传感器位置误差条件下仅用到达频率差的无源定位性能分析

传感器自身的位置误差对辐射源的无源定位精度可能有较大影响,详细分析并推导了在存在传感器位置误差条件下,仅使用到达频率差(FDOA)参数对辐射源定位时,定位精度的克拉美罗下限(CRLB)和均方误差(MSE).在传感器位置误差条件下,提出仅用FDOA来同时估计辐射源和传感器位置的泰勒级数方法,并证明该定位方法理论上的MSE...     

基于ARIMA模型的拉萨降水量时间序列分析与预测

应用差分自回归滑动平均模型（ARIMA）模型对西藏拉萨地区1969年至2009年的年降水量资料进行建模分析。建立的模型通过了参数的显著性检验和模型的显著性检验。模型的实证分析表明在短期内模型具有较高的预测精度,ARIMA模型可以较好的应用于降水量的预测,对相关部门采取措施应对自然灾害提供了理论支持。     

单逆变器驱动的多相电机串联系统综述

为了实现同一逆变器(VSI)供电的多电机独立运行的问题,近年来提出了一种新颖的基于广义零序谐波分量的多相电机串联系统。文章对这种新型的单逆变器驱动多相多电机串联系统的发展需求、工作原理、国内外研究概况等方面进行了详细地阐述,深入地分析了这种驱动系统的优缺点,总结了需要深入研究的关键技术。     

Effects on noise properties of GPS time series caused by higher-order ionospheric corrections

Higher-order ionospheric (HOI) effects are one of the principal technique-specific error sources in precise global positioning system (GPS) analysis. These effects also influence the non-linear characteristics of GPS coordinate time series. In this paper, we investigate these effects on coordinate time series in terms of seasonal variations and noise amplitudes. Both power spectral techniques and maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) are used to evaluate these effects quantitatively and qualitatively. Our results show an overall improvement for the analysis of global sites if HOI effects are considered. We note that the noise spectral index that is used for the determination of the optimal noise models in our analysis ranged between −1 and 0 both with and without HOI corrections, implying that the coloured noise cannot be removed by these corrections. However, the corrections were found to have improved noise properties for global sites. After the corrections were applied, the noise amplitudes at most sites decreased, among which the white noise amplitudes decreased remarkably. The white noise amplitudes of up to 81.8% of the selected sites decreased in the up component, and the flicker noise of 67.5% of the sites decreased in the north component. Stacked periodogram results show that, no matter whether the HOI effects are considered or not, a common fundamental period of 1.04 cycles per year (cpy), together with the expected annual and semi-annual signals, can explain all peaks of the north and up components well. For the east component, however, reasonable results can be obtained only based on HOI corrections. HOI corrections are useful for better detecting the periodic signals in GPS coordinate time series. Moreover, the corrections contributed partly to the seasonal variations of the selected sites, especially for the up component. Statistically, HOI corrections reduced more than 50% and more than 65% of the annual and semi-annual amplitudes respectively at the selected sites.     

用纽曼随机有限元分析复合材料回旋结构的可靠性

将纽曼级数展开应用于蒙特卡罗随机有限元，对每一次随机抽样，只需一次形成刚度矩阵，进行前代、回代及矩阵的乘法和加法（减法）运算，可使随机有限元计算时间大为缩短。然后采用蒙特卡罗直接比较法，计算一复合材料回旋结构的可靠性。     

基于时间序列的空中交通流量灰预测模型算法

利用灰色预测理论,给出了一种空域内空中交通流量进行预测分析的算法——空中交通流量灰预测法,并利用Matlab软件作为计算工具,对管制区域、机场等空域流量的预测进行了仿真,计算结果以图表和图形的形式给出直观说明,验证了该算法的有效性。     

非线性时间序列在卫星通信网络数据预测中的研究

卫星通信网络数据预测在卫星通信系统中起着重要的作用,是系统建模的主要研究内容之一。由于卫星通信网络数据的非平稳性和不可预知因素的影响,决定了应采用非线性时间序列建模方法来分析、预测。在分析通信网络数据的基础上,建立卫星通信网络数据的ARIMA模型,在确定预测模型的阶和进行参数估计后,给出不同预测步数条件下的通信网络数据流量的预测,并进行了仿真对比实验。仿真结果表明,该模型在预测步数较小的情况下,预测误差在4％左右,具有良好的预测精度,为卫星通信网络数据流量的预测、异常检测和网络负载预测的应用奠定了坚实的基础。     

基于模型预测控制的非线性飞行控制系统研究

应用泰勒级数展开方法设计了飞行器六自由度非线性模型预测控制器.通过对控制向量和输出向量的有限泰勒级数展开,确定闭环形式的控制输入.仿真结果表明:该方法能够适应控制项不完全或缺少控制项的病态情况,适当选择控制器的泰勒展开阶数可得到最优的控制结果,所设计的模型预测控制器具有很好的跟踪效果.     

Combining frequency and time domain models to forecast space weather

Space weather series incorporate several distinct components, cycles at multiple frequencies, irregular trends, and nonlinear variability. The cycles are stochastic, i.e., the amplitude varies over time. Similarly, the trend is stochastic: the slope and direction of trending change repeatedly. This study sets out a combined model using both frequency and time domain methods, in two stages. In the first stage, a frequency domain algorithm is estimated and forecasted. In the second stage, the forecast is used as an input in a neural network. The combined model also includes a term enabling the model to react inversely to large deviations between the actual values and forecast. The models are evaluated using two data sets, the hemispheric power data obtained from the Polar Orbiting Environment satellites, and the Aa geomagnetic index. All the series are at a daily resolution. Forecasting experiments are run over horizons of 1–7 days. The models are estimated using a moving window or adaptive approach. The combined model consistently achieves the most accurate results. Among single equation methods, the frequency domain model is more accurate for the geomagnetic index because it is able to capture the underlying cycles more effectively. In the hemispheric power series, the cycles are less pronounced, so that time domain methods are more accurate, except at very short horizons. Nevertheless, in both data sets, the combined model works well because the frequency domain algorithm captures cyclical behavior, while the neural net is better able to capture short-term dependence and trending.     

定位环系列产品的工艺及模具设计

按定位环系列产品外径大小,设计了三种定位环系列产品压制模具结构,不仅结构合理,制造成本低,而且做到了一模多用。