GDP spatialization in Ningbo City based on NPP/VIIRS night-time light and auxiliary data using random forest regression

Accurate spatial distribution information on gross domestic product (GDP) is of great importance for the analysis of economic development, industrial distribution and urbanization processes. Traditional administrative unit-based GDP statistics cannot depict the detailed spatial differences in GDP within each administrative unit. This paper presents a study of GDP spatialization in Ningbo City, China based on National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP)/Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night-time light (NTL) data and town-level GDP statistical data. The Landsat image, land cover, road network and topographic data were also employed as auxiliary data to derive independent variables for GDP modelling. Multivariate linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) regression were used to estimate GDP at the town scale and were assessed by cross-validation. The results show that the RF model achieved significantly higher accuracy, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 109.46 million China Yuan (CNY)·km⁻² and a determinate coefficient (R² = 0.77) than the MLR model (MAE = 161.8 million CNY·km⁻², R² = 0.59). Meanwhile, by comparing with the estimated GDP data at the county level, the town-level estimated data showed a better performance in mapping GDP distribution (MAE decreased from 115.1 million CNY·km⁻² to 74.8 million CNY·km⁻²). Among all of the independent variables, NTL, land surface temperature (T_s) and plot ratio (PR) showed higher impacts on the GDP estimation accuracy than the other variables. The GDP density map generated by the RF model depicted the detailed spatial distribution of the economy in Ningbo City. By interpreting the spatial distribution of the GDP, we found that the GDP of Ningbo was high in the northeast and low in the southwest and formed continuous clusters in the north. In addition, the GDP of Ningbo also gradually decreased from the urban centre to its surrounding areas. The produced GDP map provides a good reference for the future urban planning and socio-economic development strategies.     

Location layout design of aircraft parts assembly based on MSVR

Location layout of aircraft assembly is an important factor affecting product quality. Most of the existing re-searches use the combination of finite element analysis and intelligent algorithm to optimize the location layout, which are limited by numerical simulation accuracy and the selection and improvement of intelligent algorithms. At present, the analysis and decision-making technology based on field data is gradually applied in aircraft manufacturing. Based on the perception data of intelligent assembly unit of aircraft parts, a regression model of multi-input and multi-output support vector machine with Gauss kernel function as radial basis function is established, and the hyperparameters of the model are optimized by hybrid particle swarm optimization genetic algorithm (PSO-GA). GA-MSVR, PSO-MSVR and PSOGA-MSVR model are constructed respectively, and their results show that PSOGA-MSVR model has the best performance. Finally, the design of the aircraft wing location layout is taken as an example to verify the effectiveness of the method.     

Improving the estimation of zenith dry tropospheric delays using regional surface meteorological data

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are emerging as possible tools for remote sensing high-resolution atmospheric water vapour that improves weather forecasting through numerical weather prediction models. Nowadays, the GNSS-derived tropospheric zenith total delay (ZTD), comprising zenith dry delay (ZDD) and zenith wet delay (ZWD), is achievable with sub-centimetre accuracy. However, if no representative near-site meteorological information is available, the quality of the ZDD derived from tropospheric models is degraded, leading to inaccurate estimation of the water vapour component ZWD as difference between ZTD and ZDD. On the basis of freely accessible regional surface meteorological data, this paper proposes a height-dependent linear correction model for a priori ZDD. By applying the ordinary least-squares estimation (OLSE), bootstrapping (BOOT), and leave-one-out cross-validation (CROS) methods, the model parameters are estimated and analysed with respect to outlier detection. The model validation is carried out using GNSS stations with near-site meteorological measurements. The results verify the efficiency of the proposed ZDD correction model, showing a significant reduction in the mean bias from several centimetres to about 5 mm. The OLSE method enables a fast computation, while the CROS procedure allows for outlier detection. All the three methods produce consistent results after outlier elimination, which improves the regression quality by about 20% and the model accuracy by up to 30%.     

基于SPSS的终端区交通流态势评估

空中交通管理工作的实施必须以准确掌握各航线运行状况及其发展趋势为基础和前提。对终端区交通流的运行态势进行评估，即是对交通流实时运行状态及发展趋势进行分析。对终端区空中交通流进行现状评估，确定各个交通流参数的时序分布，评价终端区交通流运行状态。借助SPSS统计软件，剖析参数变量之间存在的关系，以线性回归模型为基础模型，了解变量之间如何相互影响，获取终端区流量出现拥塞的时段，反映终端区交通流特性。     

基于弹性网稀疏编码的空间目标识别

 传统的特征袋(BoF)模型在目标识别过程中假设每个局部特征点只关联特征词典中一个视觉单词。此外,l₁范数约束下的稀疏编码对于具有较强成对相关性的特征通常只选择一个特征,而不关注哪一个特征被选择。本文提出一种基于弹性网稀疏编码的特征袋模型。该模型利用尺度不变特征变换(SIFT)特征描述子构建特征字典,再通过弹性网回归模型求解每个描述子所对应的稀疏系数向量,最后将目标图像内的稀疏系数向量合并用于分类。与传统的特征袋模型和基于l₁范数稀疏编码的特征袋模型相比,该模型有较好的识别性能,并对视角变化具有较强的鲁棒性。在空间目标图像数据库上的实验验证了该模型的有效性。     

Geomagnetic activity and solar cycles

Multiple linear regression method is used to estimate the total number of geomagnetic storms per solar cycle and to predict cycle 23’s maximum amplitude. A recurrence trend of 7 and 12 cycles are used as lagged values to estimate the amplitude of the current cycle, which resulted to be equal to 137 (±65) smoothed monthly mean sunspots.     

自相关回归法在地震地面运动功率谱分析中的应用

本文通过数值分析，对几个著名的地震记录的功率谱ARM解的特性作了讨论，并与高速富里衰变换（FFT）法的解进行了比较，讨论了ARM应用于各类地震记录的谱分析的适用性。比较结果表明：对于不同的地震记录，其功率谱的ARM解等价于按一定谱窗宽度平滑化的FFT法解。本研究还对赤池氏推荐的自相关回归次数的经验公式提出了修正意见。本研究的成果对于高层建筑抗震设计有一定的参考价值。     

电力市场输电阻塞管理的优化模型

根据输电阻塞管理原则和安全经济管理的需要,提出电力市场输电阻塞管理的优化模型.首先建立各线路上的有功潮流与各机组出力之间的函数关系,其次构造了阻塞费用函数,最后在 “安全第一“的原则下,按照购电费用最小的经济目标建立了消除阻塞的优化模型,并进行求解,较好地解决了输电阻塞问题.     

通用型直升机直接使用成本估算模型

研究一种可以在直升机总体方案设计阶段进行直接使用成本估算的方法.通过对通用型直升机样本数据资料的整理和回归分析,得到了用燃油消耗率和直接维护保障耗时率来衡量和估算直接使用成本大小的新方法,建立了通用型直升机直接使用成本的估算和比较模型,为通用型直升机总体设计阶段直接使用成本的评估提供了参考依据.     

航天器软件参数修改的测试策略研究

梳理了现有的回归测试策略,并结合航天器软件参数修改错误的2个实例分析,提出了一种新的回归测试策略。该策略借鉴回归测试用例集约简算法中的需求驱动方法,提出了基于构建程序-需求覆盖矩阵和测试用例-需求覆盖矩阵进行回归测试的方法,并给出了按照该策略实施软件参数修改测试的流程。最后,提出了将该测试策略工具化的设想,如研发代码变更影响域自动分析工具,或者使用已有的商用工具。