Analysis on Potential Conflict Frequency of Intersected Air Routes in Terminal Airspace Design

In order to obtain accurate conflict risks in terminal airspace design, the concept and calculation model of potential conflict frequency for intersected routes are proposed. Conflict frequency is represented by the product of horizontal conflict frequency and vertical conflict probability. The horizontal conflict frequency is derived from the probability density distribution of conflicts in a period of time. Based on the recorded radar trajectory data, the concept and model of ROUTE distance are proposed, and the probability density function of aircraft height at a specified ROUTE distance is deduced by kernel density estimation. Furthermore, vertical conflict probability and its horizontal distribution are achieved. Examples of three intersected arrival and departure route design schemes are studied. Compared with scheme 1, the conflict frequency values of the other two improved schemes decrease to 53 % and 24%, respectively. The results show that the model can quantify potential conflict frequency of intersec ted routes.     

玉树地震前的电离层异常现象分析

分析了玉树地震前地基电离层探测临界频率、GPS TEC和卫星探测原位等离子体参量等多个参数的扰动变化信息, 研究了不同高度异常变化的时空关联性. 分析发现, 在地震前一天的4月13日, 多个电离层参量出现同步扰动异常, 电离层临界频率f₀F₂异常相对滑动中值增大40%, 异常空间上存在从震中东南向西南漂移的特性; GPS TEC异常增强15TECU (1TECU=1016m-2)左右, 分布于震中南部经度15°范围内, 且有明显的磁共轭效应; DEMETER观测的原位氧离子密度N_i(O+) 4月13日为1-4月中最强的一天, 异常分布偏向赤道区, 但仅局限在30°-50°左右的经度范围内. 综合三个参量的异常特征发现, 无论是空间的局地性还是时间上的密切关联均反映这次电离层扰动可能与玉树地震孕育有关. 结合其他观测信息, 进一步探讨了这次地震孕育过程的地震电离层耦合机理.      

Assessment of precision in ionospheric electron density profiles retrieved by GPS radio occultations

The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) is a six satellite radio occultation mission that was launched in April 2006. The close proximity of these satellites during some months after launch provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the precision of Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) retrievals of ionospheric electron density from nearly collocated and simultaneous observations. RO data from 30 consecutive days during July and August 2006 are divided into ten groups in terms of daytime or nighttime and latitude. In all cases, the best precision values (about 1%) are found at the F peak height and they slightly degrade upwards. For all daytime groups, it is seen that electron density profiles above about 120 km height exhibit a substantial improvement in precision. Nighttime groups are rather diverse: in particular, the precision becomes better than 10% above different levels between 120 and 200 km height. Our overall results show that up to 100–200 km (depending on each group), the uncertainty associated with the precision is in the order of the measured electron density values. Even worse, the retrieved values tend sometimes to be negative. Although we cannot rely directly on electron density values at these altitudes, the shape of the profiles could be indicative of some ionospheric features (e.g. waves and sporadic E layers). Above 200 km, the profiles of precision are qualitatively quite independent from daytime or latitude. From all the nearly collocated pairs studied, only 49 exhibited a difference between line of sight angles of both RO at the F peak height larger than 10°. After analyzing them we find no clear indications of a significant representativeness error in electron density profiles due to the spherical assumption above 120 km height. Differences in precision between setting and rising GPS RO may be attributed to the modification of the processing algorithms applied to rising cases during the initial period of the COSMIC mission.     

Intra-annual variations of the thermospheric density at 400 km altitude from 1996 to 2006

We investigate the intra-annual variations of globally averaged thermospheric density at 400 km altitude from 1996 to 2006 by using Artificial Neural Network Method (ANNM). The results indicate that thermospheric density is governed by solar activity, and the absolute error of our model is 13.67%, less than NRLMSISE-00 model. Fourier representation can catch the intra-annual variations more accurately than NRLMSISE-00 model and JB2008 model especially during 2002. We find that the Autumn maximum is slightly greater than Spring maximum during solar minimum, while the reverse is correct during solar maximum. There is a strong linear relation between solar activity and the amplitude of annual/semiannual variations, and the correlation coefficients are 0.9534 and 0.9424, respectively. Moreover, the amplitude ratio of the annual to semiannual variation is about 1.3 averaged, and changes in different years, but it has little relation with solar activity. Besides that, the amplitude of annual variation is larger than semiannual variation during 1996 and 2006 except 1998 and 2000. The relative error of NRLMSISE-00 model is 14.95%, decreasing to 12.49% after revising, and the correlation coefficients between this empirical model and its improved results and the observation are 0.8185 and 0.9210, respectively. Finally, we suggest the revised version of MSIS series of model should use the Fourier representation to express the intra-annual variations.     

