基于GARCH族优选模型的舰船器材消耗预测

器材消耗量预测是做好技术保障工作的前提和基础,受设备生命周期、任务类型、海洋环境及使用设备人员的技能水平等因素的影响,舰船器材消耗量序列会随着时间的推移而产生波动现象,丛集效应和高峰厚尾特征明显。根据 AIC(A-Information Criterion)准则,对 GARCH(Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity)族模型进行比较优选,寻求一种更为合适的预测模型,实现对消耗量的准确预测。     

小样本条件下多应力加速寿命试验预测方法

鉴于导弹中的电子设备价格昂贵、可用于试验的样本量少,在开展加速试验以及寿命预测的实际工作中通常为小样本的背景。文章研究探索小样本条件下多应力加速试验寿命预测方法,分别建立通用对数线性模型、 BAS-BP神经网络模型、灰色–支持向量回归模型,结合多应力加速试验数据在各应力条件下的样本容量分别为 56组、20组、10组、5组的情况下,比较 3种模型的预测效果,分析各模型的适用场合和时机,探索小样本条件下模型的选优问题,为小样本条件下多应力加速试验寿命预测提供有益的借鉴。     

细长杆降低超声速客机气动噪声的数值分析

在超声速客机机头加装适当的细长杆可以降低飞行噪声。本文借助基于AUSM+格式的准三维数值模拟手段对7组13种细长杆方案做了分析比较,总结出了近场气体参数与远场气体参数之间的关系的规律。文章还从气体动力学理论和激波理论出发,对数值模拟结果作了解释,并揭示了细长杆降噪效果与细长杆外形的内在联系,以及近场、远场两者关系的经验公式。文章从各种方案中选取了降噪效果较好的细长杆方案做三维流场分析,并通过流固耦合计算对其结构强度做了校核,验证了方案的可行性。     

Comparison of peak characteristics of F2 ionospheric layer over Tehran region at a low solar activity period with IRI-2001 and IRI-2007 models predictions

In the present work values of peak electron density (NmF2) and height of F2 ionospheric layer (hmF2) over Tehran region at a low solar activity period are compared with the predictions of the International Reference Ionosphere models (IRI-2001 and IRI-2007). Data measured by a digital ionosonde at the ionospheric station of the Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran from July 2006 to June 2007 are used to perform the calculations. Formulations proposed by  and  are utilized to calculate the hmF2. The International Union of Radio Science (URSI) and International Radio Consultative Committee (CCIR) options are employed to run the IRI-2001 and IRI-2007 models. Results show that both IRI-2007 and IRI-2001 can successfully predict the NmF2 and hmF2 over Tehran region. In addition, the study shows that predictions of IRI-2007 model with CCIR coefficient has closer values to the observations. Furthermore, it is found that the monthly average of the percentage deviation between the IRI models predictions and the values of hmF2 and NmF2 parameters are less than 10% and 21%, respectively.     

基于循环平稳性的噪声调频干扰高分辨测向方法

根据噪声调频信号循环平稳特性分析,提出了基于阵列接收信号循环均值-空域处理的波达方向(DOA)估计算法。仿真结果表明:该算法的角度估计性能明显高于比幅比相单脉冲测角法,且在高信噪比环境中,该法的估计性能更好、运算量较小。     

现代飞机俯仰跟踪时诱发振荡预测分析

根据飞机纵向ＰＩＯ的特点，提出了预测分析ＰＩＯ所用的人－机闭环系统数学模型，其中飞机采用等效系统数学模型，驾驶员操纵采用ＭｃＲｕｅｒ模型，参数按地面人－机模拟飞行跟踪试验确定，集中介绍了四种飞机纵向ＰＩＯ预测准则，Ｓｍｉｔｈ－Ｇｅｄｄｅｓ准则，修正带宽准则，增益，相位裕度准则，Ｎｅａｌ－Ｓｍｉｔｈ原则，并提供了相应的计算方法。     

飞机纵向驾驶员诱发振荡灵敏度分析

采用系统灵敏度理论，以修正的带宽准则，增益和相位裕度准则以及Ｎｅａｌ－ｓｍｉｔｈ准则等飞机纵向驾驶员诱发振荡（ＰＩＯ）预测准则作为系统指标，建立了参数变化对诱发振荡预测指标影响的灵敏度公式，以ＪＪ７飞机为例，给出了飞机，操纵系统及驾驶员参数上述指标影响的灵敏度，根据计算结果进行了ＰＩＯ参数敏度预测分析，同时与数值仿真结果进行了对比分析。     

一种尾流消散动态预测的改进算法

尾流间隔是增大跑道容量的主要限制因素之一，为了在保持安全水平的前提下有效地增大跑道容量，可以对尾流消散进行动态预测，并据此缩减尾流间隔。研究了一种尾涡消散动态预测算法，该算法考虑了真实大气的大气分层、湍流、侧风、迎面风、风切变以及地效影响，并用一阶后向差分对该算法进行了离散化改进；在改进算法的基础上，时进近阶段尾流的消散在Matlab中进行了仿真计算；计算结果复现了尾涡的下沉现象和侧风对尾涡传输的线性累积效应。     

A Structured Mesh Euler and Interactive Boundary Layer Method for Wing/Body Configurations

To compute transonic flows over a complex 3D aircraft configuration, a viscous/inviscid interaction method is developed by coupling an integral boundary-layer solver with an Eluer solver in a ＂semi-inverse＂ manner. For the turbulent boundary-layer, an integral method using Green＇s lag equation is coupled with the outer inviscid flow. A blowing velocity approach is used to simulate the displacement effects of the boundary layer. To predict the aerodynamic drag, it is developed a numerical technique called far-field method that is based on the momentum theorem, in which the total drag is divided into three component drags, i.e. viscous, induced and wave-formed. Consequently, it can provide more physical insight into the drag sources than the often-used surface integral technique. The drag decomposition can be achieved with help of the second law of thermodynamics, which implies that entropy increases and total pressure decreases only across shock wave along a streamline of an inviscid non-isentropic flow. This method has been applied to the DLR-F4 wing/body configuration showing results in good agreement with the wind tunnel data.     

区域运输规划模型系统

提出一种区域运输规划模型系统,以求从定量的角度,预测一个区域内的货物运输量,继而确定这些运输量对该区域内存在的多种运输方式的偏好结构,最后仿真这些运量在相应的各种运输网络上的分布情况,同时仿真模型还对运输网线路经过新建或扩建后所形成的新的运量分布进行模拟。根据运量分布情况,就可提出初步的规划建设方案。