民机可靠性数据分析系统设计与开发

可靠性数据的缺乏是制约民用飞机设计研发和系统验证工作的瓶颈之一。针对这一不足,本文提出了民机可靠性数据收集的方法与途径,开发了基于数据挖掘技术基础数据分析处理方法,详细设计了系统的结构和功能模块划分,阐明了数据处理的流程。     

飞行器典型热密封结构

对航天飞机、X-38和X-51等飞行器的热密封结构进行了综合评述.分析了机身TPS、机身开口部位及控制面三个安装部位的热密封结构特点,综述了其热密封组件的研究历程和使用现状.     

A new structural reliability analysis method in presence of mixed uncertainty variables

For structures with both random and fuzzy uncertainty, this paper presents a novel method for determining the membership function in fuzzy reliability with the Automatic Updating Extreme Response Surface (AUERS) method. In the proposed method, fuzzy variables are initially converted into a value domain under the given cut level and the extreme point in the domain where the reliability reaches its extreme value is considered. Second, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to determine the extreme point according to the extreme responses for different sets of random sample inputs. A kriging response surface is subsequently constructed between the random variables and the corresponding extreme points. An automatic updating strategy is then introduced based on the Relative Mean Square Predicted Error (RMSPE) before performing every iteration of reliability analysis. By adding new sample points, the approximate quality of the kriging response surface is improved. Finally, reliability analysis is used to determine the reliability bound under the given cut level. The proposed method assures the accuracy and computation efficiency of the mixed uncertainty reliability analysis results while it prevents the solution from becoming trapped in a local optimum, which occurs in classical optimization methods. Two example analyses are used to demonstrate the validity and advantages of the proposed method.     

Sealing reliability modeling of aviation seal based on interval uncertainty method and multidimensional response surface

Many variables affect the sealing performance, and their distribution characteristics are difficult to obtain with probabilistic methods owing to the high cost involved. Numerous problems in engineering are similar due to the appearance of small-sample parameters. In this study, the sealing reliability of an aviation seal was defined as the research object, and an interval uncertainty method and multidimensional response surface were proposed to calculate the sealing reliability.Based on this, we first analyzed the failure mechanism of the aviation seal and established a leakage rate model. Then, based on the non-probabilistic interval model, an interval uncertainty method was proposed to construct the analytical model. With reference to the limit state equation from the structural reliability theory, the multidimensional response surface was used for fast calculation.Then, we chose the single-cylinder gas steering gear used in aircraft as the case study, its sealing reliability in working and non-working statuses were calculated, and the results were verified with the actual maintenance records. By analyzing the sensitivity of some variables, we can improve the sealing reliability of the aviation seal by improving the surface roughness only if the cost allows.Finally, we consider that the method proposed in this study realizes the application of smallsample uncertainty analysis in reliability analysis, and could provide a feasible way to solve the similar problems in engineering with multidimensional and small-sample parameters.     

飞机结构强度试验应急载荷限定系统

多轮多支柱起落架飞机主起落架数量较多，试验机及试验设备重量大。试验应急卸载时，试验件和设备重量、以及加载过程中试验件变形所聚集能量快速释放的不协调性易对支持点结构产生较大冲击载荷，且该载荷不可控，影响试验的考核，存在安全隐患。针对多轮多支柱起落架飞机的强度试验要求，设计一种载荷限定系统。在应急卸载或者试验停试情况下，能够为非支持点起落架输出设定载荷，保证应急瞬间所产生的所有载荷按要求分配到所有起落架上，从而防止支持点起落架超载；试验过程中，能够对非支持点起落架施加试验主动载荷。利用仿真软件验证了系统原理的可行性。依据原理设计载荷限定系统，对其结构和工作性能进行应用验证，并在某型飞机全机疲劳试验中进行应用调试，结果表明，该系统完全能够满足试验要求。     

基于比例风险模型的环境折合系数确定方法

研究了环境因素对产品可靠性的影响,给出了一种综合利用变环境试验数据的环境折合系数确定方法.利用比例风险模型来描述可靠性与环境因素的关系,给出了环境因素对产品可靠性影响的定量度量.基于该模型给出了常用寿命分布下的环境折合系数的统计推断方法.针对复杂环境,采用广义比例风险模型用于度量不同环境因素之间对可靠性的交互作用.利用径向基函数法来拟合该模型,并对模型进行了优化.计算实例表明:该方法合理可行,便于工程应用.     

一种与样本信息合理匹配的可靠性模型

针对随机变量具有一定的积累而又不足以确定概率分布的情况,提出了一 种新的基于分段均匀描述的可靠性模型。该模型在积累数据构成的各个子区间上,采用区间 不确定性情况下的非概率模型求得相应的非概率可靠性指标,并依据每个子区间内均匀分布 假设下非概率可靠性指标与概率可靠度的关系,求得每个子区间内无频率信息情况下基于均 匀分布描述变量不确定性时的概率可靠度。由于每个子区间在所积累的数据中出现的可能性 相等,因此可将每个子区间内的概率可靠度进行平均来得到结构的可靠度。与非概率可靠性 模型只利用了积累数据的最大值和最小值情况相比,此方法可以充分利用积累数据中包含 的不确定性信息,避免了非概率模型描述时过于保守的结果。与概率模型相比,本文方法利 用积累数据自然形成的子区间上的均匀分布描述,避免了关于分布的强假设以及分布参数估 计在小样本情况下的较大误差。算例表明,所提模型是一种介于概率与非概率可靠性模型之 间的合理方法,它可以与样本信息较好地匹配,从而合理地度量结构的安全程度。
     

基于试验气动力的飞机副翼效率优化

针对弹性后掠翼飞机在使用试验气动力分析时所出现的副翼反效问题,利用遗传算法对机翼结构进行优化.弹性飞机副翼效率计算采用试验气动力.重点针对一个发生副翼反效的严重飞行状态点进行了机翼结构优化,对比分析了优化前后副翼效率、相同副翼偏度下所产生的滚转率随飞行动压的变化及颤振特性的变化.并比较了基于试验气动力的情况下只针对单一飞行攻角的优化结果和同时考虑多个飞行攻角的优化结果,分析了飞行攻角对优化结果的影响.结果证明:利用结构优化方法可有效在详细设计阶段解决弹性飞机严重飞行状态点副翼反效问题,并且优化结果对飞机颤振特性基本无影响.     

定时截尾数据回归分析方法

提出定时截尾数据回归分析方法,建立定时截尾数据回归方程,给出回归系数和标准差的最佳无偏整体估计、百分位值的点估计及其置信限估计.详细讨论了工程中常见的极值分布、Weibull分布、正态分布以及一般位置-尺度分布场合下定时截尾数据的回归分析问题.该方法可以充分利用截尾时刻的试验信息,并将各个状态下的定时截尾数据作为一个整体进行统计分析,具有信息量大、精度高的特点,从而可以在试验时间、经费等有限的情况下对产品进行高精度的寿命预测和可靠性评估.     

基于可靠性指标的测试系统校准周期优化

通过对测试系统校准周期的直接反应法(SRM)和威布尔(Weibull)可靠性模型法的分析、改进,以及对校准过程中误判率的分析测算,解决了测试系统检定决策的风险问题.首先介绍了测试系统可靠性指标的相关计量技术规范,然后通过对常用的校准周期确定方法的介绍与分析,进一步给出了测量可靠性观测值的可靠性概率函数描述方法,并利用主元分析法来综合评价不同测量参数的影响,修正了最佳校准周期的计算.通过对自动测试系统DMM(数字万用表)测量通道的检定,表明这些优化措施是可行的.