Uncertainties in gravity wave parameters,momentum fluxes,and flux divergences estimated from multi-layer measurements of mesospheric nightglow layers

Measurements of dynamic parameters of atmospheric gravity waves, mainly the vertical wavelength, the momentum flux and the momentum flux divergence, are affected by large uncertainties crudely documented in the scientific literature. By using methods of error analysis, we have quantified these uncertainties for frequently observed temporal and spatial wave scales. The results show uncertainties of ～10%, ～35%, and ～65%, at least, in the vertical wavelength, momentum flux, and flux divergence, respectively. The large uncertainties in the momentum flux and flux divergence are dominated by uncertainties in the Brunt-Väisälä frequency and in spatial separation of the nightglow layers, respectively. The measured uncertainties in fundamental wave parameters such as the wave amplitude, intrinsic period, horizontal wavelength, and wave orientation are ～10% or less and estimated directly from our nightglow image data set. Other key environmental quantities such as the scale height and the Brunt-Väisälä frequency, frequently considered as constants in gravity wave parameter estimations schemes, are actually quite variable, presenting uncertainties of ～4% and ～9%, respectively, according to the several solar activity and seasonal atmosphere scenarios from the NRLMSISE-00 model simulated here.     

卫星单元肼推进系统轨控过程不确定性研究

以卫星单元肼推进系统轨控过程为研究对象，利用数值模拟手段研究了轨控过程中推进系统贮箱压力、贮箱温度、轨控时长等参数对轨控效果的定量影响，考察了在轨标定推力系数对于轨控模型的修正效果。选取某近地卫星对其轨道控制历史数据进行分析，通过在轨实测数据对轨控模型进行了验证。结果表明，采用在轨标定推力修正系数能够有效地降低轨道控制模型的平均误差，平均误差值从3.615%减至1.924%；通过参数敏感性分析，得出贮箱温度的总体影响不超过0.2%，贮箱压力的总体影响不超过5%。通过对点火时长的影响分析发现，在不同的贮箱压力下，存在一个特定的临界点火时长；轨控时长低于临界点火时长时，贮箱压力的变化将不会被压力传感器识别。针对某低轨卫星，寿命初期箱压1.8MPa时，临界点火时长为8.5秒；寿命末期0.5Mpa时，临界点火时长为319.8秒。     

Satellite collision probability estimation using polynomial chaos expansions

This paper presents the application of polynomial chaos (PC) to estimating the probability of collision between two spacecraft. Common methods of quantifying this probability for conjunction assessment use either Monte Carlo analyses or include simplifying assumptions to improve tractability. A PC expansion, or PCE, provides a means for approximating the solution to a large set of stochastic ordinary differential equations, which includes orbit propagation. When compared to Monte Carlo methods, non-intrusive, i.e., sampling-based, PCE generation techniques may greatly reduce the number of orbit propagations required to approximate the possibly non-Gaussian, a posteriori probability density function. The presented PC-based method of computing collision probability requires no fundamental simplifying assumptions, and reduces the computation time compared to Monte Carlo. This paper considers two cases where the common conjunction assessment assumptions are no longer valid. The results indeed demonstrate a reduction in computation time when compared to Monte Carlo, and improved accuracy when compared to simplified techniques.     

涡轮动叶凹槽状叶顶传热特性和气动性能的不确定性量化研究

基于非嵌入式多项式混沌展开方法,结合Smolyak稀疏网格技术与Sobol Indic方法构建了涡轮动叶凹槽状叶顶传热特性和气动性能不确定性量化分析系统。研究并量化了几何参数叶顶间隙和运行工况参数主流进口总温与气膜冷却吹风比不确定性对涡轮动叶凹槽状叶顶气热特性的影响。不确定性分析结果表明：在考虑叶顶间隙与主流进口总温和吹风比不确定性的情况下,叶顶换热量 基本符合正态分布。 的统计均值相对于设计值增加13.56%并且其偏离设计值10%的概率高达65.68%。相比叶顶尾缘区域,叶顶前缘部分的换热量对不确定性输入更加敏感。前缘区域的叶片壁面换热量 的不确定性明显大于尾缘部分。在叶顶间隙与主流进口总温和吹风比不确定性的影响下,0-80%轴向弦长区域内叶顶总压损失系数存在微小偏差,但在80%轴向弦长以后区域总压损失系数的不确定性偏差会达到约50%。敏感度分析的结果表明主流进口总温是叶片换热性能不确定性的主导变量,其对 与 不确定性的贡献分别为93.87%和98.32%。叶顶气动性能的不确定性则完全由叶顶间隙控制,其对叶顶总压损失系数不确定性的方差占比高达86.44%。与主效应相比,各变量间的二阶交互效应对叶顶气热性能的影响几乎可以忽略不计。     

