Human response to high-background radiation environments on Earth and in space

The main long-term objective of the space exploration program is the colonization of the planets of the Solar System. The high cosmic radiation equivalent dose rate represents an inescapable problem for the safe establishment of permanent human settlements on these planets. The unshielded equivalent dose rate on Mars ranges between 100 and 200 mSv/year, depending on the Solar cycle and altitude, and can reach values as high as 360 mSv/year on the Moon. The average annual effective dose on Earth is about 3 mSv, nearly 85% of which comes from natural background radiation, reduced to less than 1 mSv if man-made sources and the internal exposure to Rn daughters are excluded. However, some areas on Earth display anomalously high levels of background radiation, as is the case with thorium-rich monazite bearing sand deposits where values 200–400 times higher than the world average can be found. About 2% of the world’s population live above 3 km and receive a disproportionate 10% of the annual effective collective dose due to cosmic radiation, with a net contribution to effective dose by the neutron component which is 3–4 fold that at sea level. Thus far, epidemiological studies have failed to show any adverse health effects in the populations living in these terrestrial high-background radiation areas (HBRA), which provide an unique opportunity to study the health implications of an environment that, as closely as possibly achievable on Earth, resembles the chronic exposure of future space colonists to higher-than-normal levels of ionizing radiation. Chromosomal aberrations in the peripheral blood lymphocytes from the HBRA residents have been measured in several studies because chromosomal damage represents an early biomarker of cancer risk. Similar cytogenetic studies have been recently performed in a cohort of astronauts involved in single or repeated space flights over many years. The cytogenetic findings in populations exposed to high dose-rate background radiation on Earth or in space will be discussed.     

航天器的风险管理及其在环境试验中的应用

风险管理是航天计划/项目管理中的重要组成部分,并已在国外的航天型号研制中受到重视.文章介绍了国外在航天项目中对风险管理的要求和风险管理过程,同时着重介绍了风险管理在环境试验工作中的应用实例.     

高拱坝失效模式与失效概率

为克服高拱坝确定性安全评价中不考虑随机性、不进行风险分析的弊端,提出研究超静定结构高拱坝的失效模式、利用失效概率与失效风险值对高拱坝进行风险评价。在分析洪水、地震和材料老化等造成高拱坝失效原因的基础上,利用故障树分析法探索出高拱坝具有失稳溃坝、剪滑垮坝、超量开裂以及人为毁坝等4种主要失效模式;从产生载荷参数随机数、获取随机变量的分布规律和建立失效模式的状态函数等方面研究了高拱坝单个失效模式与系统失效概率的计算方法。计算了某高拱坝剪滑失效模式的失效概率。     

基于云贝叶斯网络的运输飞机超轮速风险评估

起飞超轮速严重威胁飞行安全,为了有效评估运输飞机起飞时在不确定性因素影响下的超轮速风险水平,提出一种基于云模型和贝叶斯网络的评估模型。选取抬轮速度、总重、低压转子转速、抬轮率、抬轮时机、升降舵控制量、风的分量、总温8个指标,建立超轮速风险指标体系;运用基于启发式高斯云变换算法和正向高斯云算法的云模型,实现超轮速风险等级软划分和指标离散化,并确定各指标的先验概率;构建超轮速风险的贝叶斯网络,基于所建网络和节点信息计算节点后验概率,通过网络反向诊断得到超轮速的主要诱因。结合实际运行数据进行仿真验证,结果表明：评估结果符合实际情况,验证了模型的有效性。研究结果可为超轮速事件分析、民航运行安全风险管理提供理论依据。     

Advanced ensemble modeling method for space object state prediction accounting for uncertainty in atmospheric density

For objects in the low Earth orbit region, uncertainty in atmospheric density estimation is an important source of orbit prediction error, which is critical for space traffic management activities such as the satellite conjunction analysis. This paper investigates the evolution of orbit error distribution in the presence of atmospheric density uncertainties, which are modeled using probabilistic machine learning techniques. The recently proposed “HASDM-ML,” “CHAMP-ML,” and “MSIS-UQ” machine learning models for density estimation (Licata and Mehta, 2022b; Licata et al., 2022b) are used in this work. The investigation is convoluted because of the spatial and temporal correlation of the atmospheric density values. We develop several Monte Carlo methods, each capturing a different spatiotemporal density correlation, to study the effects of density uncertainty on orbit uncertainty propagation. However, Monte Carlo analysis is computationally expensive, so a faster method based on the Kalman filtering technique for orbit uncertainty propagation is also explored. It is difficult to translate the uncertainty in atmospheric density to the uncertainty in orbital states under a standard extended Kalman filter or unscented Kalman filter framework. This work uses the so-called “consider covariance sigma point (CCSP)” filter that can account for the density uncertainties during orbit propagation. As a test-bed for validation purposes, a comparison between CCSP and Monte Carlo methods of orbit uncertainty propagation is carried out. Finally, using the HASDM-ML, CHAMP-ML, and MSIS-UQ density models, we propose an ensemble approach for orbit uncertainty quantification for four different space weather conditions.     

基于信息融合的系统可靠性优化试验设计模型

分析了现今可靠性试验设计的不足,考虑两类风险(弃真风险、采伪风险)建立了基于信息融合的可靠性优化试验设计模型(ORTIF, optimization reliability test design modeling based on information fusion).分析了可靠性试验设计的需求、约束条件,基于子系统和系统验前分布是Beta分布,提出了可靠性系统中子系统层与系统层之间的信息融合技术.根据验后风险准则,给出弃真和采伪风险的定义.基于Matlab软件给出了最优试验方案数值计算的求解步骤.最后以液态火箭发动机为例,求解出满足约束条件的最优试验方案为(9,5,10,6,1),对应的最小试验费用为3326.9,并得出权值方案对试验方案的确定影响较大的结论.      

可编程逻辑器件的竞争—冒险现象

本文分析了可编程逻辑器件出现竞争冒险的原因，介绍了在数字系统设计过程中常用的几种消除竞争冒险的措施。     

相容非概率信息的可靠性理论与方法研究

介绍了相容非概率信息的可靠性研究进展和趋势,说明了在卫星可靠性工程中开展相容非概率信息研究的必要性和可行性。在总结分析现有主要可靠性量化分析理论与工具的原理、方法和特点的基础上,提出了实现相容非概率卫星可靠性信息量化的相关技术路径,并指出非概率信息在卫星可靠性工程中的应用将是改善卫星可靠度量化控制问题的一条途径。     

海上雾霾天气下基于能见度的舰载机目视着舰风险评估方法研究

针对雾霾天气对舰载机目视着舰安全性的影响难以量化的问题,利用激光雷达在近海的能见度观测数据,反演海上雾霾天气下飞行员目视着舰的斜程能见度的状况,提出 1种基于能见度指标的目视着舰风险评估方法,将舰载机着舰过程中飞行员频繁的目测压力,转变为舰上数据测量、风险评估和应对措施等程序化工作,将定性的安全分析转变为定量的风险评估和安全指导,谋求在现有着舰控制模式下有效降低飞行员着舰压力,提升指挥引导效率,为低能见度下舰载机目视着舰训练提供理论依据和实践指导。     

基于因子分析的现役装备改进风险评价指标体系研究

研究构建科学合理的评价指标体系是开展综合评价的前提和基础。现役装备改进是一个复杂的系统工程过程，制约因素多、技术难度大，存在很多不确定性。为确保装备改进顺利进行．必须开展有效的风险分析和评价研究．从而预先采取针对性措施加以防范。本论文运用因子分析方法（FA），通过指标筛选，从技术风险、费用风险、生产风险、管理风险和环境...