Predicting indices of the ionosphere response to solar activity for the ascending phase of the 25th solar cycle

The international reference ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, models require reliable prediction of solar and ionospheric proxy indices of solar activity for nowcasting and forecasting of the ionosphere parameters. It is shown that IRI prediction errors could increase for the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the peak height hmF2 due to erroneous predictions of the ionospheric global IG index and the international sunspot number SSN1 index on which IRI and IRI-Plas models are built. Regression relation is introduced to produce daily SSN1 proxy index from new time series SSN2 index provided from June 2015, after recalibration of sunspots data. To avoid extra errors of the ionosphere model a new solar activity prediction (SAP) model for the ascending part of the solar cycle SC25 is proposed which expresses analytically the SSN1 proxy index and the 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 index in terms of the phase of the solar cycle, Φ. SAP model is based on monthly indices observed during the descending part of SC24 complemented with forecast of time and amplitude for SC25 peak. The strength of SC25 is predicted to be less than that of SC24 as shown with their amplitudes for eight types of indices driving IRI-Plas model.     

Essential features of long-term changes of areas and diameters of sunspot groups in solar activity cycles 12–24

We analyze the Greenwich catalog data on areas of sunspot groups of last thirteen solar cycles. Various parameters of sunspots are considered, namely: average monthly smoothed areas, maximum area for each year and equivalent diameters of groups of sunspots. The first parameter shows an exceptional power of the 19th cycle of solar activity, which appears here more contrastively than in the numbers of spots (that is, in Wolf’s numbers). It was found that in the maximum areas of sunspot groups for a year there is a unique phenomenon: a short and high jump in the 18th cycle (in 1946–1947) that has no analogues in other cycles. We also studied the integral distributions for equivalent diameters and found the following: (a) the average value of the index of power-law approximation is 5.4 for the last 13 cycles and (b) there is reliable evidence of Hale's double cycle (about 44?years). Since this indicator reflects the dispersion of sunspot group diameters, the results obtained show that the convective zone of the Sun generates embryos of active regions in different statistical regimes which change with a cycle of about 44?years.     

A global solution for robust parameter design of aeronautical electrical apparatus based on interactions analysis and polynomial fitting

Robust Parameter Design (RPD) has been widely applied for improving quality and reliability of products. One of the key drawbacks of applying RPD using Taguchi method is that the stable factors may not be independent of the adjustment factors, resulting in unsatisfactory design. Moreover, the Taguchi method cannot guarantee global optimality since the levels set in the experiment are usually discrete to ensure orthogonal design. In this paper, robust solutions of the stable factors are obtained via a nonlinear model based on polynomial fitting; while the adjustment factors are obtained via interactions analysis so that they are independent of the stable factors. In particular, the values of the adjustment factors are determined by output offset compensation so as to achieve robustness of the design scheme. An example on the design of an aeronautical electrical apparatus is presented to illustrate the procedure. The results show that the proposed method can take full advantage of the nonlinearity in the response and achieve the desired outcome.     

基于希尔伯特-黄变换的雷达数据误差修正处理技术

由于雷达跟踪测量数据总存在误差,而目前采用的误差处理算法修正效果并不理想,为了有效估计数据中的未知误差,提高数据处理的精度,提出了一种基于希尔伯特-黄算法的雷达误差残差诊断方法,利用得到的内蕴模态函数拟合出误差残差的特征,准确分离出设备的误差信息。通过对某雷达的实测数据分析证明该方法较其他方法对解决该类问题更为有效,且在事后高精度数据处理中具有较好的实用性。     

基于角动量守恒的空间机器人动力学参数辩识

空间机器人由于加工、装配误差以及在轨燃料消耗等因素使其名义公称参数与实际 动力学参数相比存在一定的误差。空间机器人路径规划和地面机器人不同,其广义雅克比 矩阵包含动力学参数,使计算的轨迹偏离实际要求的路径,引起末端位姿误差。本文根 据自由飘浮空间机器人的角动量守恒方程式,对一种两自由度空间机器人的基座以及机械臂 的各个关节分别单独做三次多项式轨迹激励,利用基于偏差模型的最小二乘法和遗传算 法对动力学参数进行辨识。仿真结果表明,遗传算法的计算稳定性和对动力学参数辩识精 度优于最小二乘法。〖JP〗     

基于单目视觉的空间非合作目标相对运动参数估计

提出了一种估计空间非合作目标相对运动参数的单目视觉方法,该方法将相对运动参数估计问题描述为一个非线性约束优化问题．通过迭代求解特征值问题来确定基本矩阵,将基本矩阵分解可得到相对运动参数的4个可能解,给出了消除旋转矩阵多义解的简单判断准则．数值仿真结果验证了该方法的有效性．     

基于PEA的椭圆轨道航天器编队飞行高精度位置保持

针对航天器编队飞行时相对位置保持精度要求高的特点,采用基于线性变参数模型的多项式特征结构配置方法设计椭圆轨道航天器间相对位置控制算法。对于线性变参数控制系统,本文将基于线性定常系统的多项式特征结构配置方法推广以确保系统性能与变化参数间的独立性。在特征结构配置时,先设计带参数变化的控制器结构后计算出带未知控制器增益的设计闭环传递函数,接着将其与含有闭环系统性能的期望传递函数在三个条件下进行匹配,进而获得未知控制器增益的表达式。在设计实际控制椭圆轨道编队飞行MIMO相对位置保持算法时,将系统期望传递函数设为解耦形式来实现三轴位置控制间的解耦控制,达到提高系统控制性能的目的。最后进行相应的数学仿真,其结果表明该算法能够保证系统的高精度位置保持要求。     

基于双目视觉的相对状态自主确定

基于双目视觉系统提出了一种适于交会对接最后阶段的近距离绕飞的相对状态自主确定方法。用修正罗德里格参数(MRP)描述姿态,给出了追踪器与目标器间的相对姿态运动学与动力学方程,以及相对运动方程,根据双目视觉系统的小孔成像原理建立了双目系统的测量数学模型,由扩展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)获得两航天器的相对位姿及其变化率。仿真结果表明该法可行。     

RBCC发动机初步设计CAD系统研究

研究了一种用于火箭基组合循环发动机(RBCC)初步设计与方案分析的CAD系统。分析并解决了发动机几何特征参数提取、性能分析模型、设计计算集成、三维图形造型与显示等关键技术。基于AC IS几何造型内核软件,搭建了火箭基组合循环发动机初步设计的CAD平台,并利用该平台进行了算例分析。结果表明,该CAD平台能有效地进行火箭基组合循环发动机的设计与分析,实现了设计、计算一体化,为此类发动机实验器的设计提供了技术支持。     

火箭/冲压组合发动机工作特性分析

为分析火箭/冲压组合发动机在不同工作模态下的工作特性,对其在没有二次补燃情况下的内流场进行了数值模拟和分析,结果表明:(1)在火箭引射模态,火箭发动机应尽可能工作在其设计状态;(2)为有利于掺混燃烧,在较低的高度、较高的速度下由引射模态转换到亚燃冲压模态可能比较好;(3)在亚燃冲压模态,火箭发动机以某种低工况工作对冲压发动机的点火和火焰稳定是极为有利的;(4)在纯火箭模态,进气道关闭与否对组合发动机的整体性能几乎没有影响;为了获得较高的性能,二次喷管应采用扩张通道。