危害性矩阵分析中故障模式影响概率的确定方法

危害性矩阵分析是进行产品分析和指导改进措施的重要手段,为了解决通过经验决定故障模式影响概率的现状,需采用更加实用客观的方法。根据定量危害性矩阵分析的原理和方法,首先收集故障模式影响概率经验估计法的参照依据和取值范围;然后提出采用故障树计算故障模式影响概率的方法,并用算例进行验证,结果表明故障树计算法避免了人为因素的影响,计算量小,准确性好;最后给出故障模式影响概率的确定流程。     

Maneuvering Target Tracking in Dense Clutter Based on Particle Filtering

An improved particle filtering(IPF) is presented to perform maneuvering target tracking in dense clutter.The proposed filter uses several efficient variance reduction methods to combat particle degeneracy,low mode prior probabilities and measure-ment-origin uncertainty.Within the framework of a hybrid state estimation,each particle samples a discrete mode from its poste-rior distribution and the continuous state variables are approximated by a multivariate Gaussian mixture that is updated by an unscented Ka...     

战术机动对飞机作战生存力的影响研究

战术作为飞机生存力的影响因素,只被定性的提出.为定量化研究战术对飞机作战生存力的影响效果,以战术机动为例,建立了比例导引导弹在水平平面内对飞机的攻击模型;对飞机实施常规的盘旋机动规避导弹进行了仿真,验证了所建模型的合理性;假设机动的初始方向为随机量,采用蒙特卡罗方法,讨论了飞机实施超机动的初始距离与飞机生存概率的关系;...     

基于混沌粒子群优化算法的压气机盘低循环疲劳

压气机轮盘低循环疲劳寿命受很多随机参数的影响,具有很大的分散性,因此,对压气机盘低循环疲劳寿命进行稳健性设计具有重要的意义.在对疲劳寿命概率分析的基础上,结合RBF神经网络与混沌粒子群优化算法,利用混沌粒子群优化的动态收缩搜索区域的搜索特性,通过对随机参数进行优化进行压气机轮盘低循环疲劳寿命稳健性优化设计,使得疲劳寿命对参数的敏感度降低,概率区间减小,计算结果验证了该方法在工程应用中的可行性.     

Aircraft vulnerability modeling and computation methods based on product structure and CATIA

Survivability strengthening/vulnerability reduction designs have become one of the most important design disciplines of military aircraft now. Due to progressiveness and complexity of modern combat aircraft, the existing vulnerability modeling and computation methods cannot meet the current engineering application requirements. Therefore, a vulnerability modeling and computation method based on product structure and CATIA is proposed in sufficient consideration of the design characteristics of modern combat aircraft. This method directly constructs the aircraft vulnerability model by CATIA or the digital model database, and manages all the product components of the vulnerability model via aircraft product structure. Using CAA second development, the detailed operations and computation methods of vulnerability analysis are integrated into CATIA software environment. Comprehensive assessment data and visual kill probability Iso-contours can also be presented, which meet the vulnerability analysis requirements of modern combat aircraft effectively. The intact vulnerability model of one hypothetical aircraft is constructed, and the effects of redundant technology to the aircraft vulnerability are assessed, which validate the engineering practicality of the method.     

竟拍过程的概率延拓分析

到拍卖行去竟拍拍品,已经成为我们生活中越来越平常的经济行为,在竟拍过程中,两人轮流举牌,甲先乙后,谁先拍到呢?结合概率论中的全概率公式,给出了甲先拍到的充要条件;在此基础上进行延拓,探讨随着竟价的提升,两人心理承受能力的等差下降和非等差下降对竟拍的影响,甲先拍到的概率变化,并推导出相应的概率计算公式.     

Visualizing Impact Probabilities of Space Debris

We present a new method to assess and visualize the collision risk due to space debris for an orbiting spacecraft. It is based on a parameter space derived from Öpik's studies of close approaches between small Solar System bodies and the planets. By means of this representation, many useful insights into the dynamics of the overall debris population with respect to a selected target can be obtained. The method can also be applied to estimate the increase in impact hazard (e.g., for the International Space Station) associated to fragmentation events occurring on a specific orbit.     

关于集合运算的应用

通过多年的教学工作实践，发现集合的运算在多个领域中得到应用，为了方便学习，缩短学习时间，从多个角度来阐述集合运算的应用，旨在提醒学生对简单知识点的学习必须得到重视。     

Non-Gaussian clutter characterization applied to OTHR using a mixture of two Rayleigh probability density functions

A practical technique for characterizing non-Gaussian radar clutter is specified and demonstrated using Over The Horizon Radar (OTHR) data, as an example. The technique employs maximum likelihood to fit the probability density of the clutter amplitude returns to a mixture of two Rayleigh probability densities instead of the single Rayleigh density typically used for Gaussian clutter. This model for non-Gaussian clutter is fully specified for any set of clutter amplitudes by a log likelihood, two Rayleigh parameters, and a mixing coefficient. A 3D plot of these values yields an easily-visualized clutter characterization, as is illustrated using OTHR data. This technique is a demonstration of clutter characterization using OTHR data, but the method can be applied to characterize other types of clutter data.     

单舰防空反导综合作战效能评估

单舰防空反导综合作战效能反映了水面舰艇对空防御能力,它不仅是舰艇战斗力生成的基础,也是舰艇持续作战的根本保证.在反导作战效能评估中,专家咨询法、层次分析法等都存在一定主观因素,文中提出的基于概率学的分类综合评价法,不仅可以客观地评价单舰防空综合反导作战效能,还能应用于对作战方法优劣的评价,对改进战法,提高水面舰艇战斗力...