厦门机场低空风切变产生的地理成因分析

厦门机场航班飞行遭遇低空风切变的频次较高,危及飞行安全。产生风切变的原因主要有两大类,一是大气运动本身的变化,一是地理、环境因素。本文着重分析因厦门机场地理环境及环境变化导致风切变产生的原因。     

Normalized ionization yield function for various nuclei obtained with full Monte Carlo simulations

Several recent results important for production of ion pairs in the Earth atmosphere by various primary cosmic ray nuclei are presented. The direct ionization by various primary cosmic ray nuclei is explicitly obtained. The longitudinal profile of atmospheric cascades is sensitive to the energy and mass (charge) of the primary particle. In this study different cosmic ray nuclei are considered as primaries, namely Helium, Oxygen and Iron nuclei. The cosmic ray induced ionization is obtained on the basis of CORSIKA 6.52 code simulations using FLUKA 2006 and QGSJET II hadronic interaction models. The energy of the primary particles is normalized to GeV per nucleon. In addition, the ionization yield function Y is normalized as ion pair production per nucleon. The obtained ionization yield functions Y for various primaries are compared. The presented results and their application are discussed.     

Ionization effect of solar protons in the Earth atmosphere – Case study of the 20 January 2005 SEP event

The cosmic ray ground level enhancement on January 20, 2005 is among the largest recorded events in the history of cosmic ray measurements. The solar protons of MeV energies cause an excess of ionization in the atmosphere, specifically over polar caps following major solar disturbances. The ionization effect in the Earth atmosphere is obtained for various latitudes on the basis of solar proton energy spectra, reconstructed from GOES 11 measurements and subsequent full Monte Carlo simulation of cosmic ray induced atmospheric cascade. The estimation of ionization rates is based on a numerical model for cosmic ray induced ionization. The evolution of atmospheric cascade is performed with the CORSIKA 6.52 code using FLUKA 2006b and QGSJET II hadron interaction models. The atmospheric ion rate ionization is explicitly obtained for 40°N, 60°N and 80°N latitudes. The time evolution of obtained ion rates is presented. It is demonstrated that ionization effect is negative for 40°N and small for 60°N, because of accompanying Forbush decrease. The ionization effect is significant only in sub-polar and polar atmosphere during the major ground level enhancement of 20 January 2005.     

Lower ionosphere response to external forcing: A brief review

There are two ways of external forcing of the lower ionosphere, the region below an altitude of about 100 km: (1) From above, which is directly or indirectly of solar origin. (2) From below, which is directly or indirectly of atmospheric origin. The external forcing of solar origin consists of two general factors – solar ionizing radiation variability and space weather. The solar ionization variability consist mainly from the 11-year solar cycle, the 27-day solar rotation and solar flares, strong flares being very important phenomenon in the daytime lower ionosphere due to the enormous increase of the solar X-ray flux resulting in temporal terminating of MF and partly LF and HF radio wave propagation due to heavy absorption of radio waves. Monitoring of the sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs – effects of solar flares in the lower ionosphere) served in the past as an important tool of monitoring the solar activity and its impacts on the ionosphere. Space weather effects on the lower ionosphere consist of many different but often inter-related phenomena, which govern the lower ionosphere variability at high latitudes, particularly at night. The most important space weather phenomenon for the lower ionosphere is strong geomagnetic storms, which affect substantially both the high- and mid-latitude lower ionosphere. As for forcing from below, it is caused mainly by waves in the neutral atmosphere, i.e. planetary, tidal, gravity and infrasonic waves. The most important and most studied waves are planetary and gravity waves. Another channel of the troposphere coupling to the lower ionosphere is through lightning-related processes leading to sprites, blue jets etc. and their ionospheric counterparts. These phenomena occur on very short time scales. The external forcing of the lower ionosphere has observationally been studied using predominantly ground-based methods exploiting in various ways the radio wave propagation, and by sporadic rocket soundings. All the above phenomena are briefly mentioned and some of them are treated in more detail.     

Electric currents from thunderstorms to the ionosphere during a solar cycle: Quasi-static modeling of the coupling mechanism

Conduction and displacement currents, and their sum the Maxwell current, generated over a thunderstorm (TS) with recurrent lightning discharges are investigated theoretically. The aim is to study better the influence of different factors on these currents, which form the link between thunderstorms and the ionosphere in the global atmospheric electrical circuit. The factors studied concern the thunderstorm characteristics (the charge separation current, and the lightning discharge parameters), as well as the atmospheric and cloud conductivity. Some of these factors may show long-term changes with the 11-year solar cycle, possibly realized through an inverse dependence of the cosmic ray flux on solar activity. Earlier investigations have suggested that the lightning-related charge redistribution and subsequent relaxation, rather than the high intensity current, is mainly the source of the energy coupled to the ionosphere. With respect to this, a quasi-electrostatic analytical model is proposed, based on Maxwell’s equations. The currents are generated by a TS modeled as a positive vertical dipole with charges which are first accumulated and then destroyed by lightning. Our computations show that the mean and peak values of the conduction and total Maxwell currents to the ionosphere depend significantly on the charge moment change. The mean currents are also sensitive to the reduction of the conductivity in thunderclouds. Small variations of the stratospheric conductivity (20% at geomagnetic latitude 40° and 40–50% at 55°) with the solar activity do not influence the currents to the ionosphere very much.     