多退化变量下基于Copula函数的陀螺仪剩余寿命预测方法

针对惯性导航系统中陀螺仪多退化变量条件下的剩余寿命（RUL）预测问题,提出了一种基于Copula函数的多退化变量剩余寿命预测方法。首先,针对退化变量间不同的退化轨迹,采用不同的方法进行退化建模,并对于陀螺漂移系数样本标准差数据波动性随时间递增的特性,提出了一种方差时变的正态随机过程退化建模方法,得到了陀螺仪剩余寿命的边缘分布函数。然后,通过Copula函数来描述退化变量之间的相关性,将得到的剩余寿命的边缘分布进行融合,得到了陀螺仪剩余寿命的联合分布函数。最后,通过陀螺仪实例分析验证了方法的适用性和可行性。     

基于互相关分析的前失速先兆检测分析

针对轴流压气机流动失稳控制中的反馈信号,采用互相关分析方法对前失速先兆信号进行了检测。通过在机匣壁面周向对称布置的动态传感器对压力信号进行检测分析,并在单转子低速轴流压气机上进行了实验研究。实验中分析了不同流量工况时,对称布置动态传感器压力信号互相关系数的变化趋势,并在此基础上对前失速先兆与叶顶间隙泄漏涡非定常性进行了关联性研究;同时也分析了采用叶顶喷气作为控制手段之后,机匣壁面对称布置传感器动态压力信号的互相关系数随着喷气量增加的变化趋势。实验结果表明:互相关检测分析方法能够有效及时地检测到壁面压力锯齿波的破坏程度,有利于提高控制器的响应速度,留给作动机构充足的反应时间。而且叶顶喷气作为控制手段能够提高对称布置传感器动态压力信号的互相关系数,从而实现拓宽稳定裕度的目的。     

纳米铝粉及纳米铝粉/煤油凝胶体系能量性能研究

测定了各单组分及纳米铝粉／煤油凝胶体系的燃烧热,表征了纳米铝粉及纳米铝粉／煤油凝胶体系的能量性能。实验结果表明,随着纳米铝粉含量的增加,纳米铝粉／煤油凝胶体系的质量恒容燃烧热呈降低趋势,这是由于煤油的燃烧热值较高,铝粉的燃烧热值较低所致;而各纳米铝粉／煤油凝胶体系的密度随纳米铝粉含量的增加呈升高趋势,体系的体积燃烧热也随纳米铝粉含量增加而升高。     

基于伪相关函数的BOC无模糊跟踪性能分析

BOC(Binary-Offset-Carrier)调制广泛应用于全球导航卫星系统中,但由于BOC自相关函数的多峰导致传统码跟踪环路存在模糊性。伪相关函数(Pseudo Correlation Function, PCF)方法在本地采用两个特殊的参考信号和非线性处理以获得无模糊的相关函数。根据一种PCF方法本地参考波形设计的充分条件,推导了其无模糊函数的数学形式,并着重分析了其跟踪和抗多径性能与本地参考波形的关系。仿真结果表明：该PCF方法解决了跟踪模糊问题,且随着参考信号的宽度因子增加,其跟踪精度逐步改善;该PCF方法对于中长延迟多径干扰抑制能力较好,宽度因子为0.5或1时,其多径误差最小。     

一种新的辐射源优化识别方法

针对证据理论无法获得传感器报告、无法处理具有冲突的传感器报告、计算复杂度高、干扰环境下融合结果不可靠等缺点,提出了一种新的辐射源优化识别方法。该方法首先利用灰色关联算法来获得传感器的报告,并且提出利用信息熵解决灰色关联分析中特征权重的选择问题。然后根据传感器证据报告的特点,引入传感器可信度因子,通过构造和分解代价函数将辐射源识别问题转化为求解一个凸二次优化问题。最后,给出了一种利用对数罚函数方法求解该问题的改进方法和步骤。理论分析和仿真结果表明,与证据理论相比,新方法具有更低的计算复杂度、更好的识别能力、更广的适用性和更强的鲁棒性。
     

基于PSO算法的直接驱动阀用音圈电机优化设计

音圈电机(VCM,Voice Coil Motor)直接驱动伺服阀(DDV, Direct Drive Valve)采用VCM直接驱动滑阀阀芯,VCM的性能对DDV整体性能起决定性作用.由于VCM的几何设计参数对性能提升存在相互矛盾,需要在允许的参数空间内寻找一组最优的参数,往往需要设计者试凑多次.在介绍VCM原理和结构的基础上,分析了各设计参数对性能的影响.定义了针对DDV应用需求的VCM优化目标函数,应用变惯性权值和带收敛因子的改进粒子群优化(PSO, Particle Swarm Optimization)算法在设计约束的多维参数空间内进行VCM优化,得到满足设计约束的最优设计参数,表明PSO算法在类似应用中具有较强工程应用价值.