Theory and detection scheme of seismic EM signals transferred into the atmosphere from the oceanic and continental lithosphere

Due to the compound structure of the medium and large portions of energy transferred, a seismic excitation in the oceanic or continental lithosphere disturbs all types of geophysical fields. To investigate the problem of electromagnetic (EM) disturbances in the atmosphere from the seismically activated lithosphere, we have formulated two mathematical models of interaction of fields of different physical nature resulting in arising of the low-frequency (from 0.1 to 10 Hz by amplitude of a few hundreds of pT) EM signals in the atmosphere. First we have considered the EM field generation in the moving oceanic lithosphere and then in the moving continental one. For both cases, the main physical principles and geological data were applied for formulation of the model and characteristics of the computed signals of different nature agree with measurements of other authors. On the basis of the 2D model of the seismo-hydro-EM-temperature interaction in the lithosphere–Ocean–atmosphere domain, a block-scheme of a multisensory vertically distributed (from a seafloor up to the ionosphere) tsunami precursors’ detection system is described. On the basis of the 3D model of the seismo-EM interaction in a lithosphere–atmosphere domain, we explain why Prof. Kopytenko (Inst. IZMIRAN of Russian Acad. Sci.) and co-authors were able to estimate location of the future seismic epicenter area from their magnetic field measurements in the atmosphere near the earth’s surface.     

A glimpse at the GOCE satellite gravity gradient observations

Since 30 September 2009, following the launch and in-orbit testing of the most sophisticated gravity mission ever built, the European Space Agency (ESA) GOCE satellite is in ‘measurement mode’, providing continuous time series of satellite gravity gradient (SGG) observations and GPS satellite-to-satellite tracking (SST) observations. The availability of GPS SST observations allows the precise reconstruction of the GOCE position and thus the precise geolocation of the SGG observations. The SGG observations are based on the differences between observations taken by pairs of accelerometers, which need to be corrected first by applying a so-called calibration matrix and second by subtracting rotational terms (centrifugal and angular accelerations).     

Influence of nuclear de-excitation on observables relevant for space exploration

The composition of the space radiation environment inside spacecrafts is modified by the interaction with shielding material, with equipment and even with the astronauts’ bodies. Accurate quantitative estimates of the effects of nuclear reactions are necessary, for example, for dose estimation and prediction of single-event-upset rates. To this end, it is necessary to construct predictive models for nuclear reactions, which usually consist of an intranuclear-cascade or quantum-molecular-dynamics stage, followed by a nuclear-de-excitation stage.     

Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A_p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A_p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.     

Modeling spatial density in low earth orbits using wavelets and random search

The events that occurred after 2007 such as Chinese anti-satellite test, explosion of Briz-M upper stage, break up of cosmos-2421 and collision of cosmos-2251 with Iridium-33 satellites have completely changed the spatial density patterns in low earth orbits. This has increased the risk of collision between active satellites and debris created by them. Aftermath, the risk assessment of possible collisions called as conjunction analysis of working satellites from day to day has become more crucial. Spatial density models are useful in understanding the long-term likelihood of a collision in a particular region of space and helpful in pre-launch orbit planning. In this paper we present an algorithmic procedure for automatically estimating exact model parameters corresponding to the peak location and number of peaks using wavelets that will speed up the parameter estimation process for the models with peaks.     

反馈结构模型及应用

反馈结构结构系统的排序原理是在递阶导次结构基础上提出来的，对于元素关系很复杂的系统，可能无法建立递阶层次结构模型，而反馈结构模型就为复杂关系提供了条件。在论述了建立反馈结构模型方法的基础上，对大型工程项目总设计单位的评审这一涉及因素多，关系复决策问题，进行了分析计算，在分析反馈结构模型时，借用了图论分析的方法，并建立了两类结构的运算模型，对反馈结构运算模型和递阶层次结构模型的排序结果进行了对比研究     

复合材料红外无损检测的建模分析和热像处理

红外热成像无损检测由于检测面积大、速度快和非接触从而在复合材料缺陷检测中的应用越来越广泛.对碳纤维增强塑料的红外热成像无损检测从数学建模和热像数据处理2个方面作了研究.针对含有teflon夹片的碳纤维增强塑料试件的红外无损检测实验中出现的缺陷表面温差信号为负的"非传统"现象提出了新的数学模型,作了仿真计算,解决了常规模型预测结果与实验结果之间的矛盾.应用5种国际上流行的热像数据处理方法对实验数据进行了处理,并对各种处理方法用统计方法作了比较,结果表明傅里叶变换和相关分析法具有最高的信噪比.      

基于随机路径点模型的Ad hoc网络复杂统计特性

为了采用复杂网络理论指导Ad hoc网络拓扑结构特性研究,首先介绍复杂网络结构统计特性和随机路径点模型,并从理论上分析基于随机路径点模型的Ad hoc网络的度分布和聚类系数.利用仿真试验的方法产生基于随机路径点模型下的Ad hoc网络各种移动场景,得出Ad hoc网络在这些移动场景下的平均最短路径长度、聚类系数和度分布等复杂统计特性.通过分析仿真试验数据回答Ad hoc网络是否具有小世界效应、Ad hoc网络度分布形态如何以及是否具有无标度属性等问题.      

To the problem on the reliability of solar energetic proton flux models

This work analyses basic issues of conformity of the most well-known models of solar energetic particles (SEP) fluxes to the experimental data. It is shown, that the postulates on neglecting SEP fluxes in quiet Sun years and on invariability SEP fluxes in active Sun years, underlying some models, contradict the experimental data.     

Improving dUT1 from VLBI intensive sessions with GRAD gradients and ray-traced delays

Exact knowledge of the angle of Earth rotation UT1 with respect to coordinated time UTC, dUT1, is essential for all space geodetic techniques. The only technique which is capable of determining dUT1 is Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). So-called Intensive VLBI sessions are performed on a daily basis in order to provide dUT1. Due to the reduced geometry of Intensive sessions, there is however no possibility to estimate tropospheric gradients from the observations, which limits the accuracy of the resulting dUT1 significantly. This paper deals with introducing the information on azimuthal asymmetry from external sources, thus attempting to improve the dUT1 estimates. We use the discrete horizontal gradients GRAD and the empirical horizontal gradients GPT3 as well as ray-traced delays from the VieVS ray-tracer for this purpose, which can all be downloaded from the VMF server of TU Wien (http://vmf.geo.tuwien.ac.at). The results show that this strategy indeed improves the dUT1 estimates when compared to reference values from multi-station VLBI stations, namely by up to 15%. When converted to length-of-day (LOD), the estimates can be compared to LODs from global analyses of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Here, the improvement amounts to up to 7% compared to neglecting a priori information on azimuthal asymmetry.