Assessment of the consequences of the Fengyun-1C breakup in low Earth orbit

On 11 January 2007, the People’s Republic of China conducted a successful anti-satellite test against one of their defunct polar-orbiting weather satellites. The target satellite, called Fengyun-1C, had a mass of 880 kg and was orbiting at an altitude of about 863 km when the collision occurred. Struck by a direct-ascent interceptor at a speed of 9.36 km/s, the satellite disintegrated, spreading the cataloged fragments between 200 and 4000 km, with the highest concentration near the breakup height. By the end of April 2008, 2377 pieces of debris, including the original payload remnant, had officially been cataloged by the US Space Surveillance Network. Of these, nearly 1% had reentered the Earth’s atmosphere. This deliberate act is the largest debris-generating event on record, and its consequences will adversely affect circumterrestrial space for many years.     

飞机操纵系统舵机与助力器运动碰撞研究

飞机操纵系统中因舵机输出较快,助力器响应较慢而存在相互运动碰撞,影响操纵品质和飞行安全。对发生碰撞的机理进行了深入分析,建立了舵机与助力器运动特性匹配关系和用于碰撞研究的数学模型,通过实例,找到了对碰撞最有影响的参量。     

民航机场风险评价模型应用探讨

机场安全是民航安全管理的重点之一,是正确的指导民航风险管理工作的重要内容.在对民航机场进行风险因素辨识及风险分析的基础上,利用层次分析法和模糊数学理论建立了民航机场风险评价模型,并以首都机场为评价对象,对其进行了风险评价.     

Cellular communication and “non-targeted effects”: Modelling approaches

During the last decade, a large number of experimental studies on the so-called “non-targeted effects”, in particular bystander effects, outlined that cellular communication plays a significant role in the pathways leading to radiobiological damage. Although it is known that two main types of cellular communication (i.e. via gap junctions and/or molecular messengers diffusing in the extra-cellular environment, such as cytokines, NO etc.) play a major role, it is of utmost importance to better understand the underlying mechanisms, and how such mechanisms can be modulated by ionizing radiation. Though the “final” goal is of course to elucidate the in vivo scenario, in the meanwhile also in vitro studies can provide useful insights. In the present paper we will discuss key issues on the mechanisms underlying non-targeted effects and cell communication, for which theoretical models and simulation codes can be of great help. In this framework, we will present in detail three literature models, as well as an approach under development at the University of Pavia. More specifically, we will first focus on a version of the “State-Vector Model” including bystander-induced apoptosis of initiated cells, which was successfully fitted to in vitro data on neoplastic transformation supporting the hypothesis of a protective bystander effect mediated by apoptosis. The second analyzed model, focusing on the kinetics of bystander effects in 3D tissues, was successfully fitted to data on bystander damage in an artificial 3D skin system, indicating a signal range of the order of 0.7–1 mm. A third model for bystander effect, taking into account of spatial location, cell killing and repopulation, showed dose–response curves increasing approximately linearly at low dose rates but quickly flattening out for higher dose rates, also predicting an effect augmentation following dose fractionation. Concerning the Pavia approach, which can model the release, diffusion and depletion/degradation of candidate signals (e.g. cytokines) travelling in the extra-cellular environment, the good agreement with ad hoc experimental data obtained in our laboratory validated the adopted approach, which in the future can be applied also to other candidate signals.     

Micro-meteoroids and space debris impact risk assessment for the ConeXpress satellite using ESABASE2/Debris

