结构方程模型的预测建模方法

提出一种结构方程模型的动态预测建模方法,从而可以在无须未来样本数据的情况下,预测系统要素之间未来的因果关系。采用矩阵谱分解,将协方差矩阵唯一分解为特征值矩阵和特征向量矩阵乘积的形式.分别应用经典的线性回归方法和高维群点主轴旋转预测方法对特征值矩阵和特征向量矩阵建立预测模型,提出一种协方差矩阵的后推预测算法.采用极大似然法,迭代估计未来结构方程模型的各种参数.仿真实验例示了该方法的主要计算步骤.计算结果显示,利用本模型得到的拟合值精度较高,预测模型真实可信,表明这种方法可以用于分析和预测结构方程模型.      

航空母舰尾流数值仿真研究

为研究舰载飞机进舰着舰过程中航空母舰尾流的影响,选取了一个尾流模型在微机的MATLAB环境中模拟其速度的空间分布.根据成因将紊流分为4个组成部分:自由紊流分量的功率谱用成形滤波器法模拟,稳态分量通过线性插值得到,周期性分量可直接计算得到,而航母诱导的随机紊流分量则通过MATLAB的SIMULINK工具包模拟.模拟表明周期性分量占主导地位.此模型需要实验数据和船上实测数据进一步确认.     

Black hole accretion and X-ray spectra of QSOS

Changes in Eddington accretion ratios are thought to result in X-ray spectral index changes in Galactic binary black hole systems. Objects with higher Eddington ratios have softer X-ray spectra. Can we apply this result to much more massive black hole systems such as QSOs? If so, X-ray observations will give us valuable insight into the physics of QSOs. Among QSOs, X-ray spectral index is part of a large set of correlated optical and UV observational properties, especially optical Fe II and [O III] strengths in the Hβ region. To investigate whether this set of correlations is related to Eddington ratio, we use as probes, BALQSOs that have been suggested to be youthful super-accretors. We conducted infrared spectroscopy of the Hβ rest wavelength region for a sample of BALQSOs and compared line measurements with those for high and low redshift non-BAL QSOs. Hβ line widths and bolometric luminosity are used to calculate QSO black hole masses and Eddington ratios. Our results support the hypothesis that optical Fe II and [O III] line strengths are Eddington ratio indicators in QSO central engines. A possible explanation is that strong Fe II and weak [O III] indicate abundant cold gas that could fuel near Eddington accretion.     

一种香豆素并杂环衍生物分子结构及红外光谱的理论研究

基于Gaussian09W软件,采用密度泛函理论（Density Functional Theory,DFT）的B3LYP方法,在6-311G（d）基组水平上优化了一种香豆素3,4-并六元杂环衍生物分子的结构,得到其最稳定构型、分子能量及HOMO、LUMO轨道能量。在优化结构的基础上,用同样的方法计算了该分子的振动频率,频率分析证明了该优化结构为最稳定结构。利用分子的振动频率数据绘制了标题分子的红外光谱图,对其红外光谱峰位进行了归属。     

Spectral characteristics of electron fluxes at L < 2 under the Radiation Belts

The paper presents the analysis of experimental data on electron fluxes with energies 10 keV–10 MeV. Data were obtained during 1978–2005 years in different space experiments (COSMOS-900, MIR Space Station, ACTIVE, SAMPEX, CORONAS-I, CORONAS-F, NOAA POES-17, TATYANA and others). Two areas of electron flux enhancements are studied in the paper: the near-equatorial (L < 1.2) zone and the middle-latitude (1.2 < L < 1.9) zone. It is shown that electron flux enhancements are regularly registered at L < 2 and the observed formations have some typical features. Electron peaks at L < 1.2 appear sporadically while peaks at 1.2 < L < 1.9 are observed regularly. The approximations of spectra by several functions including kappa-function are presented.     

