一种自适应模糊控制器及其在电解铝过程控制中的应用

针对一类被控变量不能直接连续测量的复杂系统 ,提出一种自适应模糊控制方法。它能够根据控制效果 ,自校正控制参数 ,优化控制规则。这一方法已成功应用到电解铝过程的氧化铝浓度控制中。实际运行结果表明 ,这种控制方法能满足控制要求 ,达到了节能降耗的目的     

Six sigma robust design optimization for thermal protection system of hypersonic vehicles based on successive response surface method

Lightweight design is important for the Thermal Protection System(TPS) of hypersonic vehicles in that it protects the inner structure from severe heating environment. However, due to the existence of uncertainties in material properties and geometry, it is imperative to incorporate uncertainty analysis into the design optimization to obtain reliable results. In this paper, a six sigma robust design optimization based on Successive Response Surface Method(SRSM) is established for the TPS to improve the reliability and robustness with considering the uncertainties. The uncertain parameters related to material properties and thicknesses of insulation layers are considered and characterized by random variables following normal distributions. By employing SRSM, the values of objective function and constraints are approximated by the response surfaces to reduce computational cost. The optimization is an iterative process with response surfaces updating to find the true optimal solution. The optimization of the nose cone of hypersonic vehicle cabin is provided as an example to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.     

RAD-7测氡仪检定结果不确定度的评定

依据量值传递关系,列举了量值传递中的数学模型;依据数学模型,介绍了测氡仪检定结果不确定度的评定方法;结合JJG 825—2013《测氡仪检定规程》RAD-7的检定,评定出了RAD-7测氡仪检定结果体积活度响应的相对合成标准不确定度;结果表明,检定结果的不确定度主要受氡从液体镭源转移过程和被检仪器计数能力的影响。     

振动传感器的微加速度动态校准

阐述了高灵敏度振动传感器在超低频微小加速度下进行动态校准的校准装置工作原理、校准方法 ,分析了其校准不确定度。该装置采用曲率半径为 10m的虚拟摆结构 ,从较强的环境干扰噪声中利用数字滤波技术成功地拾检微弱振动信号 ,使微小标准加速度获得复现。该装置可在 (0 .0 0 1～ 0 .1)Hz超低频率范围内和 (1× 10 -6～ 1× 10 -2 )m s2 微小加速度范围内实现高准确度激光绝对校准和比较法校准 ,其校准不确定度达 0 .5%。     

纵波法探伤定量分析的不确定度评定

测量不确定度在检测工作中非常重要,ＩＳＯ等国际组织已有要求。本文分析了超声波探伤纵波检测的误差来源,评定了在探伤过程中的不确定度。     

Advanced ensemble modeling method for space object state prediction accounting for uncertainty in atmospheric density

For objects in the low Earth orbit region, uncertainty in atmospheric density estimation is an important source of orbit prediction error, which is critical for space traffic management activities such as the satellite conjunction analysis. This paper investigates the evolution of orbit error distribution in the presence of atmospheric density uncertainties, which are modeled using probabilistic machine learning techniques. The recently proposed “HASDM-ML,” “CHAMP-ML,” and “MSIS-UQ” machine learning models for density estimation (Licata and Mehta, 2022b; Licata et al., 2022b) are used in this work. The investigation is convoluted because of the spatial and temporal correlation of the atmospheric density values. We develop several Monte Carlo methods, each capturing a different spatiotemporal density correlation, to study the effects of density uncertainty on orbit uncertainty propagation. However, Monte Carlo analysis is computationally expensive, so a faster method based on the Kalman filtering technique for orbit uncertainty propagation is also explored. It is difficult to translate the uncertainty in atmospheric density to the uncertainty in orbital states under a standard extended Kalman filter or unscented Kalman filter framework. This work uses the so-called “consider covariance sigma point (CCSP)” filter that can account for the density uncertainties during orbit propagation. As a test-bed for validation purposes, a comparison between CCSP and Monte Carlo methods of orbit uncertainty propagation is carried out. Finally, using the HASDM-ML, CHAMP-ML, and MSIS-UQ density models, we propose an ensemble approach for orbit uncertainty quantification for four different space weather conditions.     

C/C喉衬热化学烧蚀的高维不确定量化分析

为了定量化地评估SRM喷管喉衬烧蚀这一复杂物理化学过程中,不同因素相互制约或激励对喉衬烧蚀整体情况产生的耦合影响,并探寻影响喉衬烧蚀率的关键因素,应用自主研发的高维不确定量化算法,有效解决“维度灾难”问题,研究了燃烧室压强、燃气比热比等７个因素对烧蚀的耦合影响规律,并通过全局敏感度分析技术探究了不同关键因素对烧蚀率变化的贡献程度。研究发现:就烧蚀模型物理机制本身而言,影响烧蚀率的关键因素为燃气比热比、喉部马赫数和燃气温度;考虑实验实际中相关物理量的不确定性输入后,燃烧室压强由于自身较大的不确定度输入成为影响烧蚀率的首要因素。     

飞机结冰的不确定性量化研究进展

为深入认识影响飞机结冰的不确定性及其研究方法,从自然条件结冰、冰风洞试验、数值模拟等方面,介绍了飞机结冰不确定性来源,以蒙特卡洛法、多项式混沌法和随机配置法等为例,系统分析了各种不确定性量化方法在计算能力、求解精度等方面的优劣。考虑飞机结冰不确定性量化处于起步时期,重点综述了数值模拟中结冰条件不确定性对冰形和气动特性的影响。从结合单步法和多步法确定最佳结冰时间步长来提升结冰计算精度和效率、对其他关键部件进行结冰不确定性量化从而为更精细化的防/除冰系统的设计提供支撑,以及通过建立高精度的代理模型来代替原本复杂的数值模拟系统以应对考虑多个不确定性因素共同作用所带来的计算挑战等多个方面,全面展望不确定性量化方法及其在飞机结冰应用中的发展方向。     

软件可靠性的量化问题讨论

在航天器中,随着软件数量的增多,软件可靠性问题日趋尖锐。软件可靠性不能只停留在定性分析阶段,要建立明确的可靠性指标,要通过全任务剖面建立起来的测试用例,对给定软件作长时间的测试和可靠性评价,以便展现软件可靠性不断增长的过程。本文介绍软件可靠性量化的方法,供软件研制者参考。     

线性仪表静态不确定度的统计估算

侧重分析静态回归直线误差模型及工程应用的可行性 ,通过例证比较说明统计估算法的优势。阐述环境温度引起仪表回归直线的平移和旋转 ,导出温度误差为零位温漂及灵敏度温漂相对值的代数和 ;该误差模型具有通用性 ,可推广至其它环境因素对回归直线影响的分析。介绍时漂的基本概念及经验公式。强调静态不确定度应包括回归直线误差及环境因素影响的误差。