系统可靠性增长评估模型研究

根据系统在研制期间故障强度变化规律,考虑故障间隔时间影响的情况下,提出了广义可靠性增长评估模型,分析了其参数特性,并给出了拟合优度检验方法;然后,给出了定时截尾和定数截尾情况下,模型参数的极大似然估计公式,采用Simpson方法将积分函数化为求和函数,使得参数估计计算方便,给出了趋势检验方法给出了可靠性增长评估公式;最后,结合发动机故障数据进行了的实例分析,结果表明,模型对试验数据拟合较好,评估结果符合工程实际,模型具有实际应用价值.      

可靠性增长的单调约束模型

大型复杂产品研制过程中每一阶段的试验数据通常具有小样本特征.对此在产品可靠性评估中,提出使用约束条件,即"下一阶段可靠度真值总是大于前一阶段",综合利用产品多阶段试验数据的方法.产品研制过程中可靠性通常是增长的,因此这种方法具有广泛的适用性.在上述约束条件下,可靠度被看作一个随机变量.首先推导出了可靠度在此条件下的分布函数表达式,然后给出了一种近似计算方法,最后通过一个实例与仅使用单阶段试验数据的评估结果作了对比.由于该方法的约束条件简单且可以求得可靠度的分布函数,因此其工程适应性强于传统的AMSAA(Army Materiel System Analysis Activity)模型,并能获得Duane模型无法给出的可靠度区间估计.     

Instability of the present LEO satellite populations

Several studies conducted during 1991–2001 demonstrated, with some assumed launch rates, the future unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects. In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new breakup debris due to collisions would exceed the loss of objects due to orbital decay.     

疲劳多裂纹扩展随机模型

建立了含相互干扰多裂纹结构的裂纹扩展随机模型.提出了远源裂纹、近源裂纹、概率寿命曲面等概念.给出了相互干扰多裂纹扩展随机微分方程的统一表达形式.在工程基本假设的基础上简化了相互干扰多裂纹扩展过程的计算.在此基础上可进一步分析含相互干扰多裂纹结构的可靠性,可直接应用于工程实践.     

指数分布可靠性增长分析的Bayesian整体推断方法

本文引入服从广义逆Gamma分布的折合因子,得到一种指数可靠性增长下失效率的Bayes整体推断技术,并采用Laguerre-Gauss积分方法得到了折合因子分布参数的精确数值解,通过典型示例与其它确定分布参数的方法进行比较,可知这种方法更加接近工程实际。     

固体火箭发动机界面脱粘裂纹分析

使用有限元法,在裂纹尖端周围布置有限奇异裂纹单元以模拟裂纹尖端附近的奇异性。针对轴对称发动机头部的界面脱粘裂纹,计算了点火内压作用下,发动机衬层/药柱、壳体/绝热层界面不同深度脱粘裂纹尖端的应力强度因子,指出应力强度因子随裂纹深度的发展规律。结果表明,当裂纹深度较小时,衬层/药柱界面处于闭合状态,应力强度因子几乎不发生变化,随着裂纹深度的增加,裂纹呈张开状态,裂纹尖端的应力强度因子不断增大;壳体/绝热层界面裂纹总是处于张开状态,且应力强度因子随裂纹深度的增加而增大。     

固体火箭发动机药柱表面裂纹分析

为了分析含表面裂纹的固体火箭发动机药柱在温度、燃气内压与轴向过载联合作用下的扩展情况,在固体火箭发动机的危险截面上沿危险方向预设表面裂纹。采用有限元方法,在裂纹尖端构建三维奇异裂纹元,模拟裂纹扩展,分别计算随着裂纹扩展所对应裂纹深度的应力强度因子,得到了应力强度因子随裂纹深度的变化规律。根据应力强度因子的变化规律,探讨了发动机药柱裂纹扩展的趋势。     

航空工业技术进步的经济效益分析

运用非中性技术进步模型对航空工业1954年～1988年的技术进步与经济增长情况进行了定量研究,所得结论是:在航空工业35年的发展过程中,劳动投入增长对产出增长的贡献是第一位的,其次是技术进步增长,最后是资本投入增长。文章最后对我国航空工业的技术进步与经济增长政策提出两点建议。     

疲劳裂纹随机扩展模型

疲劳裂纺在扩展过程中有很大分散性，根据不同的来源将这种分散性归为两类：材料固有的内在分散和外、环境等引起的外在分散性。     

Geometry and size optimization of stiffener layout for three-dimensional box structures with maximization of natural frequencies

Based on the growth mechanism of natural biological branching systems and inspiration from the morphology of plant root tips, a bionic design method called Improved Adaptive Growth Method (IAGM) has been proposed in the authors’ previous research and successfully applied to the reinforcement optimization of three-dimensional box structures with respect to natural frequencies. However, as a kind of ground structure methods, the final layout patterns of stiffeners obtained by using the IAGM are highly subjected to their ground structures, which restricts the optimization effect and freedom to further improve the dynamic performance of structures. To solve this problem, a novel post-processing geometry and size optimization approach is proposed in this article. This method takes the former layout optimization result as start, and iteratively finds the optimal layout angles, locations, and lengths of stiffeners with a few design variables by optimizing the positions of some specific node lines called active node lines. At the same time, thicknesses of stiffeners are also optimized to further improve natural frequencies of three-dimensional box structures. Using this method, stiffeners can be successfully separated from their ground structures and further effectively improve natural frequencies of three-dimensional box structures with less material consumption. Typical numerical examples are illustrated to validate the effectiveness and advantages of the suggested method.