The Orbital Forcing of Climate Changes on Mars

Solar variability influences the climate of a planet by radiatively forcing changes over a certain timescale; orbital variations of a planet, which yield similar solar forcing modulations, can be studied within the same scientific context. It is known for Earth that obliquity changes have played a critical role in pacing glacial and interglacial eras. For Mars, such orbital changes have been far greater and have generated extreme variations in insolation. Signatures associated with the presence of water ice reservoirs at various positions across the surface of Mars during periods of different orbital configurations have been identified. For this reason, it has been proposed that Mars is currently evolving between ice ages. The advent of climate tools has given a theoretical frame to the study of orbitally-induced climate changes on Mars. These models have provided an explanation to many puzzling observations, which when put together have permitted reconstruction of almost the entire history of Mars in the last 10 million years. This paper proposes to give an overview of the scientific work dedicated to this topic.     

基于三因素模型的企业持续经营高风险预测研究

随着竞争的日趋激烈，企业持续经营不确定性显著增加，尽旱识别企业持续经营面临的风险，对于企业管理者、投资者来说都具有重要意义。现有的持续经营高风险研究依然没有摆脱“资料驱动型”的困境，文章根据三因素模型建立持续经营高风险预测模型。     

南航立式水洞实验技术及应用

本文介绍了南航270mm×270mm立式水洞,对水洞流态显示技术中较为关键的几个问题:如试验模型设计,彩色染色液体配方,灯光与摄影技术等进行了简述,并对其实际应用提供了几个示例,以供参考。     

跃变型介质中原油渗流有限元计算

本文建立跃变型介质中原油渗流的数学模型,可用来描述油层(尤其是低渗透层)超高压注水条件下的不稳定渗流过程及其特征。用Galerkin有限元法进行了数值计算,讨论了介质跃变的影响。     

循环电载荷下大功率LED金引线疲劳断裂寿命预测

随着大功率发光二极管（LED）在照明领域的普及与广泛应用,可靠性逐渐成为研究的重点。大功率LED封装器件中金引线疲劳断裂失效一直是制约其可靠性的重要因素。通过针对大功率LED封装器件中的金引线力学仿真与功率循环试验相结合的方法,首先确定循环电载荷条件下该型LED的主要失效原因为金引线疲劳断裂,其次提出基于电流加速模型的加速因子提取方法和基于应变幅值的Coffin-Manson解析寿命预测方法,最终完成对LED金引线疲劳断裂寿命的预测和试验验证。研究结果表明:所提方法具有较高的寿命预测精度,可以满足大功率LED封装器件可靠性快速、准确评估的要求。      

J2轨道模型对月地激光通信预瞄准精度影响研究

基于J_2轨道预测模型,设计了不同倾角和轨道高度圆轨道月球卫星,通过将J_2轨道预测模型预瞄准仿真结果与直接积分RKF7(8)法仿真结果相对比,研究了不同类型月球卫星轨道对-Y面卫星舱板激光通信终端瞄准精度的影响。仿真结果表明,J_2轨道预测模型可以满足月球极地卫星月地激光通信要求,当轨道高度为1 000 km和2 000 km的时候,10 min方位角偏差不超过40μrad,而俯仰角偏差仅为7μrad时,在一定程度上J2轨道预测模型可以满足月地激光通信预瞄准要求。     

Establishment of atmospheric weighted mean temperature model in the polar regions

