一种用于同步静止卫星监测的微型VLBI网

针对地球静止轨道（GEO）卫星全天时全天候高精度的监测需求，考虑传统甚长基线干涉（VLBI）测站高成本、高投入和GEO卫星专用观测时段有限等制约条件，研发了简易型VLBI观测系统，并组建了包括上海、都匀和乌鲁木齐三站的微型VLBI网（micro VLBI network，MVN），开展了并置站测试以及对GEO卫星亚太6C的连续监测，并评估了当前MVN的观测能力。结果表明MVN扣除系统差后的单站接收精度为2ns，各基线观测时延拟后残差约几纳秒，GEO目标实测位置精度为百米级（内外符精度分别约100m和400m）。不同于传统VLBI和其他GEO监测手段，MVN还具备全天时、全天候、低造价、易布设及易推广等特点，充分表明了其在GEO卫星监测领域的应用价值。     

庞巴迪宇航C系列项目风险管理浅析

庞巴迪宇航C系列项目风险管理在该项目发展尤其是技术研发中发挥了重要作用,是BA公司的一项重要管理行为,为BA公司的项目管理流程再造和决策提供了宝贵的、来自最前沿的实际运作经验和管理案例。本文根据笔者在C系列项目现场涉及到的实际工作内容,并结合自身体会,分别就C系列项目风险管理的愿景及目标、风险管理任务/机构及职责、风险管理流程、风险管理工具等进行了扼要介绍。     

Assessment of space debris collisions against spacecraft with deorbit devices

Deorbit methods have been employed to remove space debris from orbit. One of these methods is to utilize atmospheric drag. In this method, a membrane loaded into the spacecraft is expanded to increase atmospheric drag. Although this method works without requiring fuel, it has the disadvantage of a high risk of collision with other debris owing to its larger area. Area-time product and energy-to-mass ratio have been used as indices to evaluate the risk of collisions between spacecraft and debris. However, the evaluation criteria were uncertain because these two indices are independent. In this paper, we propose a new evaluation index, single-sheet collision factor (SSCF), that comprehensively evaluates the collision risk based on experiments simulating debris collisions. As a result of the hypervelocity collision experiment, we found that the penetration-area mass of the spacecraft affects the severity of debris collisions. In this paper, the product of the exterior-wall thickness, the exterior-wall density, and the space debris cross-sectional area defines the penetration-area mass of the spacecraft. Furthermore, we compare and evaluate various deorbit methods using SSCF. The comparison showed that the penetration-area mass of the SSCF could be quantitatively determined for the debris-collision severity due to difference in structural materials of spacecraft. SSCF will be used to create rules for space-environment conservation with the expansion of the space-development market.     

基于模糊逻辑的软件项目风险评估方法

风险评估是软件项目风险管理的重要内容。利用成本估算模型中已有的专家知识和启发信息进行风险评估的RiskMethod方法是一种较优的风险分析方法，但是实际项目中存在的模糊性信息对分析数据的准确性影响较大，导致评估结果的可信度降低。将模糊逻辑应用于RiskMethod方法中，使用COCOMO II模型的成本驱动作为每个风险事件的对应驱动，将评估的输入量使用三角模糊数的方法模糊化成模糊输入量，将评估结果使用重心方法去模糊化成输出量，从而提出了基于模糊逻辑的软件项目风险评估方法，并通过实例说明了方法在实际项目中应用的可行性。     

带有时间约束的再入滑翔轨迹设计

为了满足飞行器协同飞行任务需求，本文研究了带有时间约束的再入滑翔轨迹设计方法。首先，建立了合理假设条件下的再入滑翔运动模型，并且提出了一种再入滑翔轨迹分段方法。其次，针对不同飞行段特点及任务需求，分别设计了各段导引律。其中，重点推导了滑翔段飞行剩余时间和剩余航程的解析解，将剩余飞行时间与末制导交班点速度建立对应关系，运用解析预测-校正思想，通过在时间调整段和能量调整段调节倾侧角翻转时机和幅值，同时满足末端能量和时间约束。最后，通过理论分析与仿真校验说明了本方法的有效性及鲁棒性。     

Cooperative guidance strategy for multiple hypersonic gliding vehicles system

Cooperative guidance strategy for multiple hypersonic gliding vehicles system with flight constraints and cooperative constraints is investigated. This paper mainly cares about the coordination of the entry glide flight phase and driving-down phase. Different from the existing results, both the attack time and the attack angle constraints are considered simultaneously. Firstly, for the entry glide flight phase, a two-stage method is proposed to achieve the rapid cooperative trajectories planning, where the control signal corridors are designed based on the quasi-equilibrium gliding conditions. In the first stage, the bank angle curve is optimized to achieve the attack angle coordination. In the second stage, the angle of attack curve is optimized to achieve the attack time coordination. The optimized parameters can be obtained by the secant method. Secondly, for the driving-down phase, the cooperative terminal guidance law is designed where the terminal attack time and attack angle are considered. The guidance law is then transformed into the bank angle and angle of attack commands. The cooperative guidance strategy is summarized as an algorithm. Finally, a numerical simulation example with three hypersonic gliding vehicles is provided for revealing the effectiveness of the acquired strategy and algorithm.     

氧气/醇类燃气发生器启动过程试验研究

对氧气/醇类燃气发生器进行了热态试验,对启动过程进行了描述和分析,并引入点火时间和着火延迟两个参数深入研究了燃气发生器的启动规律。研究表明,燃烧室流量密度的增加对燃气发生器的点火时间影响不大,但会引起着火延迟的明显增加;时序中氧气与燃料两种组元进入燃烧室的时刻对启动过程有较大的影响,二者存在一个最优的时间间隔,可以保证燃气发生器快速、平稳、安全的启动。     

嵌入维数自适应最小二乘支持向量机状态时间序列预测方法

 针对航空发动机状态时间序列预测中嵌入维数难于有效选取的问题,提出一种基于嵌入维数自适应最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)的预测方法。该方法将嵌入维数作为影响状态时间序列预测精度的重?问?以交叉验证误差为评价准则,利用粒子群优化（PSO）进化搜索LSSVM预测模型的最优超参数与嵌入维数,同时通过矩阵变换原理提高交叉验证过程的计算效率,并最终建立优化后的LSSVM预测模型。航空发动机排气温度（EGT）预测实例表明,该方法可自适应选取适用于状态时间序列预测的最优嵌入维数且预测精度高,适用于航空发动机状态时间序列预测。     

民航客机火灾风险浅析

新型客机在航程、载客量、舒适度上都有显著的提高。空中交通作为世界上最安全的运输方式之一,有着很高的安全保障,以及较低的事故风险率,但由于客机失事时幸存者极少,所以造成的社会影响极端恶劣,而火灾作为民用客机的主要事故因素之一受到人们极大的关注,本文主要分析可能导致客机火灾的风险和因素,并对飞机在受到撞击后能导致的火灾风险和后果进行分析。     

航空发动机技术成熟度评价方法研究

技术成熟度评价是控制新型航空发动机研制中技术风险的有效途径,在国外航空发动机研制、技术发展中得到广泛应用。本文介绍了美国国防部成熟度评价方法和国外航空发动机技术成熟度评价的现状,提出了开展航空发动机技术成熟度评价的设想和初步的评价方法,并以虚拟的高压压气机技术验证项目为例进行了技术成熟度模拟评价。