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《Advances in Space Research (includes Cospar's Information Bulletin, Space Research Today)》2023,71(1):539-555
The number of Earth orbiting objects is constantly growing, and some orbital regions are becoming risky environments for space assets of interest, which are increasingly threatened by accidental collisions with other objects, especially in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO). Collision risk assessment is performed by various methods, both covariance and non-covariance based. The Cube algorithm is a non-covariance-based method used to estimate the collision rates between space objects, whose concept consists in dividing the space in cubes of fixed dimension and, at each time instant, checking if two or more objects share the same cube. Up to now its application has been limited to the long-term scenarios of orbital debris evolutionary models, where considering the uncertainties is not necessary and impractical. Within operative contexts, instead, medium-term collision risk analysis may be an important task, in which the propagation-related uncertainties play a prominent role, but the timescale poses challenges for the application of standard covariance-based conjunction analysis techniques. In this framework, this paper presents an approach for the evaluation of the medium-term collision frequency for objects in LEO, called Uncertainty-aware Cube method. It is a modified version of the Cube, able to take the possible errors in the space objects’ position into account for the detection of the conjunctions. As an object’s orbit is propagated, the along-track position error grows more and more, and each object could potentially be in a different position with respect to the one determined by numerical propagation and, thus, in a different cube. Considering the uncertainties, at each time instant the algorithm associates more than one cube to each object and checks if they share at least one cube. If so, a conjunction is detected and a degree of confidence is evaluated. The performance of the method is assessed in different LEO scenarios and compared to the original Cube method. 相似文献
903.
地空导弹武器系统射击效能评估模型研究 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
地空导弹武器系统射击效能评估是防空作战中必须进行的环节,受多种因素的综合制约,对其进行科学的定量计算分析,将会对防空作战产生重大的影响。文中应用模糊数学中的模糊综合评判方法,建立了射击效能评估的数学模型,并引入"5分制"的量化方法对评估结果进行了量化处理。最后应用该模型对一实例进行了分析,得到了满意的结果。此模型可为防空作站指挥人员提供重要的决策依据。 相似文献
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Aviation and aerospace system are typical Phased-Mission Systems(PMSs) featured with varying configuration, phased load condition and cross phase failure correlation. The coupling effect of Functional Dependency(FDEP) and Physical Dependency(PDEP) has a unique influence on the failure behavior of PMS. In this article, the coupling effect is analyzed, and the degradation of components is modeled with the positive drift wiener process, in which the drift coefficient is related to environmental con... 相似文献
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目前研究大跨度桥梁涡振性能的主要手段是节段模型风洞试验,而如何利用试验结果对桥梁进行全面细致的评价也需予以关注。以某大跨度悬索桥为工程背景,在阻塞度较小的XNJD-3大型风洞中进行1∶20大比例尺节段模型涡激振动试验,分析了阻尼、风迎角等因素对涡振响应的影响。最后考虑高阶振型的影响,将振幅换算到高阶模态,引入《公路桥梁抗风设计规范》以及英国BS5400规范对桥梁的涡激振动性能进行评价,为今后利用节段模型试验结果来评价实桥的涡振性能提供了借鉴。 相似文献
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