Due to the special geographical location and extreme climate environment, the polar regions (Antarctic and Arctic) have an important impact on global climate change. Atmospheric weighted mean temperature (Tm) is a crucial parameter in the retrieval of precipitable water vapor (PWV) from the zenith wet delay (ZWD) of ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signal propagation. In this paper, the correlation between weighted mean temperature and surface temperature (Ts) is studied firstly. It is shown that the correlation coefficients between Tm and Ts are 0.93 in the Antarctic and 0.94 in the Arctic. The linear regression Tm model and quadratic function Tm model of the Antarctic and the Arctic are established respectively using the radiosonde profiles of 12 stations in the Antarctic and 58 stations in the Arctic from 2008 to 2015. The accuracies of the linear regression Tm model, the quadratic function Tm model and GPT2w Tm model which is a state-of-the-art global Tm model are verified using the radiosonde profiles from 2016 to 2018 in the Antarctic and Arctic. Root Mean Square (RMS) errors of the linear regression Tm model, the quadratic function Tm model and GPT2w Tm model in the Antarctic are 3.07 K, 2.87 K and 4.32 K respectively, and those in the Arctic are 3.53 K, 3.38 K and 4.82 K, which indicates that the quadratic function Tm model has a higher accuracy compared to linear regression Tm model, and the accuracies of the two regional Tm models are better than that of GPT2w Tm model in the polar regions. In order to better evaluate the accuracy of Tm in the PWV retrieval, the PWV values of radiosondes are used for comparisons as the reference value. The RMS errors of PWV derived from the two Tm models are similar for 1.28 mm in the Antarctic and 1 mm in the Arctic respectively. In addition, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of Tm are analyzed in the polar regions by spectral analysis of Tm data using fast Fourier transform. The results show that the Tm has obvious seasonality and annual periodicity in the polar regions, and the maximum difference between warm season and cold season is about 63 K. After comparing and analyzing the influences of latitude, longitude and elevation on the Tm in the polar regions, it is found that latitude and elevation have a greater influence on the Tm than the longitude. As the latitude and elevation increase, the Tm decreases, and vice versa in the polar regions.     

基于TLE的弹道系数计算方法及应用分析

针对仅使用两行要素（Two Line Element，TLE）作为数据源的应用需求，研究了基于TLE轨道衰减的弹道系数计算方法。介绍了一种常用的基于两组TLE的直接计算法，分析TLE选取间隔对结果精度的影响；提出了一种基于多组TLE的迭代计算方法，以降低异常TLE对计算结果的影响；从弹道系数计算效果、在再入预报中的应用等方面对这两种方法进行比较分析。结果表明，两种方法各有优劣，基于多组TLE的迭代计算法稳定性更高、受TLE精度的影响更小；由于数据区间更短，基于两组TLE的计算结果对短期轨道衰减特性反应得更准确，用于临近再入时的预报效果更好。     

西安某粘接材料厂室内供暖、热水系统的设计

基于厂方对供热系统的要求,根据供热建筑物、机房和可利用设施的实际情况,采用一台换热器,通过阀门的切换,实现了供暖和供热水的分段运行。将蒸汽发生器的进水与系统补水有机地整合为一个系统,有效地解决了机房面积过小的实际困难。利用自来水的压力和热水箱与浴室的高差解决了热水供应的实际问题。     

Orbit determination and prediction of GEO satellite of BeiDou during repositioning maneuver

In order to establish a continuous GEO satellite orbit during repositioning maneuvers, a suitable maneuver force model has been established associated with an optimal orbit determination method and strategy. A continuous increasing acceleration is established by constructing a constant force that is equivalent to the pulse force, with the mass of the satellite decreasing throughout maneuver. This acceleration can be added to other accelerations, such as solar radiation, to obtain the continuous acceleration of the satellite. The orbit determination method and strategy are illuminated, with subsequent assessment of the orbit being determined and predicted accordingly. The orbit of the GEO satellite during repositioning maneuver can be determined and predicted by using C-Band pseudo-range observations of the BeiDou GEO satellite with COSPAR ID 2010-001A in 2011 and 2012. The results indicate that observations before maneuver do affect orbit determination and prediction, and should therefore be selected appropriately. A more precise orbit and prediction can be obtained compared to common short arc methods when observations starting 1 day prior the maneuver and 2 h after the maneuver are adopted in POD (Precise Orbit Determination). The achieved URE (User Range Error) under non-consideration of satellite clock errors is better than 2 m within the first 2 h after maneuver, and less than 3 m for further 2 h of orbit prediction.