非接触式静电电压测量仪校准方法研究

根据非接触式静电电压测量仪的工作原理,建立了一套非接触式静电电压测量仪校准系统.重点介绍了校准系统的组成和工作过程,以及决定校准系统测量准确度关键因素的标准平板电极的设计原则,并通过实验数据分析了标准平板电极的直径和边缘效应对测量结果的影响.最后以常用的非接触式静电电压测量仪EST101为例,根据校准装置测量不确定度主...     

威胁级别判断技术的研究

介绍了影响威胁级别的各种因素及威胁级别的计算模型，提出了基于非线性结构的威胁因素对威胁级别的树形权值分配法，给出了各威胁因素隶属度的确定方法。此外，还以某型地空导弹为例，介绍了突防航迹的威胁总量以及速度因素对威胁级别的影响，为进一步开展飞机航迹规划和任务规划研究提供了参考。     

基于Ⅲ类模糊数量化法的航空公司安全评估

为了客观和科学地评价航空公司安全状况，建立了涉及航空公司运行、维护、管理和机队表现的安全指标，通过使用基于模糊数量化Ⅲ类方法对这些指标进行处理，将模糊定性指标转化为定量指标，使航空公司在安全状况和风险方面显示出相对于其他公司的总体安全水平。以4家航空公司为例，进行了分析计算，并在二维坐标轴上将评估结果绘制成散点图，以获得每家航空公司的安全情况，并帮助航空公司确定自身在管理方面存在的不安全因素及找出改进方法。     

湍流模型系数不确定度对翼型绕流模拟的影响

使用非嵌入式多项式混沌方法研究了湍流模型系数的不确定度对RAE2822跨声速翼型绕流模拟的影响。计算中关注了数值模拟的积分量（升力系数、阻力系数）和局部量（壁面压力、摩擦系数和空间马赫数分布）的不确定度量化结果。首先,从单输入变量入手,研究卡门常数的不确定度对数值模拟的影响。然后,同时考虑Spalart-Allmaras模型中9个参数的不确定度带来的影响。通过多项式混沌展开,得到系统输出对不确定输入变量的响应,由此可以得到输出的统计特性,包括平均值、方差和极值等信息。最后,在多变量不确定度量化过程中,通过Sobol指标来量化每个输入变量的不确定度对输出不确定度的贡献程度。本文计算只考虑了RAE2822跨声速翼型模拟的单一计算状态,影响规律是否可以推及其他工况和算例需要进一步检验。     

Robust decentralized control design for aircraft engines: A fractional type

A new decentralized control for aircraft engines is proposed. In the proposed control approach, aircraft engines are considered as uncertain large-scale systems composed of interconnected uncertain subsystems. For each subsystem, the time-varying uncertainty, including parameter disturbances and interconnections in/between subsystems, is depicted by a class of general nonlinear functions. A fractional robust decentralized control with two parts, the nominal one and the fractional one, is presented. The nominal control guarantees the asymptotical stability of the engine system without uncertainty. The fractional part aims at overcoming the influences of uncertainty. Compared to the previous studies, the presented control provides not only an extra flexibility for the system performance tuning by the fraction-type gain but also a facility for the control input calculation. The proposed control approach is applied to a turbofan engine with two subsystems. The computer simulation shows that, in the flight envelope, the fractional control not only guarantees the closed-loop system uniform boundedness and ultimate uniform boundedness but also shows good economy.