风险管理与人的失误控制

本文详细研究了风险管理与人的失误控制中的关键问题，讨论了系统设计、运行和维护中的风险管理和各种影响因素。针对人的失误这一复杂而又难以对付的问题做了深入的分析研究，提出了容错设计和概念和设计框架，给出处理人的失误的方法。     

多目标随机决策分析的IRGSD—FDⅡ方法

本文就多目标随机决策问题,通过引进一种新的解的概念——目标满足度β与约束可行度α协调解,简称(α,β)一协调解。提出了一种决策方法——交互式参考目标满足度与可行度方法Ⅱ(IRGSD—FDⅡ),并讨论了这一方法在研究开发(R&D)项目选择问题中的应用。这一方法的基本步骤包括:替代问题的产生;决策者初始约束可行度α、目标满足度β及目标参考水平q的确定;反映决策者偏好的多属性效用函数的估计;替代目标函数的重新定义和求解;与决策者的对话;最佳(α,β)协调解的获得等等。     

随机网络仿真分析法在交通运输中的应用

本文就多个城市间建立交通运输线的课题应用随机网络技术(VERT-3)构建了一个较大的仿真模型。该模型具备强有力的逻辑判断功能和路线选择功能,并具备一定的通用性。课题仿真已通过计算机运算。结论表明,VERT-3技术具有处理较大型课题的能力。     

我国空间站工程量化风险评价工作探讨

为适应我国载人航天任务的新特点,有效支持空间站量化风险评价工作,调研了美国国家航空航天局（NASA）载人登月、国际空间站、航天飞机等载人航天项目的概率风险评价（PRA）工作,对比分析了PRA方法在不同载人航天项目中的应用效果。在此基础上,针对我国空间站工程的特点,初步提出了基于PRA的空间站工程量化风险评价方案与工作思路,对该方法在我国空间站实施所存在的问题进行了分析,并在方法规范、数据收集等方面提出了工作建议,为我国空间站量化风险评估工作提供技术支持。     

An experimental method to obtain the hard alpha anomaly distribution for titanium alloy aeroengine disks

A probability-based damage tolerance methodology has been proposed to improve the recognition of material anomalies, especially hard alpha (TiN) anomalies for aeroengine rotor disks. A key input to this method is hard alpha anomaly distribution, which reflects the occurrence rate and size of anomalies present in the finished part material of titanium rotors. Since anomalies rarely occur naturally, an experimental method is proposed to obtain the anomaly distribution for titanium alloy aeroengine disks to reflect and equivalently replace the manufacturing development in titanium industry. In general, the anomaly distribution information can be divided into two parts: the Probability of Detection (POD) curve and the detected anomaly distribution, which contains the size and frequency data of the detected anomalies. The distribution can be established based on several appropriate assumptions and derivation steps with different confidence levels of POD curves and detected anomaly distributions. In this case, the distribution can be obtained in a relatively short time as a key input to the probability-based damage tolerance methodology. Then the Probability of Failure (POF) can be calculated, and the value is found to vary with different confidence levels. On this basis, the conservative estimated POF can be obtained in conjunction with confidence levels.     

基于Bayes理论的成败型装备鉴定试验风险分析

为了充分考核成败型装备的性能指标,合理确定鉴定试验统计方案,利用Bayes理论对试验风险进行了重点研究.在选取先验分布为Beta分布的条件下,给出了工程中常用两种风险(平均风险和后验风险)的表达式,并详细解释了两种风险的研究思路和适用范围.在此基础上,从鉴定试验可能出现的结果出发,建立了最大后验风险模型,给出了其相关性...     

An intelligent approach for flight risk prediction under icing conditions

Flight risk prediction is significant in improving the flight crew’s situational awareness because it allows them to adopt appropriate operation strategies to prevent risk expansion caused by abnormal conditions, especially aircraft icing conditions. The flight risk space representing the nonlinear mapping relations between risk degree and the three-dimensional commanded vector(commanded airspeed, commanded bank angle, and commanded vertical velocity) is developed to provide the crew with practi...