中国民航旅客量季节性问题研究

中国民航旅客量的季节性波动是经济学研究的重要命题。选取中国民航旅客量时间序列数据作为分析对象，采用年度季节强度指数（R）与月季指数（Zt），揭示中国民航旅客量的年度季节集中性与月度季节变化规律。 R值整体上呈现逐年递增的趋势，指标随季节变化明显，且按一定规律分布。 Zt 值指示4月、7月、8月、9月、10月为旺季，其余月份为淡季。民航旅客量淡旺季与游客出游行为、节假日长短、气候等因素有直接联系。研究结论为解决中国民航旅客量的淡旺季问题提供基础数据，也为调整航空公司在淡旺季时的人员、航班及其他工作安排，为缓解航空客流量供需不平衡的矛盾提供决策参考。     

Potential of IRNSS/NavIC L5 signals for ionospheric studies

Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) has developed an indigenous system named Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) or NavIC (Navigation with Indian Constellation), that consists of 7 satellites and transmits navigation signal in L and S bands. ISRO, for validation of the system, has installed many IGS (IRNSS/GPS/SBAS) receivers scattered over the Indian region. Using preliminary data from two geographically widely separated stations over India, this paper presents the results on studies on parameters of IRNSS signal quality and discusses how these parameters may be used to study the ionospheric behavior over the Indian region. The results show the importance and advantages of using IRNSS data for such studies.     

Effect of curing condition on bonding quality of scarf-repaired composite laminates

Both single-face vacuum bag curing (SVC) and double-face vacuum bag curing (DVC) can be used in scarf repair of composite structures. But different curing conditions caused by the sealing state may affect the bonding quality of scarf-repaired structures. In this paper, the effect of curing condition on bonding quality of scarf-repaired laminates was experimentally investigated in terms of surface profiles, moisture absorption curves and section profiles. In order to further explore the moisture absorption mechanism, finite element model of the repaired laminates using DVC was established with moisture diffusion of both the adhesive and composite laminates considered. This model was verified by experimental results. Based on the model of DVC case, the model of SVC case was built by changing moisture absorption parameters of the adhesive. Results show that SVC reduces the bonding quality, mainly reflecting in more adhesive inner voids and patch-to-parent dislocation. And SVC increases moisture absorption rate and moisture equilibrium content of the adhesive, and its effect on the former is far greater than that on the latter.     

A constitutive model coupling damage and material anisotropy for wide stress triaxiality

A constitutive model that can describe the damage evolution of anisotropic metal sheets during the complex forming processes which experience wide stress triaxiality history is essential to accurately predict the deformation and rupture behaviors of the processes. In this study, a modified Lemaitre damage criterion which couples with the anisotropic Barlat 89 yield function is established. The effects of stress triaxiality, Lode parameter and shear stress on damage accumulation are considered in the constitutive model. The model is numerically implemented and applied to fracture prediction in tensile tests with different stress triaxialities and a complex deformation process with wide stress triaxiality history. The good consistency of predictions and experiments indicates that the modified Lemaitre damage model has excellent fracture prediction ability. Finally, the accuracy of the model is analyzed and discussed.     

Geometric error analysis of an over-constrained parallel tracking mechanism using the screw theory

This paper deals with geometric error modeling and sensitivity analysis of an overconstrained parallel tracking mechanism. The main contribution is the consideration of overconstrained features that are usually ignored in previous research. The reciprocal property between a motion and a force is applied to tackle this problem in the framework of the screw theory. First of all, a nominal kinematic model of the parallel tracking mechanism is formulated. On this basis, the actual twist of the moving platform is computed through the superposition of the joint twist and geometric errors. The actuation and constrained wrenches of each limb are applied to exclude the joint displacement. After eliminating repeated errors brought by the multiplication of wrenches, a geometric error model of the parallel tracking mechanism is built. Furthermore,two sensitivity indices are defined to select essential geometric errors for future kinematic calibration. Finally, the geometric error model with minimum geometric errors is verified by simulation with SolidWorks software. Two typical poses of the parallel tracking mechanism are selected, and the differences between simulation and calculation results are very small. The results confirm the correctness and accuracy of the geometric error modeling method for over-constrained parallel mechanisms.     

