基于三因素模型的企业持续经营高风险预测研究

随着竞争的日趋激烈，企业持续经营不确定性显著增加，尽旱识别企业持续经营面临的风险，对于企业管理者、投资者来说都具有重要意义。现有的持续经营高风险研究依然没有摆脱“资料驱动型”的困境，文章根据三因素模型建立持续经营高风险预测模型。     

循环电载荷下大功率LED金引线疲劳断裂寿命预测

随着大功率发光二极管（LED）在照明领域的普及与广泛应用,可靠性逐渐成为研究的重点。大功率LED封装器件中金引线疲劳断裂失效一直是制约其可靠性的重要因素。通过针对大功率LED封装器件中的金引线力学仿真与功率循环试验相结合的方法,首先确定循环电载荷条件下该型LED的主要失效原因为金引线疲劳断裂,其次提出基于电流加速模型的加速因子提取方法和基于应变幅值的Coffin-Manson解析寿命预测方法,最终完成对LED金引线疲劳断裂寿命的预测和试验验证。研究结果表明:所提方法具有较高的寿命预测精度,可以满足大功率LED封装器件可靠性快速、准确评估的要求。      

J2轨道模型对月地激光通信预瞄准精度影响研究

基于J_2轨道预测模型,设计了不同倾角和轨道高度圆轨道月球卫星,通过将J_2轨道预测模型预瞄准仿真结果与直接积分RKF7(8)法仿真结果相对比,研究了不同类型月球卫星轨道对-Y面卫星舱板激光通信终端瞄准精度的影响。仿真结果表明,J_2轨道预测模型可以满足月球极地卫星月地激光通信要求,当轨道高度为1 000 km和2 000 km的时候,10 min方位角偏差不超过40μrad,而俯仰角偏差仅为7μrad时,在一定程度上J2轨道预测模型可以满足月地激光通信预瞄准要求。     

电动式磁悬浮动量球电磁场耦合分析

本文针对电动式磁悬浮动量球(Electrodynamic suspension reaction sphere, EDSRS)的电磁场耦合进行分析，采用定子绕组的感应电动势评判耦合强度，提出了耦合强度评判指标，作为EDSRS的结构设计约束，以降低电磁场耦合的影响。首先，结合EDSRS的具体结构特点，对多定子之间的电磁场耦合问题进行分析，采用定子电磁场在另一个定子绕组中产生的感应电动势评判耦合强度。然后，对感应电动势产生规律进行分析，提出了耦合强度评判指标，并基于所提评判指标，建立了耦合约束验证流程，作为EDSRS的结构设计约束，最后，通过有限元仿真和实验验证了上述电磁场耦合分析。     

基于TLE的弹道系数计算方法及应用分析

针对仅使用两行要素（Two Line Element，TLE）作为数据源的应用需求，研究了基于TLE轨道衰减的弹道系数计算方法。介绍了一种常用的基于两组TLE的直接计算法，分析TLE选取间隔对结果精度的影响；提出了一种基于多组TLE的迭代计算方法，以降低异常TLE对计算结果的影响；从弹道系数计算效果、在再入预报中的应用等方面对这两种方法进行比较分析。结果表明，两种方法各有优劣，基于多组TLE的迭代计算法稳定性更高、受TLE精度的影响更小；由于数据区间更短，基于两组TLE的计算结果对短期轨道衰减特性反应得更准确，用于临近再入时的预报效果更好。     

Orbit determination and prediction of GEO satellite of BeiDou during repositioning maneuver

In order to establish a continuous GEO satellite orbit during repositioning maneuvers, a suitable maneuver force model has been established associated with an optimal orbit determination method and strategy. A continuous increasing acceleration is established by constructing a constant force that is equivalent to the pulse force, with the mass of the satellite decreasing throughout maneuver. This acceleration can be added to other accelerations, such as solar radiation, to obtain the continuous acceleration of the satellite. The orbit determination method and strategy are illuminated, with subsequent assessment of the orbit being determined and predicted accordingly. The orbit of the GEO satellite during repositioning maneuver can be determined and predicted by using C-Band pseudo-range observations of the BeiDou GEO satellite with COSPAR ID 2010-001A in 2011 and 2012. The results indicate that observations before maneuver do affect orbit determination and prediction, and should therefore be selected appropriately. A more precise orbit and prediction can be obtained compared to common short arc methods when observations starting 1 day prior the maneuver and 2 h after the maneuver are adopted in POD (Precise Orbit Determination). The achieved URE (User Range Error) under non-consideration of satellite clock errors is better than 2 m within the first 2 h after maneuver, and less than 3 m for further 2 h of orbit prediction.     

Carrier phase prediction method for GNSS precise positioning in challenging environment

Since the signals of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) are blocked frequently in challenging environments, the discontinuous carrier phases seriously affect the application of GNSS precise positioning. To improve the carrier phase continuity, this paper proposes a carrier phase prediction method based on carrier open-loop tracking. In the open-loop tracking mode, the carrier numerically controlled oscillator (NCO) is controlled by the predicted Doppler, but not by the loop filter output. To improve the phase prediction effective time, accurate receiver clock drift estimation is studied in the prediction method. The phase prediction performance is tested on GNSS software receiver. In the phase prediction effective time tests, open-loop processes were set for the tested channel. The test results show that, when some satellite signals are blocked in 15?s, the probability of carrier phase error less than quarter cycles is more than 94%. In the real time kinematic (RTK) positioning tests, some satellite signals are blocked in 10–15?s repeatedly. The test results show that, the carrier phase continuity is basically not affected by the signal interruption, and the RTK can almost keep continuous centimeter-level positioning accuracy without re-fixing the integer ambiguity.     

基于成核理论的水温对结冰黏附强度影响研究

飞机结冰会影响飞行安全,甚至导致严重的飞行事故。研究积冰与基底的黏附强度,可以为飞机防除冰系统的设计提供具体的指标要求。设计剪切黏附力测量实验平台,利用该实验平台测量基板在不同冻结用水初始温度下的结冰黏附力;采集水/冰在冻结过程中的温度变化,并通过成核理论分析实验现象,着重研究冻结用水的初始温度对黏附强度的影响。结果表明：冻结水温初始温度的增加会促进冰晶成核,进而提高黏附强度。     

F12/环氧复合材料力学性能研究

测定了Ｆ１２／环氧复合材料的基本力学性能,并比较了Ｆ１２纤维在单向板、强力环及薄壁容器中的纤维强度转化率。实验结果表明,Ｆ１２／环氧单向复合材料与其ＮＯＬ环的拉伸强度相近,而薄壁容器中的复合强度约为单向拉伸强度的６０％,但三种复合材料的纤维强度转化率相近,约为（７０．１±１．６）％。     

强度自适应智能复合材料结构

提出在复合材料中埋入形状记忆合金丝、光纤阵列组成的强度自适应复合材料结构与系统。提出能够改变结构应力分布的形状记忆合金丝的布置方案;检测复合材料损伤及大应变位置的光纤阵列和神经网络;以及控制激励形状记忆合金丝动作的系统和实验方案。