电离层闪烁谱特征分析

本文给出了斜入射和不均匀体各向异性情形下的闪烁强度时间频谱的理论表达式。得出在各向异性不均匀介质中传播的信号,其闪烁谱在低频端既有下降的,又有平坦的,具体视传播的几何条件而定,其中传播角的影响尤为显著。据此,较好地解释了在广州、武昌、新乡等地观测到的ETS～Ⅱ卫星VHF信号闪烁谱在低频端的不同特征。      

可被蓝光激发的白光LED用红色荧光粉材料体系与发光性能研究

综述并讨论了目前研究的可被蓝光LED芯片有效激发且具有宽发射带的红色荧光粉,可以得出：白光LED用红色荧光粉主要包括碱土金属硫化物、新型氮化物及硅酸盐等,这些红色荧光粉均可被460 nm蓝光激发,并具有宽发射光谱的特点。同时着重分析了其晶体结构与荧光性能之间的联系,并探讨了高显色指数和色温可调的白光LED用红色荧光粉下一步的研究方向与应用趋势。     

Vertical wavenumber spectra of atmospheric ozone measured from ozonesonde observations

Vertical profiles of ozone have been measured at balloon altitudes. Our purpose is to examine the character of vertical wavenumber spectra of ozone fluctuations, to assess the possible roles of gravity wave field in ozone fluctuations, and to determine dominant vertical wavelengths of ozone spectra. Vertical wavenumber spectra of 12 ozone fluctuations obtained during June–August 2003 are presented. Results indicate that mean spectral slopes in the wavenumber range from 4.69 × 10⁻⁴ to 2.50 × 10⁻³ cyc/m are about −2.91 in the troposphere and −2.87 in the lower stratosphere, which is close to the slope of −3 predicted by current gravity wave saturation models. The consistency of the observed spectral slopes with the value of −3 predicted by current gravity wave saturation models suggests that the observed ozone fluctuations are due primarily to atmospheric gravity waves. At m = 1/(1000 m) the mean spectral amplitude is over 30 times larger in the lower stratosphere than in the troposphere. Mean vertical wavenumber spectra in area-preserving form reveal dominant vertical wavelengths of ∼2.6 km in the troposphere and ∼2.7 km in the lower stratosphere, which is consistent with the values varying between 1.5 and 3.0 km estimated from the velocity field and temperature field at these heights.     

考虑模型抖振力跨向不完全相关性效应的气动导纳识别

首先通过考虑节段模型上抖振力跨向不完全相关性效应推导了节段模型风洞试验中作用在模型断面上的分布抖振力谱和由底支式天平测到的模型总抖振力谱之间的关系。然后,以准平板断面为例,进行了格栅湍流场节段模型的测力和同步测压试验,获得了模型总抖振力谱以及模型抖振力跨向相关性函数。接着,采用等效导纳法以及抖振力自谱和抖振力脉动风速交叉谱综合残量最小二乘法分别识别了准平板节段模型等效气动导纳和六分量气动导纳,讨论了模型抖振力跨向不完全相关性效应对气动导纳识别结果的影响,并把识别得到的准平板断面气动导纳与平板断面气动导纳的理论结果---Sears 函数进行了比较。结果表明:忽略抖振力跨向不完全相关性效应(即假设节段模型分布抖振力沿跨向完全相关)而直接采用平均抖振力作为断面上分布抖振力的传统方法会导致气动导纳识别结果偏小,并且,其偏小程度会随着频率的增加而增加;此外,相对于抖振升力和扭矩相关的气动导纳分量而言,由于抖振阻力的跨向相关性比抖振升力和扭矩的跨向相关性显得更弱,因此抖振力跨向不完全相关性效应对阻力相关气动导纳分量识别结果的影响更大;利用识别得到的六分量气动导纳反算的作用在模型上的分布抖振力谱与试验中实测结果非常接近,经抖振力跨向不完全相关性效应修正后的竖向脉动风速对应的升力和扭矩气动导纳分量的识别结果与Sears函数也比较接近,从而验证了用于六分量气动导纳识别的自谱-交叉谱综合最小二乘法的可靠性。     

根据行星际闪烁观测研究耀班一激波前后太阳风电子密度功率谱的变化

采用弱散射与薄屏近似模型,利用快速傅利叶变换和阿贝尔变换的方法,对1972年6月15日耀斑一激波的行星际闪烁观测资料进行了计算,分别计算了激波前与激波后的电子密度功率谱。发现在小波数段都具有幂函数形式,并且波后幂指数值略大于波前幂指数值。说明此例激波过后小波数段功率谱略变陡。