数理统计方法在部件故障控制中的应用研究

机载部件的可靠性直接影响航空器的安全运行。本文通过对机载部件使用寿命的统计和失效分析,对部件的故障提出了有效的控制方法,并举例说明了此方法在维护中的使用。     

Effects on winter circulation of short and long term solar wind changes

Indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation show correlations on the day-to-day timescale with the solar wind speed (SWS). Minima in the indices were found on days of SWS minima during years of high stratospheric aerosol loading. The spatial distribution of surface pressure changes during 1963–2011 with day-to-day changes in SWS shows a pattern resembling the NAO. Such a pattern was noted for year-to-year variations by Boberg and Lundstedt (2002), who compared NAO variations with the geo-effective solar wind electric field (the monthly average SWS multiplied by the average southward component, i.e., negative Bz component, of the interplanetary magnetic field). The spatial distribution of the correlations of geopotential height changes in the troposphere and stratosphere with the SWS; the geo-effective electric field (SWS∗Bz); and the solar 10.7 cm flux suggests that solar wind inputs connected to the troposphere via the global electric circuit, together with solar ultraviolet irradiance acting on the stratosphere, affect regional atmospheric dynamics.     

Aircraft nonlinear stability analysis and multidimensional stability region estimation under icing conditions

Icing is one of the crucial factors that could pose great threat to flight safety,and thus research on stability and stability region of aircraft safety under icing conditions is significant for control and flight.Nonlinear dynamical equations and models of aerodynamic coefficients of an air craft are set up in this paper to study the stability and stability region of the aircraft under an icing condition.Firstly,the equilibrium points of the iced aircraft system are calculated and analyzed based on the theory of differential equation stability.Secondly,according to the correlation theory about equilibrium points and the stability region,this paper estimates the multidimensional stability region of the aircraft,based on which the stability regions before and after icing are compared.Finally,the results are confirmed by the time history analysis.The results can give a reference for stability analysis and envelope protection of the nonlinear system of an iced aircraft.     

基于ALE法的水陆两栖飞机船体着水性能分析

水陆两栖飞机的着水性能是体现其综合性能的重要因素之一.应用ALE法对三种水陆两栖飞机船体截面进行入水仿真计算,从着水载荷、喷溅性能及运动响应三个方面对着水性能进行综合评估.对比分析了直线型、带舭弯弧形、复合型三种构型截面在不同速度、不同重量下的压力分布、喷溅性能以及运动响应,得到了三种截面横向压力分布规律.计算结果显示相同状态下,喷溅性能复合型优于带舭弯弧形、带舭弯弧形优于直线型;过载复合型远大于带舭弯弧形,带舭弯弧形稍大于直线型,综合看来带舭弯弧形截面着水性能最佳.     

军用飞机型号研制试飞费用估算研究

在借鉴国外经验的基础上,对国内军用飞机型号研制试飞费用的构成进行了研究,提出基于兰德DAPCA IV模型的军用飞机型号研制试飞费用估算模型,为试飞费用的估算提供了依据。     

Sunspot cycle 23 descent to an unusual minimum and forecasts for cycle 24 activity

The decay phase of the sunspot cycle 23 exhibited two unusual features. First, it lasted too long. Second, the interplanetary magnetic field intensity at earth orbit reached the lowest value since in situ measurements in space began in October 1963. These physical anomalies significantly altered the early forecasts for the sunspot activity parameters for cycle 24, made by several colleagues. We note that there was a significant change in the solar behavior during cycle 22. We discuss the observed trends and their effect on our empirical solar activity forecast technique, leading to our prediction for cycle 24 parameters; cycle 24 will be only half as active as cycle 23, reaching its peak in May 2013. We speculate on the possible implications of this outcome on future earth climate change and the ensuing socio-economic consequences.     

维修方案项目优化的可靠性分析方法

通过可靠性管理对民用航空器维修方案的动态监控,实施对维修方案项目执行情况的跟踪和可靠性分析,以机队实际运行数据为背景,提出对维修方案项目管理系统性的优化和管理方法,以使航空公司的维修方案更加符合机队的实际使用和维护特点,进一步提高机队的运行效率、降低维修成本和提高航班准点率。     

飞机大部件自动对接同步调姿方法

提出了飞机大部件自动对接同步调姿方法,实现了大部件调姿基准点的连续自动跟踪测量和位姿连续调整.在此基础上开发了集测量场构建、大部件位姿解算和调整等功能于一体的大部件自动对接集成控制软件,并在ARJ21飞机翼身自动对接现场进行了应用试验,结果证明该方法能有效完成飞机翼身自动对接过程,提高测量和对接效率.     

基于幂函数模型的民机结构腐蚀扩展寿命评定方法研究

基于飞机结构腐蚀清除后测量获取的腐蚀深度,提出了飞机结构腐蚀扩展寿命的幂函数动态预测模型以及模型参数定义方法,确定了腐蚀条件下的飞机结构腐蚀扩展寿命评定指标,建立了基于运营状态下飞机结构腐蚀信息更新的民用飞机结构腐蚀扩展寿命评定方法。     

维修性设计在民用飞机环控系统中的应用

民用飞机环控系统维修性工作的目标是保证设计、研制和生产的民用飞机满足规定的适航要求,以提高飞机的可用性,从而降低对维修人力及其他资源的要求,缩减运营成本,使飞机具有良好的经济性和市场竞争力。