Micro-meteoroid and space debris impact risk assessments are performed to investigate the risk from hypervelocity impacts to sensitive spacecraft sub-systems. For these analyses, ESA’s impact risk assessment tool ESABASE2/Debris is used. This software tool combines micro-particle environment models, damage equations for different shielding designs and satellite geometry models to perform a detailed 3D micro-particle impact risk assessment. This paper concentrates on the impact risk for exposed pressurized tanks. Pressure vessels are especially susceptible to hypervelocity impacts when no protection is available from the satellite itself. Even small particles in the mm size range can lead to a fatal burst or rupture of a tank when impacting with a typical collision velocity of 10–20 km/s. For any space mission it has to be assured that the impact risk is properly considered and kept within acceptable limits. The ConeXpress satellite mission is analysed as example. ConeXpress is a planned service spacecraft, intended to extend the lifetime of telecommunication spacecraft in the geostationary orbit. The unprotected tanks of ConeXpress are identified as having a high failure risk from hypervelocity impacts, mainly caused by micro-meteoroids. Options are studied to enhance the impact protection. It is demonstrated that even a thin additional protective layer spaced several cm from the tank would act as part of a double wall (Whipple) shield and greatly reduce the impact risk. In case of ConeXpress with 12 years mission duration the risk of impact related failure of a tank can be reduced from almost 39% for an unprotected tank facing in flight direction to below 0.1% for a tank protected by a properly designed Whipple shield.     

Collision Probabilities for Keplerian Orbits

We present a new derivation of the probability of collisions between spherical satellites occupying Keplerian orbits. The equations follow from the central concept of the instantaneous collision rate, an expression that describes the occurrence of collisions by using a Dirac -function. The derivation proceeds by showing how this instantaneous collision rate can be averaged over orbital mean anomaly angles and, additionally, over orbital precession angles to generate expressions appropriate for intermediate and long time scales. Collision rates averaged over mean anomalies tend to be non-zero during relatively brief collision seasons, when the peak collision probability may exceed the long-term average by several orders of magnitude. Derived precession-angle averages have a functional form similar but not identical to the collision probability expression derived using the spatial density approach of Kessler (Icarus, 48: 39–48, 1981), and the two methods have been found to yield numerical results to within 1% for all cases examined.     

涡轮盘概率风险的评估方法

针对CCAR33.70条款对涡轮盘开展概率风险评估的要求,研究了响应面法在定义重点采样区间以及计算裂纹扩展寿命中的应用,给出了在蒙特卡洛模拟过程中应用响应面法定义失效域,缩短样本方差、提高抽样效率的方法.分析结果表明应用重点采样法可以极大地提高抽样效率.采用重点采样法获得的失效样本数与总样本数的比例高达94%,远大于传统的直接抽样法获得的失效样本数与总样本数的比例（仅为33%）.该方法可以在保证分析精度的条件下减少样本的数量.另外,应用响应面法拟合寿命近似方程,可以极大地缩减裂纹扩展寿命的计算时间:利用寿命近似方程开展104次随机抽样所花费的时间仅有2min,远低于应用传统寿命计算方法所花费的时间（288 min）.通过对寿命近似方程的寿命计算误差分析可以看出:最大计算误差仅有1.0%,计算结果与传统裂纹扩展寿命模型的计算结果吻合度高.该研究成果可以提高涡轮盘概率风险评估的效率.      

民用飞机最小风险炸弹位置适航符合性验证方法研究

民用飞机最小风险炸弹位置(LRBL)是航空运营面对炸弹爆炸恐怖袭击的最后一道安全屏障,对民用飞机的安全性有重要意义。针对国内民用飞机LRBL工作缺乏适航符合性验证方法研究的现状,以AC25.795 6为指导,以满足FAR 25.795(c)(1)中有关LRBL的适航要求为目标,首次对LRBL的适航符合性验证方法进行研究;通过该工作,一方面明确了LRBL周围设备的系统安全性适航符合性验证方法,增强LRBL相关系统安全性分析工作在型号设计中的可操作性;另一方面,通过开展爆炸物在LRBL发生爆炸对飞机结构的安全性影响分析,得出了LRBL周围结构设计的适航符合性验证方法。该研究建立了面向FAR25.795(c)(1)的LRBL适航符合性验证体系,为提高产品的安全性和适航性提供了更为详实、可操作的设计方法。     

断路器风险分析在航空装备修理中的应用

对断路器开展风险分析是对航空装备修理质量的保障。针对断路器在航空装备各系统中的功用,识别出各断路器的风险级别,并将风险分析结论应用于航空装备修理中,可提高航空装备的修理质量。