Evolution and History in a new “Mathematical SETI” model

In a recent paper (Maccone, 2011 [15]) and in a recent book (Maccone, 2012 [17]), this author proposed a new mathematical model capable of merging SETI and Darwinian Evolution into a single mathematical scheme. This model is based on exponentials and lognormal probability distributions, called “b-lognormals” if they start at any positive time b (“birth”) larger than zero. Indeed:

• 1.Darwinian evolution theory may be regarded as a part of SETI theory in that the factor f_l in the Drake equation represents the fraction of planets suitable for life on which life actually arose, as it happened on Earth.
• 2.In 2008 (Maccone, 2008 [9]) this author firstly provided a statistical generalization of the Drake equation where the number N of communicating ET civilizations in the Galaxy was shown to follow the lognormal probability distribution. This fact is a consequence of the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) of Statistics, stating that the product of a number of independent random variables whose probability densities are unknown and independent of each other approached the lognormal distribution if the number of factors is increased at will, i.e. it approaches infinity.
• 3.Also, in Maccone (2011 [15]), it was shown that the exponential growth of the number of species typical of Darwinian Evolution may be regarded as the geometric locus of the peaks of a one-parameter family of b-lognormal distributions constrained between the time axis and the exponential growth curve. This was a brand-new result. And one more new and far-reaching idea was to define Darwinian Evolution as a particular realization of a stochastic process called Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) having the above exponential as its own mean value curve.
• 4.The b-lognormals may be also be interpreted as the lifespan of any living being, let it be a cell, or an animal, a plant, a human, or even the historic lifetime of any civilization. In Maccone, (2012 [17, Chapters 6, 7, 8 and 11]), as well as in the present paper, we give important exact equations yielding the b-lognormal when its birth time, senility-time (descending inflexion point) and death time (where the tangent at senility intercepts the time axis) are known. These also are brand-new results. In particular, the σ=1 b-lognormals are shown to be related to the golden ratio, so famous in the arts and in architecture, and these special b-lognormals we call “golden b-lognormals”.
• 5.Applying this new mathematical apparatus to Human History leads to the discovery of the exponential trend of progress between Ancient Greece and the current USA Empire as the envelope of the b-lognormals of all Western Civilizations over a period of 2500 years.
• 6.We then invoke Shannon's Information Theory. The entropy of the obtained b-lognormals turns out to be the index of “development level” reached by each historic civilization. As a consequence, we get a numerical estimate of the entropy difference (i.e. the difference in the evolution levels) between any two civilizations. In particular, this was the case when Spaniards first met with Aztecs in 1519, and we find the relevant entropy difference between Spaniards an Aztecs to be 3.84 bits/individual over a period of about 50 centuries of technological difference. In a similar calculation, the entropy difference between the first living organism on Earth (RNA?) and Humans turns out to equal 25.57 bits/individual over a period of 3.5 billion years of Darwinian Evolution.
• 7.Finally, we extrapolate our exponentials into the future, which is of course arbitrary, but is the best Humans can do before they get in touch with any alien civilization. The results are appalling: the entropy difference between aliens 1 million years more advanced than Humans is of the order of 1000 bits/individual, while 10,000 bits/individual would be requested to any Civilization wishing to colonize the whole Galaxy (Fermi Paradox).
• 8.In conclusion, we have derived a mathematical model capable of estimating how much more advanced than humans an alien civilization will be when SETI succeeds.

     

复合固体推进剂非线性粘弹本构方程的微观力学分析

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Co扩散阻挡层模型的设计

通过对Ｃｏ扩散阻挡层在ＣＶＤ过程中冶金行为的理论分析,建立了计算Ｃｏ扩散阻挡层临界厚度δ临的数学模型。指出：阻挡层厚度δ≥δ临是抑制Ｃｏ对金刚石沉积不良影响的必要条件。     

运输类飞机翼身组合体参数化及快速气动力计算研究

飞机方案设计阶段,迫切需要一个能够快速评估、计算不同参数组合的翼身组合体基本气动力特性的分析平台。为满足这一实际工程设计需要,本文提出运输类飞机参数化概念和具体研究方法,结合运输机气动布局设计的基本准则,应用计算机图形学进行辅助设计,利用丰富的参数曲线,如NURBS曲线、贝塞尔曲线、拉格朗日插值等方法描述复杂的翼身组合体外形,开发了快速分析计算翼身组合体气动力特性分析平台,实现了从总体方案初步设计到MGAERO软件数值模拟的无缝过渡,并结合具体算例验证了方法的可行性和工程实用价值。     

