靶场测控通信系统可靠性分析

首先确定了测控通信系统可靠性分析框架，然后针对系统构型为串并联系统、试验信息为成败型数据／寿命型数据的情况，研究了可靠性信息融合的Bayes方法，最后讨论了系统可靠性的Bayes统计推断问题，包括点估计、置信估计和假设检验。     

A Possible Transfer Mechanism for the 11-Year Solar Cycle to the Lower Stratosphere

Observational evidence of the 11-year solar cycle (SC) modulation of stratosphere temperatures and winds from the ERA-40 dataset is reviewed, with emphasis on the Northern winter hemisphere. A frequency modulation of sudden warming events is noted, with warmings occurring earlier in solar minimum periods than in solar maximum periods. The observed interaction between the influence of the SC and the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) on the frequency of sudden warmings is noted as a possible clue for understanding their mechanism of influence. A possible transfer route for the 11-year solar cycle from the equatorial stratopause region to the lowest part of the stratosphere is proposed, via an influence on sudden warming events and the associated induced meridional circulation. SC and QBO composites of zonal wind anomalies show anomalous wind distributions in the subtropical upper stratosphere in early winter. Mechanistic model experiments are reviewed that demonstrate a sensitivity of sudden warmings to small wind anomalies in this region. Various diagnostics from these experiments are shown, including EP fluxes and their divergence and also the synoptic evolution of the polar vortex, in order to understand the mechanism of the influence. Some recent GCM experiments to investigate the SC/QBO interaction are also described. They simulate reasonably well the observed SC/QBO interaction of sudden warming events and appear to support the hypothesis that tropical/subtropical upper stratospheric wind anomalies are an important influence on the timing of sudden warmings.     

恒温热源条件下实际回热式布雷顿循环的功率密度优化

计人工质与高、低温侧换热器和回热器的热阻损失、压气机和涡轮机中不可逆压缩和膨胀损失及管路系统中的压力损失，用有限时间热力学方法，导出了恒温热源条件下实际回热式布雷顿循环功率密度与压比间的解析式，借助于数值计算，研究了高、低温侧换热器和回热器的热导率分配对最大功率密度的影响。     

不同生命周期项目组合的约束资本预算优化模型及算法

文章给出了约束资本预算优化模型的一般数学表达式.根据詹姆斯*范霍恩的共同生命周期法的理论,提出了一种对不同生命周期项目组合的约束资本预算优化的新算法.通过算例,说明了新算法与原有算法的差别,结果表明新算法考虑了项目的重置,在满足各种约束的前提下,按照净现值指数的大小选择项目组合,从总体上寻优,得到的净现值总和更大,具有更为优化的特征.     

喷管冷吹风实验的推力架设计

本文介绍了柔性推力架和刚性推力架在喷管风洞实验中的表现.讨论了: 为什么风洞实验中使用柔性推力架达不到推力测量的精度要求?为什么试车台上用柔性推力架又是可行的.通过分析,找到了问题的根源在于风洞实验中用的是气体介质,而试车台上用的介质是液体推进剂.     

空载固体发动机计算与试验模态相关性分析

为了预测空载状态固体火箭发动机动态特性,对其进行了模态试验,并应用MSC.Marc进行了模态计算,然后对比两者的结果,进行了相关性分析和评估。计算得到了发动机250Hz以内的一阶弯曲模态和五阶呼吸模态。试验测得了发动机的三阶呼吸模态和一阶弯曲模态。比较试验测试模态和与之对应的计算模态:固有频率相对误差均在5%以内;振型相关图上的点大都分布在斜率为1(或 1)的直线周围;MAC(模态置信判据)值在0 9左右。说明计算与试验模态有较好的相关性,有限元计算模型比较准确的反映了实际情况。     

L8飞机从风洞到飞行的抖振相关性研究

介绍了Ｌ８飞机抖振边界修正结果，并与同类飞机Ｌ２９飞行抖振边界进行了比较；给出了Ｌ８飞机抖振边和轻度抖振边界预测值。同时将预测抖振边界和试飞得到的抖振边界作了比较。     

一种基于余数周期的 PRI精确估计算法

针对传统脉冲重复间隔（PRI）分选算法在估计PRI方面存在的不足，提出了一种对PRI周期信号的周期进行精确估计的算法。该算法首先从待分选脉冲序列中提取出属于一部雷达的脉冲样本，然后利用同余方程的余数周期性质对该雷达脉冲序列的PRI进行精确的估计。相对于传统的PRI估计算法，该算法有效地消除了TOA量化误差对PRI估计造成的影响，可以精确地估计出雷达脉冲序列的准确 PRI数值，从而能够更好地满足信号分选算法的处理需求。理论推导及仿真实验均表明了该算法的有效性。     

Time-dependent cosmic ray modulation

Time-dependent cosmic ray modulation is calculated over multiple solar cycles using our well established two-dimensional time-dependent modulation model. Results are compared to Voyager 1, Ulysses and IMP cosmic ray observations to establish compatibility. A time-dependence in the diffusion and drift coefficients, implicitly contained in recent expressions derived by , ,  and , is incorporated into the cosmic ray modulation model. This results in calculations which are compatible with spacecraft observations on a global scale over consecutive solar cycles. This approach compares well to the successful compound approach of Ferreira and Potgieter (2004). For both these approaches the magnetic field magnitude, variance of the field and current sheet tilt angle values observed at Earth are transported time-dependently into the outer heliosphere. However, when results are compared to observations for extreme solar maximum, the computed step-like modulation is not as pronounced as observed. This indicates that some additional merging of these structures into more pronounced modulation barriers along the way is needed.     

Solar cycle variation of “killer” electrons at geosynchronous orbit and electron flux correlation with the solar wind parameters and ULF waves intensity

To construct models for hazard prediction from radiation belt particles to satellite electronics, one should know temporal behavior of the particle fluxes. We analyzed 11-year variation in relativistic electron flux (E>2 MeV) at geosynchronous orbit using measurements made by GOES satellites during the 23rd sunspot cycle. As it is believed that electron flux enhancements are connected with the high-speed solar wind streams and ULF or/and VLF activity in the magnetosphere, we studied also solar cycle changes in rank order cross-correlation of the outer radiation belt electron flux with the solar wind speed and both interplanetary and on-ground wave intensity. Data from magnetometers and plasma sensors onboard the spacecraft ACE and WIND, as well as magnetic measurements at two mid-latitude diametrically opposite INTERMAGNET observatories were used. Results obtained show that average value of relativistic electron flux at the decay and minimum phases of solar activity is one order higher than the flux during maximum sunspot activity. Of all solar wind parameters, only solar wind speed variation has significant correlation with changes in relativistic electron flux, taking the lead over the latter by 2 days. Variations in ULF amplitude advance changes in electron flux by 3 days. Results of the above study may be of interest for model makers developing forecast algorithms.