Comparing proton fluxes of central meridian SEP events with those predicted by SOLPENCO

We have developed an operational code, SOLPENCO, that can be used for space weather prediction schemes of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. SOLPENCO provides proton differential flux and cumulated fluence profiles from the onset of the event up to the arrival of the associated traveling interplanetary shock at the observer’s position (either 1.0 or 0.4 AU). SOLPENCO considers a variety of interplanetary scenarios where the SEP events develop. These scenarios include solar longitudes of the parent solar event ranging from E75 to W90, transit speeds of the associated shock ranging from 400 to 1700 km s⁻¹, proton energies ranging from 0.125 to 64 MeV, and interplanetary conditions for the energetic particle transport characterized by specific mean free paths. We compare the results of SOLPENCO with flux measurements of a set of SEP events observed at 1 AU that fulfill the following four conditions: (1) the association between the interplanetary shock observed at 1 AU and the parent solar event is well established; (2) the heliolongitude of the active region site is within 30° of the Sun–Earth line; (3) the event shows a significant proton flux increase at energies below 96 MeV; (4) the pre-event intensity background is low. The results are discussed in terms of the transit velocity of the shock and the proton energy. We draw conclusions about both the use of SOLPENCO as a prediction tool and the required improvements to make it useful for space weather purposes.     

To the problem on the reliability of solar energetic proton flux models

This work analyses basic issues of conformity of the most well-known models of solar energetic particles (SEP) fluxes to the experimental data. It is shown, that the postulates on neglecting SEP fluxes in quiet Sun years and on invariability SEP fluxes in active Sun years, underlying some models, contradict the experimental data.     

影响卫星故障的空间天气分析

基于美国国家地球物理数据中心(NGDC) 2384例和中国19颗卫星的263例卫星故障信息, 结合1963-2012年小时平均的多种空间环境数据, 定量分析了三种卫星故障发生期间的空间要素特征, 探讨单粒子锁定(SEU)、表面充电致静电放电(ESD)和内部深层充电所致电子引起的电磁脉冲(ECEMP)与空间天气事件的可能联系, 得出以下主要结论. (1)大部分SEU和ECEMP发生于空间天气平静时, 但在其前后3日内地磁活动达到了磁暴水平, 相对来说比例最大的发生在Dst_min之后第3日 (48～72h). (2) ESD受地磁活动和高能电子通量影响明显. 与磁暴、相对论电子通量增强事件的季节性相对应, 两分点附近ESD和ECEMP的发生率高; 93.6% 的 ESD发生前后72h内地磁活动达到磁暴水平, 故障发生时间均匀分布在 Dst_min前0～48h 和后0～24h; 54.9%的ESD 发生时处于地磁暴期(Dst <-30nT), 以-50～-30nT的小磁暴水平居多; 40.6%的ESD发生于高能电子通量高水平期(≥ 103pfu, 1pfu =1cm-2·s-1·sr-1), 81.9%的ESD发生前后72h 内高能电子通量峰值≥ 103pfu, 发生率最高时段为电子通量峰值前 48～72h. (3)高能电子对中国同步轨道卫星的SEU影响明显, 42.5% 故障发生 时高能电子通量≥ 103pfu, 故障在峰值前48～72h和峰值后48～72h 的发生概率相当, 约为23.0%. (4)同步轨道卫星SEU受太阳质子事件的影响相对较大, 22.5%的中国同步轨道卫星故障发生前后72h内发生了太阳质子事件, 季节性不明显.      

基于二级声辐射模型的地面声场高效预测方法

建立了可用于直升机运动状态下噪声传播特性分析的高效地面声场预测方法。该方法包括计算旋翼气动、噪声的自由尾迹方法和时域FW-H方程;计入大气、地面等环境因素的声传播模型及地面声场计算模型;为提高计算效率,在声源计算与噪声传播之间引入基于“紧致球声源”的二级声辐射模型;在此基础上,还提出了通过建立“特征参数声辐射球库”以实现直升机运动状态下噪声实时预测的方法。以AH-1旋翼为算例,通过与地面声场直接计算法对比,说明了方法的有效性及高效性;此外,文中还分析了大气、地面等环境因素对噪声传播以及地面声场特性的影响。      

太阳翼铰链结构的动力学实验与非线性动力学建模

通过动力学实验获得真实的太阳翼板间铰链结构于不同激振频率下的振动响应参数,并采用力状态映射法建立板间铰链的非线性动力学模型。首先,采用单频激励信号模拟外扰对实际的板间铰链结构实施动力学实验;然后,基于其结构具有的多重非线性动力学特性,根据实验数据应用力状态映射法辨识结构的动力学参数,建立其非线性动力学模型;最后,对由太阳翼板间铰链连接的两段梁所构成的系统进行了冲击激励下的振动响应测试,同时进行了有限元动力学仿真,实验测试结果和数值仿真结果取得了较好的一致性。本文建立的太阳翼板间铰链非线性动力学模型能够较好地反映其动力学特性,对于实际太阳翼结构的动力学建模具有理论参考价值。     

