区域运输规划模型系统

提出一种区域运输规划模型系统,以求从定量的角度,预测一个区域内的货物运输量,继而确定这些运输量对该区域内存在的多种运输方式的偏好结构,最后仿真这些运量在相应的各种运输网络上的分布情况,同时仿真模型还对运输网线路经过新建或扩建后所形成的新的运量分布进行模拟。根据运量分布情况,就可提出初步的规划建设方案。     

基于任务分析的飞行机组失误预测研究

在过去的20年内有多起严重事故由机组失误引起,采取措施防止或减少飞行机组失误成为降低航空事故率的关键.通过使用人误预测技术预测机组在执行飞行任务时的失误,寻找失误原因,进一步改进驾驶舱设计或增加培训来降低航空事故率是可行的方法.本研究以民航领域飞行安全需求为背景,在原有人误预测技术基础上,开发了基于任务分析的飞行机组失误预测模型,以某型飞机起飞任务为例,对飞行机组在操纵飞机起飞过程中可能发生的人误进行分析,实现了飞行机组失误的定性和定量预测.     

Stability analysis of an aeroelastic system with friction

In this paper, harmonic balance method, exact formulation and numerical simulation method are adopted to study the effects of different friction stiffness on the stability of 1.5 degrees of freedom aeroelastic system. On this basis, the expressions of input energy and dissipated energy are deduced, and the energy method is used to reveal the mechanisms of the stable boundary and unstable boundary existing in the system and the effects of different friction stiffness on the stability of the system. Studies have shown that the stability region and the critical aerodynamic damping ratio of the system rise with the increase of the friction stiffness, while the friction stiffness has little effect on the stability boundary. In the analysis of the stability of system, the results of harmonic balance method, exact formulation and Newmark of numerical simulation method are in good agreement. Compared with exact formulation and numerical simulation method, the concept and conclusion of harmonic balance method are simple in the system stability analysis.     

高超声速边界层的转捩及预测

首先描述了边界层转捩的基本过程及研究内容。在此基础上,指出了高超声速边界层不同于不可压缩边界层的流动不稳定性特性,并介绍了边界层的转捩机理与感受性特征;给出了高超声速三维边界层中预测转捩的常用方法,并着重介绍了多用于工程实际的e N方法以及对e N方法的理性改进,同时列举了在高超声速三维边界层中应用e N方法实现转捩预测的多个实例。最后,分析并总结了高超声速边界层转捩预测所存在的困难及需要解决的问题。     

时域有限体积法的格式稳定性分析

以模型方程为例,采用MUSCL插值的S-W通量分裂格式,分别结合二步、四步龙格一库塔时间推进格式建立数值求解方法.用Von Neumann傅里叶级数分析方法,通过对不同格式的放大因子及色散因子的计算,分析了时域有限体积法(FVTD)格式的稳定性.     

基于三因素模型的企业持续经营高风险预测研究

随着竞争的日趋激烈，企业持续经营不确定性显著增加，尽旱识别企业持续经营面临的风险，对于企业管理者、投资者来说都具有重要意义。现有的持续经营高风险研究依然没有摆脱“资料驱动型”的困境，文章根据三因素模型建立持续经营高风险预测模型。     

Effects of yaw-roll coupling ratio on the lateral-directional departure prediction and restraint

The experimental data obtained from yaw-roll coupled wind tunnel tests are used for lateral-directional departure prediction, by linearizing the_b model to extract nominal dynamic derivatives at each coupling ratio.The prediction results are compared with those of the existing engineering methods which are based on the conventional aerodynamic derivatives.The comparison shows that the yaw-roll coupling ratio has a great influence on the departure susceptibility.The departure resistance will loss in partial region of the coupling ratio when the angle of attack is higher than a critical value.According to the stable and unstable regions of coupling ratio, a two-segment stability augmentation system with two different feedback gain matrices is obtained by pole-placement method.The two-segment stability augmentation system is used in the simulations of straight and level flight, steady turn, spin recovery and Herbst maneuver.The simulation results are also compared with the applications of a fixed-gain stability augmentation system designed by the conventional aerodynamic derivatives.When the yaw-roll coupling effects are fully considered, the two-segment stability augmentation system is more effective for departure restraint and can provide a better flying quality with less control energy.     

多尺度子域基函数矩量法解的稳定性与迭代法

通过对几个具体实例的计算，证实了在电磁场边值问题的矩量法求解过程中，选用不同的基函数其解的数值稳定性会有很大的差别。从而有可能选择一种数值稳定性比较好的基函数来进行矩量法求解。另一方面，提出了选用多尺度子域基函数，并通过多次迭代来提高矩量法解的精度的算法。实例计算表明，该算法不仅可以有效地降低系数矩阵的条件数，而且还降低了对计算机内存容量的要求，是一种有效的、稳定的算法     

关于外测新体制的一些分析与思考

针对外测新体制下数据处理中遇到的一些重要问题进行了较为深入的讨论。认真分析了多站测速系统的严重病态以及样条约束的EMBET算法在目标非平稳段的剩余截断误差等制约弹道处理精度的重要问题,并提出解决问题的思路与方法。     

循环电载荷下大功率LED金引线疲劳断裂寿命预测

随着大功率发光二极管（LED）在照明领域的普及与广泛应用,可靠性逐渐成为研究的重点。大功率LED封装器件中金引线疲劳断裂失效一直是制约其可靠性的重要因素。通过针对大功率LED封装器件中的金引线力学仿真与功率循环试验相结合的方法,首先确定循环电载荷条件下该型LED的主要失效原因为金引线疲劳断裂,其次提出基于电流加速模型的加速因子提取方法和基于应变幅值的Coffin-Manson解析寿命预测方法,最终完成对LED金引线疲劳断裂寿命的预测和试验验证。研究结果表明:所提方法具有较高的寿命预测精度,可以满足大功率LED封装器件可靠性快速、准确评估的要求。