A regional tropospheric model for airborne GPS applications

A regional tropospheric model can be constructed using surveys from GPS ground networks. Using this model the tropospheric delays of a kinematic station within the region can be interpolated. However, such a model is generally not suitable for an airborne platform high above the ground networks. In this paper, a method of constructing a regional tropospheric model for airborne GPS applications is described. First, the kinematic station in the air is projected onto the ground. Then the tropospheric delays at projected point are interpolated from those of the ground networks. Finally, the tropospheric delays at projected point are extended upward to the airborne platform using pressure and temperature gradients and humidity exponential function. For validation of this method, the data of airborne campaign carried out by BKG in cooperation with GFZ and BGR 2008 in the northern Alps are used. The results show that GPS kinematic positioning precision in height component can be improved using this method.     

几种生长模型参数的最小二乘估计方法及应用

提出一种Logistic模型、Gompertz模型、Mitscherlich模型和Bertallanffy模型的分布参数估计方法，这种方法以加权最小二乘法为基础，推导求解分布参数的方程组。利用这类曲线模型中参数形式的特点，使同时求解三个参数的问题简化为同时求解两个参数的问题，并给出求解参数耦合方程组的二重二分迭代法。预测地基沉降的计算实例表明，这种方法对于迭代初值的选取要求较低、求解速度快、精度高，而且通过选取权因子可以对已有数据实现“重近轻远”的处理。     

Grinding temperature and energy ratio coefficient in MQL grinding of high-temperature nickel-base alloy by using different vegetable oils as base oil

Vegetable oil can be used as a base oil in minimal quantity of lubrication(MQL). This study compared the performances of MQL grinding by using castor oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, corn oil, sunflower oil, peanut oil, and palm oil as base oils. A K-P36 numerical-control precision surface grinder was used to perform plain grinding on a workpiece material with a high-temperature nickel base alloy. A YDM–III 99 three-dimensional dynamometer was used to measure grinding force,and a clip-type thermocouple was used to determine grinding temperature. The grinding force, grinding temperature, and energy ratio coefficient of MQL grinding were compared among the seven vegetable oil types. Results revealed that(1) castor oil-based MQL grinding yields the lowest grinding force but exhibits the highest grinding temperature and energy ratio coefficient;(2) palm oil-based MQL grinding generates the second lowest grinding force but shows the lowest grinding temperature and energy ratio coefficient;(3) MQL grinding based on the five other vegetable oils produces similar grinding forces, grinding temperatures, and energy ratio coefficients, with values ranging between those of castor oil and palm oil;(4) viscosity significantly influences grinding force and grinding temperature to a greater extent than fatty acid varieties and contents in vegetable oils;(5) although more viscous vegetable oil exhibits greater lubrication and significantly lower grinding force than less viscous vegetable oil, high viscosity reduces the heat exchange capability of vegetable oil and thus yields a high grinding temperature;(6) saturated fatty acid is a more efficient lubricant than unsaturated fatty acid; and(7) a short carbon chain transfers heat more effectively than a long carbon chain. Palm oil is the optimum base oil of MQL grinding, and this base oil yields 26.98 N tangential grinding force,87.10 N normal grinding force, 119.6 °C grinding temperature, and 42.7% energy ratio coefficient.     

消费者创新性对手机银行使用意愿的影响研究

探索消费者创新性对手机银行使用意愿的影响,基于技术接受模型,构建了消费者创新性影响手机银行使用意愿的假设模型,依据假设模型开展了问卷调查。通过AMOS17.0软件对调查数据和假设模型进行了结构方程模型检验。研究结果表明,消费者创新性对手机银行使用意向具有显著影响,其影响机制是通过消费者对手机银行易用性和有用性的感知影响消费者对手机银行的使用态度,进而影响手机银行使用意向。在此基础上对商业银行发展手机银行提出了实践建议。     

军用飞机型号研制试飞费用估算研究

在借鉴国外经验的基础上,对国内军用飞机型号研制试飞费用的构成进行了研究,提出基于兰德DAPCA IV模型的军用飞机型号研制试飞费用估算模型,为试飞费用的估算提供了依据。