液相过渡扩散焊

重点介绍液相过渡扩散焊的特点及国外近年的研究和应用情况。     

三值逻辑方程和组合逻辑电路函数险象的检测

对于组合逻辑电路中函数险象的检测提出一种新的方法－解三值逻辑方程法，此方法的显著特点是可以检测出在任何输入状态下电路所可能产生的所有函数险象，所给的算法很容易在计算机上实现。     

基于后缘小翼的旋翼翼型动态失速控制分析

针对后缘小翼(TEF)的典型运动参数对旋翼翼型动态失速特性的控制进行了研究。发展了一套适用于带有后缘小翼控制的旋翼翼型非定常流动特性模拟的高效、高精度CFD方法。通过求解Poisson方程生成围绕旋翼翼型的黏性贴体和正交网格,为保证后缘小翼附近的网格生成质量,建立了基于翼型点重构的方法来描述后缘小翼的偏转运动;为克服变形网格方法可能导致网格畸变的不足,发展了一套适用于带有后缘小翼控制的旋翼翼型运动嵌套网格方法。基于非定常雷诺平均Navier-Stokes(URANS)方程、双时间法、Spalart-Allmaras(S-A)湍流模型和Roe-Monotone Upwind-centered Scheme for Conservation Laws(Roe-MUSCL)插值格式,发展了旋翼翼型非定常气动特性分析的高精度数值方法,并采用Lower-Upper Symmetric Gauss-Seidel(LU-SGS)隐式时间推进方法及并行技术提高计算效率。以有试验结果验证的HH-02翼型和SC1095翼型为算例,精确捕捉了动态失速状态下的气动力迟滞效应,验证了本文方法的有效性。着重针对SC1095旋翼翼型的动态失速状态开展后缘小翼的控制分析,提出了可以体现翼型升力、阻力及力矩综合特性的关系式Po和Pc,揭示了后缘小翼振荡频率、相位差和偏转幅值对动态失速特性影响的规律。研究结果表明:当后缘小翼偏转的相对运动频率为1.0,且小翼运动规律与翼型振荡规律之间的相位差为0°时,后缘小翼能够更好地抑制翼型动态失速现象;在此状态下,当偏转幅值为10°时,SC1095翼型最大阻力系数和最大力矩系数可以分别降低19%和27%。     

基于共形几何代数的空间并联机构位置正解

将共形几何代数(CGA)引入空间并联机构位置正解中,提出了一种空间3-RPS并联机构位置正解新算法。以任意一条支链轴线与静平台平面的夹角为待求变量,基于点的CGA表达方法建立了该支链与动平台连接的铰接点关于待求变量的数学表达式;通过2次构造2个空间球和1个平面的外积,分别获得动平台其余2个铰接点的点对;利用距离公式,只需简单的平方运算可直接推导出该问题关于待求变量的一元16次输入输出方程,进而获得了该机构的全部16组解析解,无增无漏。该方法没有繁琐的坐标变换和矩阵计算,以及复杂的多元高次非线性方程组消元求解。通过数字实例计算表明,求解过程较清晰地揭示出机构运动的几何特点,几何直观性好。     

基于偏振光及重力的辅助定姿方法研究

提出了一种以太阳方向矢量为基准的偏振光导航方法,该方法利用太阳方向矢量物理意义明确的特点,消除了直接利用偏振光进行导航定向时存在的180°模糊性问题。为完全观测载体姿态,同时引入了重力观测量,提出了利用偏振光及重力矢量联合辅助定姿的方法,并详细推导了该方法的观测方程,同时给出了当姿态误差较小时,观测方程的简化线性形式。利用该姿态观测方程,设计了基于偏振光及重力辅助定姿的偏振光/GPS/SINS组合导航算法。理论分析及仿真表明,通过引入偏振光及重力矢量进行辅助定姿,导航系统可以直接观测载体的平台姿态误差,进而增强了系统对载体姿态的估计性能,且使得组合导航系统可以完成大初始姿态误差时的导航任务。