Lower-mesospheric inversion layers over brazilian equatorial region using TIMED/SABER temperature profiles

Lower-mesospheric inversion layers (MILs) were studied using the temperature profiles observed by TIMED/SABER over Cariri (7.5°S, 36.5°W), Brazil, in 2005. A total 175 MILs were identified with the maximum occurrence in April and October and the minimum in January and July. The lower MIL is located in a height region from 70 to 90 km, with the peak at around 83 ± 4 km with the temperature of 205 ± 5 K, and the thickness of 4–10 km. The results show large amplitudes of MILs during equinoxes and minimum in solstices, with a clear semiannual variation. A general feature of lower MIL in monthly mean profile was observed twice a year, one from February to May, and the other from August to October with a downward shift of the top level. These results suggest that formation and long persistence of MIL is an important factor to investigate propagation of atmospheric gravity waves in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region.     

Advanced ensemble modeling method for space object state prediction accounting for uncertainty in atmospheric density

For objects in the low Earth orbit region, uncertainty in atmospheric density estimation is an important source of orbit prediction error, which is critical for space traffic management activities such as the satellite conjunction analysis. This paper investigates the evolution of orbit error distribution in the presence of atmospheric density uncertainties, which are modeled using probabilistic machine learning techniques. The recently proposed “HASDM-ML,” “CHAMP-ML,” and “MSIS-UQ” machine learning models for density estimation (Licata and Mehta, 2022b; Licata et al., 2022b) are used in this work. The investigation is convoluted because of the spatial and temporal correlation of the atmospheric density values. We develop several Monte Carlo methods, each capturing a different spatiotemporal density correlation, to study the effects of density uncertainty on orbit uncertainty propagation. However, Monte Carlo analysis is computationally expensive, so a faster method based on the Kalman filtering technique for orbit uncertainty propagation is also explored. It is difficult to translate the uncertainty in atmospheric density to the uncertainty in orbital states under a standard extended Kalman filter or unscented Kalman filter framework. This work uses the so-called “consider covariance sigma point (CCSP)” filter that can account for the density uncertainties during orbit propagation. As a test-bed for validation purposes, a comparison between CCSP and Monte Carlo methods of orbit uncertainty propagation is carried out. Finally, using the HASDM-ML, CHAMP-ML, and MSIS-UQ density models, we propose an ensemble approach for orbit uncertainty quantification for four different space weather conditions.     

"神舟三号"大气成分探测器探测结果--2002年4月磁暴期间大气成分的异常变化

"神州三号"(SZ-3)大气成分探测器搭载在SZ-3留轨舱上于2002年3月26日发射入轨,正遇2002年4月发生的连续两次地磁扰动事件,SZ-3大气成分探测器测得了轨道舱运行高度上(330-350 km附近)大气成分的响应变化和异常现象.探测数据表明,在地磁扰动期间,不仅发生了大气中主要成分O和N2的数密度值增变的响应变化,而且在进入地磁扰动峰期开始后6h左右在较高纬度处出现了N2的异常增变和O的异常降变.4-5h后,这种异常增变峰和降变谷由纬度42°N左右逐渐推移向纬度较低地区,直至消失.     

对巡航导弹撞地有关因素的仿真研究

研究了巡航导弹低空地形跟踪飞行的撞地概率问题，针对地形随机输入和低空风随机干扰共同作用的情况，研究了撞地概率的仿真计算方法，在给定条件下求出了它们与撞地概率的关系曲线，分析了它们对撞地概率的影响，从中可以看出，协调参数，能有效降低撞地概率，提高巡航导弹的作战效能。     

Deriving remote sensing reflectance from turbid Case II waters using green-shortwave infrared bands based model

The objectives of this study are to validate the applicability of a shortwave infrared atmospheric correction model (SWIR-based model) in deriving remote sensing reflectance in turbid Case II waters, and to improve that model using a proposed green-shortwave infrared model (GSWIR-based model). In a GSWIR-based model, the aerosol type is determined by a SWIR-based model and the reflectance due to aerosol scattering is calculated using spectral slope technology. In this study, field measurements collected from three independent cruises from two different Case II waters were used to compare models. The results indicate that both SWIR- and GSWIR-based models can be used to derive the remote sensing reflectance at visible wavelengths in turbid Case II waters, but GSWIR-based models are superior to SWIR-based models. Using the GSWIR-based model decreases uncertainty in remote sensing reflectance retrievals in turbid Case II waters by 2.6–12.1%. In addition, GSWIR-based model’s sensitivity to user-supplied parameters was determined using the numerical method, which indicated that the GSWIR-based model is more sensitive to the uncertainty of spectral slope technology than to that of aerosol type retrieval methodology. Due to much lower noise tolerance of GSWIR-based model in the blue and near-infrared regions, the GSWIR-based model performs poorly in determining remote sensing reflectance at these wavelengths, which is consistent with the GSWIR-based model’s accuracy evaluation results.