000 m) the mean spectral amplitude is over 30 times larger in the lower stratosphere than in the troposphere. Mean vertical wavenumber spectra in area-preserving form reveal dominant vertical wavelengths of ∼2.6 km in the troposphere and ∼2.7 km in the lower stratosphere, which is consistent with the values varying between 1.5 and 3.0 km estimated from the velocity field and temperature field at these heights.     

大气潮汐的经典理论及有关现代模式的发展

按照历史发展, 回顾了从无耗无风背景下线性化的大气潮汐方程组出发得到一个二维定态变量可分离的基本偏微分方程及其全球Hough函数波模解的经典理论; 介绍了主要由Forbes和Hagan发展起来的在真实有耗有风背景下线性化的本质上仍是二维定态, 但纬度和高度变量不可分离的现代数值模式GSWM; 概述了近年来针对中高层大气的GCM (例如TIME-GCM, MUAM, CMAM和WACCM) 来研究潮汐非线性及非迁移潮汐等的发展趋势. 在融合理解的基础上对各模式的特点和模式间的差异进行了适当分析, 从中可以看出,半个世纪以来人们在从第一原理出发试图揭示全球大气潮汐的真实结构特征和长短期变化机制等方面进行了持续的努力, 这种努力又是与从利用地基雷达到卫星搭载仪器观测大气(特别是MLT区域的风场和温度场)的发展密不可分的.