薄膜二次表面镜热控涂层的辐射物性分析

认识热控涂层的热辐射物性对航天器热控制设计具有重要指导作用。文章根据薄膜二次表面镜涂层的吸收与反射过程分析,建立模型方程,结合已有的太阳吸收比、红外发射率等表观数据,采用非线性参数最小二乘法获得了薄膜材料的吸收系数和反射率等辐射物性,并分析了厚度对热控涂层太阳吸收比和红外发射率的影响。研究结果表明,聚酰亚胺薄膜对太阳光的表面反射率为0.571,吸收系数为19.343 mm-1,对红外辐射的表面反射率为0.227,吸收系数为39.615mm-1;F46薄膜对太阳光的表面反射率为0.744,吸收系数为0.757mm-1,对红外辐射的表面反射率为0.111,吸收系数为9.240mm-1。     

基于PCA方法对太阳活动区主要参量的分析

太阳耀斑与太阳质子事件的发生通常与太阳活动区存在非常密切的关系, 对这种关系的深入分析有助于太阳耀斑和太阳质子事件预报模型的建立. 本文利用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)方法对1997-2010年太阳质子事件所在活动区的主要参量进行分析, 选取的参量包括黑子磁分类、 McIntosh分类、太阳黑子群面积、10.7 cm射电流量、耀斑指数、质子耀斑位置和软X射线耀斑强度. 结果得到81个太阳活动主成分得分值排序(得分值代表每个事件的强弱), 与太阳质子事件峰值流量、太阳黑子年均值以及10.7 cm射电流量年均值的对比显示相似度非常高, 表明主成分得分值一定程度上可以反映太阳活动的强弱规律.      

太阳高能粒子事件上升时间统计研究

选取1997-2006年共66个较大的缓变型太阳高能粒子(SEP)事件, 分析了不同条件下太阳高能粒子通量廓线上升时间与源区日面经向分布之间的相关关系, 研究了日冕物质抛射(CME)和耀斑在SEP上升阶段的作用特点.统计结果表明,大SEP事件的源区主要分布在太阳西半球, 特别是磁足点东西两侧45°范围内; 在高速太阳风条件下, 低能通道的通量上升时间与日面相对经度有较好的相关性,即离磁足点越远, 上升时间越长,而高能通道相关性则不明显; 全晕状CME产生的SEP事件对应的上升时间与源区位置没有明显的相关性, 而部分晕状CME伴随的SEP事件则与二次拟合曲线符合很好.分析表明,在缓变型SEP事件的通量上升阶段, 耀斑加速过程起着重要作用,这在部分晕状CME伴随的SEP事件中尤为显著.      

Sensing the Earth’s low ionosphere during solar flares using VLF signals and goes solar X-ray data

An analysis of D-region electron density height profile variations, induced by four isolated solar X-ray flares during period from September 2005 to December 2006, based on the amplitude and the phase delay perturbation of 22.1 kHz signal trace from Skelton (54.72 N, 2.88 W) to Belgrade (44.85 N, 20.38 E), coded GQD, was carried out. Solar flare data were taken from NOAA GOES12 satellite one-minute listings. For VLF data acquisition and recordings at the Institute of Physics, Belgrade, Serbia, the AbsPAL system was used. Starting from LWPCv21 code (Ferguson, 1998), the variations of the Earth-ionosphere waveguide characteristic parameters, sharpness and reflection height, were estimated during the flare conditions. It was found that solar flare events affected the VLF wave propagation in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide by changing the lower ionosphere electron density height profile, in a different way, for different solar flare events.     

Evolution of Dst index,cosmic rays and global temperature during solar cycles 20–23

We have studied conditions in interplanetary space, which can have an influence on galactic cosmic ray (CR) and climate change. In this connection the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters and cosmic ray variations have been compared with geomagnetic activity represented by the equatorial Dst index from the beginning 1965 to the end of 2012. Dst index is commonly used as the solar wind–magnetosphere–ionosphere interaction characteristic. The important drivers in interplanetary medium which have effect on cosmic rays as CMEs (coronal mass ejections) and CIRs (corotating interaction regions) undergo very strong changes during their propagation to the Earth. Because of this CMEs, coronal holes and the solar spot numbers (SSN) do not adequately reflect peculiarities concerned with the solar wind arrival to 1 AU. Therefore, the geomagnetic indices have some inestimable advantage as continuous series other the irregular solar wind measurements. We have compared the yearly average variations of Dst index and the solar wind parameters with cosmic ray data from Moscow, Climax, and Haleakala neutron monitors during the solar cycles 20–23. The descending phases of these solar cycles (CSs) had the long-lasting solar wind high speed streams occurred frequently and were the primary contributors to the recurrent Dst variations. They also had effects on cosmic rays variations. We show that long-term Dst variations in these solar cycles were correlated with the cosmic ray count rate and can be used for study of CR variations. Global temperature variations in connection with evolution of Dst index and CR variations is discussed.