Reliability and reliability sensitivity analysis of structure by combining adaptive linked importance sampling and Kriging reliability method

The application of reliability analysis and reliability sensitivity analysis methods to complicated structures faces two main challenges: small failure probability (typical less than 10⁻⁵) and time-demanding mechanical models. This paper proposes an improved active learning surrogate model method, which combines the advantages of the classical Active Kriging – Monte Carlo Simulation (AK-MCS) procedure and the Adaptive Linked Importance Sampling (ALIS) procedure. The proposed procedure can, on the one hand, adaptively produce a series of intermediate sampling density approaching the quasi-optimal Importance Sampling (IS) density, on the other hand, adaptively generate a set of intermediate surrogate models approaching the true failure surface of the rare failure event. Then, the small failure probability and the corresponding reliability sensitivity indices are efficiently estimated by their IS estimators based on the quasi-optimal IS density and the surrogate models. Compared with the classical AK-MCS and Active Kriging – Importance Sampling (AK-IS) procedure, the proposed method neither need to build very large sample pool even when the failure probability is extremely small, nor need to estimate the Most Probable Points (MPPs), thus it is computationally more efficient and more applicable especially for problems with multiple MPPs. The effectiveness and engineering applicability of the proposed method are demonstrated by one numerical test example and two engineering applications.     

Dynamics and control for contactless interaction between spacecraft and tumbling debris

Tumbling debris has become a great threat to orbit activities. Contactless interaction is a novel concept for active debris removal, through which the tumbling debris no longer rotates freely but is under control. The contactless interaction method aims to de-tumble the debris and then maintain desired relative states between the spacecraft and debris. The spacecraft is simultaneously stabilized through three-axis attitude control, which makes the de-tumbling and capture operation much safer, more effective and accurate. The dynamics and control for the contactless interaction have been little studied in the past years. This paper considers a generic dynamics and control problem for contactless interaction between a spacecraft and debris. A translational and rotational dynamics model of contactless interaction is proposed and the 6-DOF equations are established. The contactless interaction control law is designed with the backstepping method, and the spacecraft three-axis control law is designed with the PD control. Simulation results show that the angular momentum is transferred from the debris to the spacecraft and the debris is thus de-tumbled. The desired relative states are achieved efficiently. Significantly, the spacecraft and debris no longer rotate in the inertial frame and, hence, the safety and accuracy for capture operation are guaranteed.     

Crustal deformation characteristics of Sichuan-Yunnan region in China on the constraint of multi-periods of GPS velocity fields

In order to obtain deformation parameters in each block of Sichuan-Yunnan Region (SYG) in China by stages and establish a dynamic model about the variation of the strain rate fields and the surface expansion in this area, we taken the Global Positioning System (GPS) sites velocity in the region as constrained condition and taken advantage of the block strain calculation model based on spherical surface. We also analyzed the deformation of the active blocks in the whole SYG before and after the Wenchuan earthquake, and analyzed the deformation of active blocks near the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake in detail. The results show that, (1) Under the effects of the carving from India plate and the crimping from the potential energy of Tibetan Plateau for a long time, there is a certain periodicity in crustal deformation in SYG. And the period change and the earthquake occurrence have a good agreement. (2) The differences in GPS velocity fields relative Eurasian reference frame shows that the Wenchuan earthquake and the Ya'an earthquake mainly affect the crustal movement in the central and southern part of SYG, and the average velocity difference is about 4–8?mm/a for the Wenchuan earthquake and 2–4?mm/a for the Ya'an earthquake. (3) For the Wenchuan earthquake, the average strain changed from 10 to 20 nanostrian/a before earthquake to 40–50 nanostrian/a after the earthquake, but before and after the Ya’an earthquake, the strain value increased from about 15 nanostrian/a to about 30 nanostrian/a. (4) The Wenchuan earthquake has changed the strain parameter of each active block more or less. Especially, the Longmen block and Chengdu block near the epicenter. The research provides fundamental material for the study of the dynamic mechanism of the push extrusion from the north-east of the India plate and the crimp from Qinghai Tibet Plateau, and it also provides support for the study of crustal stress variation and earthquake prediction in Sichuan Yunnan region.     

小天体主动附着制导与控制技术研究进展

结合目前已实施的小天体附着探测任务,对小天体探测器主动附着涉及的制导与控制技术进行了系统性的回顾。首先,针对小天体附着任务风险高、不确定性强的特点,明确了主动附着的内涵,并分析了现有附着探测技术在自主性和安全性上面临的挑战,阐述了提高探测器主动附着能力的重要性。在此基础上,归纳梳理了与主动附着相关的制导与控制技术最新研究进展。最后,结合未来小天体探测任务需求,总结了今后具有进一步研究价值的几个问题。     

新型高精度变焦距系统设计

简要介绍了传统凸轮结构变焦距系统的原理、组成及存在的问题,并针对传统凸轮结构变焦距系统存在的主要问题,提出了一种新型高精度变焦距系统,用直线步进电动机替代凸轮机构控制变倍组和补偿组在直线导轨上线性或非线性精确移动,用直线光栅尺替代电位计,完成焦距值实时输出,并对步进电机实现闭环控制。该系统比传统凸轮结构变焦距系统光轴晃动减少90%,定位精度提高80%。     

Orbital debris–debris collision avoidance

We focus on preventing collisions between debris and debris, for which there is no current, effective mitigation strategy. We investigate the feasibility of using a medium-powered (5 kW) ground-based laser combined with a ground-based telescope to prevent collisions between debris objects in low-Earth orbit (LEO). The scheme utilizes photon pressure alone as a means to perturb the orbit of a debris object. Applied over multiple engagements, this alters the debris orbit sufficiently to reduce the risk of an upcoming conjunction. We employ standard assumptions for atmospheric conditions and the resulting beam propagation. Using case studies designed to represent the properties (e.g. area and mass) of the current debris population, we show that one could significantly reduce the risk of nearly half of all catastrophic collisions involving debris using only one such laser/telescope facility. We speculate on whether this could mitigate the debris fragmentation rate such that it falls below the natural debris re-entry rate due to atmospheric drag, and thus whether continuous long-term operation could entirely mitigate the Kessler syndrome in LEO, without need for relatively expensive active debris removal.     

多学科优化下的飞机重量设计方法研究

随着航空技术的不断更新发展,传统的重量设计方法由于未考虑新技术带来的减重效益,已逐渐暴露出不足之处.为探索新形势下的重量设计方法,分析了几种先进技术对飞机轻量设计的影响,初步建立了基于多学科优化下的飞机重量设计模型,并进行了可行性探讨.     

Gamma-ray blazars: The view from AGILE

During the first 3 years of operation the Gamma-Ray Imaging Detector onboard the AGILE satellite detected several blazars in a high γ-ray activity: 3C 279, 3C 454.3, PKS 1510-089, S5 0716+714, 3C 273, W Comae, Mrk 421, PKS 0537-441 and 4C +21.35. Thanks to the rapid dissemination of our alerts, we were able to obtain multiwavelength data from other observatories such as Spitzer, Swift, RXTE, Suzaku, INTEGRAL, MAGIC, VERITAS, and ARGO as well as radio-to-optical coverage by means of the GASP Project of the WEBT and the REM Telescope. This large multifrequency coverage gave us the opportunity to study the variability correlations between the emission at different frequencies and to obtain simultaneous Spectral Energy Distributions of these sources from radio to γ-ray energy bands, investigating the different mechanisms responsible for their emission and uncovering in some cases a more complex behavior with respect to the standard models. We present a review of the most interesting AGILE results on these γ-ray blazars and their multifrequency data.