海南地区电离层Es特性研究

利用中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心海南电离层观测站DPS-4电离层测高仪2002年3月至2005年2月的观测数据,对太阳活动下降期间海南地区上空发生的偶发E层(Es)的逐年变化和季节变化进行了统计分析.主要结果表明,在这3年中海南地区Es事件出现次数逐年增加;Esr,Esq出现最频繁,其次是Esr,而Esc和Esf出现次数较少,出现次数最少的是Esh;Es事件在夏季出现最为频繁,秋季和冬季次之,春季最为稀少;各季节不同类型Es事件的出现率也不同,其中Esl和Esq一般在各季节占主导地位,Esr其次,Esc,Esf和Esh出现次数较少,尤其是Esf在秋季几乎没有出现.这些结果对于进一步研究Es产生的物理机制提供了探测基础,同时对于电离层空间天气预报模型的建立也具有重要的意义.      

高拱坝失效模式与失效概率

为克服高拱坝确定性安全评价中不考虑随机性、不进行风险分析的弊端,提出研究超静定结构高拱坝的失效模式、利用失效概率与失效风险值对高拱坝进行风险评价。在分析洪水、地震和材料老化等造成高拱坝失效原因的基础上,利用故障树分析法探索出高拱坝具有失稳溃坝、剪滑垮坝、超量开裂以及人为毁坝等4种主要失效模式;从产生载荷参数随机数、获取随机变量的分布规律和建立失效模式的状态函数等方面研究了高拱坝单个失效模式与系统失效概率的计算方法。计算了某高拱坝剪滑失效模式的失效概率。     

Estimating sea level rise around Australia using a new approach to account for low frequency climate signals

Regional sea level studies help to identify the vulnerable areas to the sea level rise. This study investigates the impact of climate modes on sea level variations and trends around Australia using altimetry data, climate indices, and sea level records from tide gauge stations. Here, we show that the sea level variations are negatively correlated with climate indices to the north and west of Australia. The spectral analyses of the climate indices and tide gauge data suggest that a low frequency signal with a period of 11 years emerges during the mid 1980s. Since the 25-year length of the satellite altimetry record is yet too short to detect low frequency signals, their effect on the estimation of regional sea level trend is unknown. Therefore, we estimate the sea level trend with consideration of this signal and using a two-step method. All signals with periods shorter than 7.5 years are first removed from sea level time series and then the trend is estimated using the parametric model that includes the 11-year signal. The skill of the parametric model in explaining the variations in sea level anomaly validates the presence of the 11-year signal detected in the spectrograms of the tide gauge data and climate indices. The average sea level trend for the study area is estimated as 3.85 ± 0.15 mm/year.     

非齐次Poisson过程的若干新性质

本文在一些文献的基础上,进一步讨论非齐次Poisson过程的某些性质,给出了若干新性质。 设{N(t),t≥0}是累积强度为的非齐次Poisson过程。迄今的文献(如[1][2]等)指出,(?)n≥1,前n个到达时刻τ_1,τ_2,…,τ_n的联合概率密度为 本文定理1指出,上式不仅是必要的,而且是充分的,并给出了充分性的证明。从而,得到了描写过程统计规律的一个刻画。然后,在N(t_i)=n_i(i=1,…,k,0相似文献   

空间碎片撞击概率分析软件开发、校验与应用

航天器空间碎片撞击概率分析软件是我国独立设计开发的"空间碎片防护设计软件包"的重要组成部分。本文简要介绍了撞击概率分析软件的主要功能模块组成;重点对该软件的正确性进行了国际标准工况校验,并给出工程应用算例。     

基于离散分数布朗随机场模型的景象适配性分析方法

首先阐述了在自然景象的齐次平稳高斯随机场模型下进行景象适配性分析的不足；然后建立了景象的离散分数布朗随机场模型，在小波多分辨率分析的基础上提取了分形特征；接着推导了景象的分形特征与基准子图的二维相关性之间的关系，并提出了基于分形特征的景象适配性分析方法；最后通过大量仿真试验验证了分形特征和基准图的正确匹配概率之间的关系，对于景象匹配区的选择具有一定的实用价值。     

引战系统数学仿真中战斗部仿真的初步实现

研究了某导弹引战系统数学仿真中破片式战斗部仿真的实现。根据目标易损性,用蒙特卡罗法计算了战斗部对空中目标的杀伤作用,给出了炸点定位、破片飞行动力学系数、易损舱覆盖面积、杀伤区参数、破片对易损舱作用和易损舱杀伤概率的计算模型,并由此获得了目标杀伤概率和导弹单发杀伤概率。介绍了设计的引战系统数学仿真模型。该模型的作用和有效性在该导弹的闭合回路靶试中获得了验证。     

一种组合型的探干一体化信号设计分析

针对雷达信号资源利用率有待提升、低截获性能不足的问题,提出 1种复合调制的创新型探干一体化信号波形。线性调频信号本身具有良好的低截获性能,伪随机码序列分量具有较好的干扰性,同时又能一定程度上扩展信号带宽,两者的复合调制信号具有良好的探测和干扰性能。对基于 LFM的探干一体化信号波形进行了调制原理分析,并分别从时域、频域、功率谱、模糊函数、自相关特性等角度分析其探测、干扰特性。仿真实验证明,相较于单一调制的线性调频信号,一体化信号具有更宽的频带、更优良的干扰特性和探测性能,同时,有更高效的雷达资源利用率。     

Tide variation monitoring based improved GNSS-MR by empirical mode decomposition

Global Navigation Satellite System multipath reflectometry (GNSS-MR) technology has great potential for monitoring tide level changes. GNSS-MR techniques usually extract signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) residual sequences using quadratic polynomials; however, such algorithms are affected considerably by satellite elevation angles. To improve the stability and accuracy of an SNR residual sequence, this study proposed an SNR signal decomposition method based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD). First, the SNR signal is decomposed by EMD, following which the SNR residual sequence is obtained by combining the corresponding intrinsic mode function with the frequency range of the coherent signal. Second, the Lomb–Scargle spectrum is analyzed to obtain the frequency of the SNR residual sequence. Finally, the SNR frequency is converted into the tide height. To verify the validity of the SNR residual sequence obtained by EMD, the algorithm performance was assessed using multigroup satellite elevation angle intervals with measured data from two station, SC02 in the United States and RSBY in Australia. Experimental results demonstrated that the accuracy of the improved algorithm was improved in the low-elevation range. The improved algorithm demonstrated high monitoring accuracy, and the effective number was not less than 80% of the total in SC02, which means it could effectively describe the trend of the tide with accuracy of approximately 10 cm, meanwhile, the RMS error of RSBY could be reduced by 30 cm, to the maximum extent. The EMD method effectively expands the range of available GNSS-MR elevations, avoids the loss of effective information, enhances considerably the utilization rate of GNSS data, and improves the accuracy of GNSS-MR tide level monitoring.     

Effects of sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field on the upper mesosphere–lower thermosphere dynamics

In this paper we study the influence of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity changes caused by the Earth passing through the IMF sector boundary on the dynamic processes taking place in neutral atmosphere within the altitude interval of the upper mesosphere–lower thermosphere (83–101 km). The analysis has revealed the influence of the IMF sector structure on dynamics of the upper mesosphere–lower thermosphere. There has been a significant seasonal variation of the wind reaction to the IMF polarity changes observed. The influence of the IMF polarity changes on neutral atmosphere dynamics within the altitude range of 83–101 km is most pronounced in the zonal component of neural wind when the IMF polarity changes from negative to positive in all the seasons except for spring and when IMF polarity changes from positive to negative – in spring only.