一种复杂系统的预测方法

提出了一种适用于复杂系统的预测方法——多因素关联预测,并以战斗机机体费用预测作为算例。     

贝叶斯回归支持向量机的软测量建模方法

提出了一种基于贝叶斯证据框架的回归型支持向量机的参数选择和软测量建模方法。证据框架的第1层推理用来解释支持向量机的训练。证据框架的第2和第3层推理用于自动调整正则化参数和核参数并使其接近最优值。然后,将这种基于贝叶斯证据框架的回归型支持向量机用于估计聚丙烯腈生产过程的质量指标。仿真结果表明了该方法的有效性。     

高速风洞超大迎角试验技术初步研究

大迎角风洞试验技术是先进高机动飞行器研制必需的关键技术。气动中心发展的高速风洞超大迎角试验技术 ,包括大迎角机构、模型、天平等。 1 .2m风洞超大迎角试验结果与 2 .4m量级的大风洞试验数据具有较好的一致性 ,试验精度基本达到了××标准对小迎角试验精度的要求 ,表明 1 .2m风洞超大迎角试验技术研究获得了成功。     

浅析检查方法的选择对维修成本的影响

维修工作贯穿于飞机的整个生命周期,产生高额的维修成本,如何降低维修成本是航空公司面临的一个重要课题。本文从检查方法和损伤容限概念的角度出发,详细阐述了在保证飞机安全的前提下,如何降低飞机维修成本。     

基于AHP-Entropy 综合权重法的航空四站装备保障安全评价

针对航空四站装备保障安全评价问题,提出了基于层次分析法和熵权法的综合权重模糊评价模型。在构 建航空四站装备保障安全评价指标体系的基础上,综合利用层次分析法、熵权法的优点,改进了权重确立方法。该 方法将影响因素的主观性与客观性相结合,得出各指标综合权重。通过模糊综合评价法对某航空四站装备保障实 例分析,结果表明该权重确立法客观合理,可为航空四站装备保障风险控制提供判断依据。     

The Hidden Costs of Reliability and Failure in Launch Systems

In comparing the costs of different launch vehicles, the possibility of the risk of failure is assumed to be accounted for by the cost of insurance. The satellite may be insured against loss during launch, and the launch services provider may offer a free relaunch. However, actual costs of reliability and failure extend beyond this. Each failure necessitates an investigation and a get well programme by the operating agency, while putting the operations team on hold until services can resume. A commercial operator may also lose customer revenue and actual customers through loss of confidence or unavailability. Such costs tend to be hidden, and not evaluated in assessing the effectiveness of a system, but count towards total costs. Failure investigations help to improve system reliability, but this could equally have been achieved by expenditure in development and qualification. Reusable launch vehicles will have different costs associated with reliability and failure. The relationship between reliability and cost, properly assessed, ought to influence the design of both expendable and reusable launch systems.     

Z1Cr18Ni9Ti不锈钢法兰的铸造工艺研究

本文介绍了一种Z1Cr18Ni9Ti零件的制造方法，即用铸造方法。这种方法可以节省材料，提高效率，降低成本，并在此基础上探讨了有效的熔炼和铸造工艺。     

Cost Engineering – The new paradigm for space launch vehicle design

The paper describes the basic definition and application of 'Cost Engineering' which means to design a vehicle system for minimum development cost and/or for minimum operations cost. This is important now and for the future since space transportation has become primarily a commercial business in contrast to the past where it has been mainly a subject of military power and national prestige. Several examples are presented for minimum-cost space launch vehicle configurations, such as increasing vehicle size and/or the use of less efficient rocket engines in order to reduce development and operations cost. Further a cost comparison is presented on single-stage (SSTO)-vehicles vs. two-stage launchers which shows that SSTOs have lower development and operations cost although they are larger, respectively have a higher lift-off mass than two-stage vehicles with the same performance. The design of a space tourism-dedicated launch vehicle is an extreme challenge for a cost-engineered vehicle design in order to achieve cost per seat not higher than $50,000. Finally an outlook is presented on the different options for manned Earth-to-Moon transportation modes and vehicles – another most important application of 'cost engineering', taking into account the large cost of such a future venture.     

伴飞诱饵支援条件下无人飞行器协同作战效能研究

针对复杂的威胁环境，介绍了伴飞诱饵在体系作战条件下的应用情况；基于排队论的突防概率模型，研究了伴飞诱饵支援条件下，无人飞行器的协同突防概率和效费比：提出了作战体系作战时效性的概念；建立了火力对抗条件下无人飞行器打击防空导弹防御体系的Lanchester方程，利用所建模型分析了伴飞诱饵对作战时效性的贡献。研究表明，排队论和Lanchester方程用于伴飞诱饵条件下的无人飞行器协同作战效能研究是有效的。     

基于Web的复杂武器装备采办综合集成研讨厅的研究

以飞机采办项目中的决策支持为研究对象,在分析综合集成研讨厅在面向飞机的武器装备采办系统中的重要地位的基础上,提出了一种基于Web、面向飞机的武器装备采办综合集成研讨厅的体系结构,分析讨论了实现综合集成研讨厅的关键点,并设计开发了基于Web的武器装备采办综合集成研讨厅原型系统.本文通过研究证实,综合集成研讨厅在面向飞机的...