Space weather in Japan

In Japan, Communications Research Laboratory engages in operational space environment information services as National Forecasting Center and Regional Warning Center of ISES. Data from local observations and data collected via internet from domestic and foreign institutes are used for the daily operational forecast. Fundamental research on space weather issues has been carried out at several institutes and universities, including STE Laboratory and NASDA. In this presentation, an overview of current space weather forecast operations and a system for information outreach in Japan will be presented. Current and future observation programs from ground-base and space will be also briefly reviewed.     

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.     

High accuracy satellite drag model (HASDM)

The dominant error source in force models used to predict low-perigee satellite trajectories is atmospheric drag. Errors in operational thermospheric density models cause significant errors in predicted satellite positions, since these models do not account for dynamic changes in atmospheric drag for orbit predictions. The Air Force Space Battlelab’s High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) estimates and predicts (out three days) a dynamically varying global density field. HASDM includes the Dynamic Calibration Atmosphere (DCA) algorithm that solves for the phases and amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal variations of thermospheric density near real-time from the observed drag effects on a set of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) calibration satellites. The density correction is expressed as a function of latitude, local solar time and altitude. In HASDM, a time series prediction filter relates the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) energy index E_10.7 and the geomagnetic storm index a_p, to the DCA density correction parameters. The E_10.7 index is generated by the SOLAR2000 model, the first full spectrum model of solar irradiance. The estimated and predicted density fields will be used operationally to significantly improve the accuracy of predicted trajectories for all low-perigee satellites.     

1997年1月空间天气事件的三维MHD模拟

以1997年1月空气天气事件期间的观测为依据，在构造了比较接近真实的背景太阳风基础上，进一步利用三维时变的MHD模式，模拟了CME（日冕物质抛射）激发的扰动在行星际空间的传播过程，对地球空间环境的影响及行星际磁场南向分量Bz在1AU的时间经历。模拟结果与WIND卫星的测量进行了比较。结果表明，模拟与观测得到的扰动得到地球的时间、地球空间环境各量的变化及Bz的时间经历基本一致。     

风云一号气象卫星天线反射板表面粘贴铝箔的工艺

风云一号天线反射板采用碳纤维/铝蜂窝夹层结构表面粘贴铝箔的结构形式。由于铝箔、碳纤维的热膨胀系数相差悬殊 ,因此具有很大的工艺难度。进行了大量的工艺实验后 ,在工艺特点分析和工艺实验的基础上 ,采用了合理的工艺路线 ,确定用中温胶双面贴铝箔作为天线反射板的铝箔粘贴工艺 ,解决了碳纤维/铝峰窝夹层结构表面粘贴铝箔胶接层中不能有气泡存在的工艺难点 ,满足了卫星轨道条件下不鼓泡、不脱落的使用要求 ,并保证了天线反射板平面度、孔位精度高的要求     

基于动态人工势场法的多机改航路径规划研究

在危险天气条件下,需要研究航班改航路径规划的问题。对传统人工势场法中的斥力势函数进行修正,将目标点与障碍物的距离以及航空器与受限区的运动速度考虑在内,建立了动态人工势场法的多机改航路径规划模型。模型解决了障碍物附近目标不可达问题,并且适应动态运行环境。算例验证了模型的有效性和可行性。     

战场气象环境数字化采集处理系统设计

设计了一种数字化的战场气象环境自动采集处理系统。采用多信息融合技术,将工控机和多种传感器有效结合,迅速、准确的获得温度、湿度、风向、风速等战场气象环境数据,实现了战场气象环境信息的自动采集和处理,为指挥自动化系统提供实时、精确的信息源。该系统已和部队装备的快速反应系统进行了自动连接试验,提高了军队指挥自动化系统的响应速...     

Space weather and commercial airlines

Space weather phenomena can effect many areas of commercial airline operations including avionics, communications and GPS navigation systems. Of particular importance at present is the recently introduced EU legislation requiring the monitoring of aircrew radiation exposure, including any variations at aircraft altitudes due to solar activity. With the introduction of new ultra-long-haul “over-the-pole” routes, “more-electric” aircraft in the future, and the increasing use of satellites in the operation, the need for a better understanding of the space weather impacts on future airline operations becomes all the more compelling. This paper will present the various space weather effects, some provisional results of an ongoing 3-year study to monitor cosmic radiation in aircraft, and conclude by summarising some of the identified key operational issues, which must be addressed, with the help of the science community, if the airlines want to benefit from the availability of space weather services.     

On the detection of anomalous seismo-ionospheric behavior in the presence of space weather stimuli for large earthquakes

Anomalous behavior of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) prior to earthquake has been observed in many studies. Evidence of such seismo-ionospheric coupling effects suggests that it is plausible to rely on TEC signatures for early earthquake warning. However, the detection of pre-earthquake TEC anomalies (PETA) has not been adopted in practice due to two pertinent issues. Firstly, the effects of space weather activity can affect TEC levels and cause anomalous behavior in the TEC. Usually arbitrary thresholds are set for space weather indices to eliminate TEC anomaly due to space weather effects. Secondly, the choice regarding moving time-window length used to characterise background variation of TEC within the statistical envelope approach has an effect on detection of PETA. While the rule-of-thumb in selecting the moving window length is to have a time window capable of capturing background variability and short-term fluctuations, the length of the time window used in the literature varies with little justification. In this study, a critical examination is conducted on the statistical envelope approach and in particular, to eliminate the effect of space weather activity without the use of arbitrary space indices to detect PETA. A two-part PETA identification procedure is proposed, consisting of wavelet analyses isolating non-earthquake TEC contributions, followed by the statistical envelope method using a moving window length standardized based on observed periodicities and statistical implications is suggested. The approach is tested on a database of 30 large earthquakes (M?≥?7.0). The proposed procedure shows that PETA can be detected prior to earthquakes at higher confidence levels without the need to separately check for space weather activity. More importantly, the procedure was able to detect PETA for studies where it was previously reported that PETA could not be detected or detected convincingly.     

Introduction to Meridian Space Weather Monitoring Project

The Meridian Project is a ground- based network program to monitor solar-terrestrial space environment, which consists of a chain of ground-based observatories with multiple instruments including magnetometers, ionosondes, HF and VHF radar, Lidar, IPS monitors, sounding rockets etc. The chain is mainly located in the neighborhood of 120°E meridian, and is thus named the Meridian Project. It has officially been approved by the Chinese government and will be finished by 2009. This talk will give an overview of the Meridian Project and the proposed International Space Weather Meridian Circle Program.