Measuring tidal deformations at Europa’s surface

Key information on Europa’s interior can be gained by monitoring tidally-induced surface deformations from orbiting and landed spacecraft. Such observations would provide constraints on the thickness and rheology of Europa’s ice and liquid water layer, being thus an important tool to characterize basic physical properties of the satellite’s putative subsurface water ocean. Focusing on the outer ice-I layer we will present relations between the interior of Europa and key tidal parameters that can be retrieved from an instrument suite monitoring tidally-induced changes of local gravity, tilt, latitude and strain at the surface. A most promising approach would involve laser altimetry and gravitational field observations from an orbiting spacecraft combined with monitoring of tidally-induced gravity and tilt changes at the surface. However, tidal measurements at the surface may be significantly impeded by instrumental drift, instrument coupling to the surface, local sources of noise and the presumably short life-time of the instruments due to the harsh radiation environment.     

基于空中交通复杂性的管制员通话负荷回归分析

管制员工作负荷的合理评估对保障空中交通系统安全运行具有重要作用。基于空中交通复杂性提出了一种管制员通话负荷的定量化预测方法，首先采集厦门空管站的雷达数据计算得出9个空中交通复杂性评价指标数据，通过共线性诊断发现复杂性指标间存在较强的多重共线性，进而采用主成分分析方法从多个复杂性评价指标中提取了2个主成分，最后基于多元线性回归分析方法建立了管制员通话负荷与交通复杂性评价指标间的定量关系，并通过实测通话数据进行验证。     

An Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System for the detection of thermal and TEC anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan,Iran, (Mw = 6.4) earthquake of 11 August 2012

Anomaly detection is extremely important for forecasting the date, location and magnitude of an impending earthquake. In this paper, an Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) has been proposed to detect the thermal and Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan, Iran, (M_w = 6.4) earthquake jolted in 11 August 2012 NW Iran. ANFIS is the famous hybrid neuro-fuzzy network for modeling the non-linear complex systems. In this study, also the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed anomalies by applying the classical and intelligent methods including Interquartile, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) methods. The duration of the dataset which is comprised from Aqua-MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) night-time snapshot images and also Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM), is 62 days. It can be shown that, if the difference between the predicted value using the ANFIS method and the observed value, exceeds the pre-defined threshold value, then the observed precursor value in the absence of non seismic effective parameters could be regarded as precursory anomaly. For two precursors of LST and TEC, the ANFIS method shows very good agreement with the other implemented classical and intelligent methods and this indicates that ANFIS is capable of detecting earthquake anomalies. The applied methods detected anomalous occurrences 1 and 2 days before the earthquake. This paper indicates that the detection of the thermal and TEC anomalies derive their credibility from the overall efficiencies and potentialities of the five integrated methods.     

Fronts and thermohaline structure of the Brazil–Malvinas Confluence System

Fronts and thermohaline structure of the Brazil–Malvinas Confluence System (BMCS) are studied from climatic data, “Marathon Exp. Leg.8, 1984” data, and Sea surface temperature (SST) data base “ds277-Reynolds” (1981–2000). The South Atlantic Central Water (SACW) is divided in two main types: tropical (TW) and subtropical water (ST). Water masses, Fronts, Inter-Frontal and Frontal Zones are analysed and classified: (a) the water masses: Tropical Low-Salinity Water, Tropical Surface Water, Tropical Tropospheric Water, Subtropical Low-Salinity Water, Subtropical Surface Water, Subtropical Tropospheric Water. T,S characteristics of intermediate, deep and bottom water defined by different authors are confirmed and completed; (b) the Inter-Frontal Zones: Tropical/Brazil Current Zone, Subtropical Zone and Subantarctic Zone; (c) the Frontal Zones: Subtropical, Subantarctic and Polar, and (d) the Fronts: Subtropical Front of the Brazil Current, Principal Subtropical Front, North Subtropical Front, Subtropical Surface Front, South Subtropical Front, Subantarctic Surface Front, Subantarctic Front and Polar Front. Several stable T–S relationships are found below the friction layer and at the Fronts. The maximum gradient of the oceanographic characteristics occurs at the Brazil Current Front, which can be any of the subtropical Fronts, depending on season. Minimum mean depth of the pycnocline coincides with the Fronts of the BMCS, indicating the paths of low-salinity shelf waters into the open ocean. In the work it is shown how to recover the horizontal and vertical thermohaline structure of waters from satellite data RSMAS SST.     

添加镍粉和二硼化锆防静电涂层的对比研究

对添加镍粉和二硼化锆涂层的导电性进行了对比试验，讨论了添加型防静电涂层的防静电机理。试验结果表明：添加型防静电涂层导电通路的形成是导电粒子的直接接触和隧道效应综合作用的结果。文中还推导了计算涂层中导电粒子间距的近似公式。     

天津市宏观税收负担问题实证分析

采用计量分析方法对天津市1978～2005年数据区间的财政收入与经济总量、宏观税负与经济增长之间的关系进行研究。在结合天津市经济发展、税收增长、产业结构变化等实际情况的基础上，试图通过揭示变量之间的数量关系来印证和探寻天津市宏观税负与地区经济发展之间的关系。发现改革开放以来，天津总体税负适度，宏观税负呈下降趋势，但滨海新区的开发将为天津提供充足的税源，因而宏观税负会有所回升；20世纪90年代以来，天津第三产业发展迅速，第三产业对经济的贡献度与宏观税负的变化呈正向反应机制，而第二产业对GDP的贡献比重总体呈下降趋势；与其他直辖市相比，天津的宏观税负水平居于中游。     

铝合金构件的原位快速表面处理方法研究

着重探讨了在外场操作条件下，对航空铝材进行原位、快速表面处理的几种方法以及不同表面处理对粘接效果的影响。结果表明：对受损的通用航空铝合金(LY12-CZ)表面，采用自行研制的酸膏进行氧化处理，能造就具有一定特征形貌的铝合金表面氧化层，从而使粘接强度提高76．0％，并可实现对构件表面的快速、原位处理，能满足装备构件外场修复的基本要求。     

商服用房二级市场需求的一种预测方法

本文通过建立的回归模型，对商服用房的销售量进行了预测。     

硝胺推进剂界面键合的表征研究

从红外光谱分析，表面（界面）自由能测定、光电子能谱分析等方面，研究了键合剂，包覆固体填料颗粒对界面增强的效果，并与静态力学性能的数据进行了对比，结果表明；取代酰胺类键合剂对ＨＭＸ间的作用力为氢键。效果倨于醇胺，多元胺类化合物，其中一种键合剂对ＨＭＸ的浸润可以在热力学和动力学两方面达到较好的统一，键合效果并不仅仅取决于包覆度的大小，还与键合剂附着在ＨＭＸ表面上形成的界面层或预包覆层的性质有关。     

基于支持向量回归的机场旅客吞吐量预测

在分析现有机场旅客吞吐量预测方法不足的基础上,利用基于结构风险最小化原则的支持向量回归方法,建立了机场旅客吞吐量预测模型。通过实际数据的检验及与BP神经网络等方法的预测结果比较,证明应用支持向量回归方法对机场旅客吞吐量进行预测具备可行性,同时具有较高的预测精度。