太阳10.7cm射电流量中期预报模型研究(Ⅰ)

采用时间序列模型中的自回归方法开展了F_(10.7)中期预报研究.预报试验和误差分析结果表明,在太阳活动水平较低、F_(10.7)的27天周期性明显时自回归预报方法的预报精度高,具有较为理想的预报效果,但在日面有大活动区产生和消亡时预报效果不理想.这说明时间序列模型中的自回归方法能够较好地反映太阳F_(10.7)的27天周期性特征,对F_(10.7)中期预报模型的建立有一定适用性.通过对2005年9月21日至2007年6月7日期间预报结果的比较可以看出,自回归分析方法预报的精度与美国空军预报的相当。     

Charging of dust grains by anisotropic solar wind multi-component plasma

In this paper we study the charging process of small grain particles by anisotropic multi-component solar wind plasmas (electrons, protons and heavy ions), versus two-component (electron/proton) plasmas. We are focusing attention on the important characteristics of the charging process, namely the charging time, floating potential and current content as functions of plasma parameters such as He⁺⁺/H⁺ (α/p) number density and T_α/T_p temperature ratios of alpha particles to protons, as well as plasma streaming velocity v₀. Measured statistical properties of solar wind plasma parameters at 1 AU show considerable variations in α/p-temperature ratios from 1 to 10, in α/p-number density ratio from 0.01 to 0.35, as well as in values of streaming velocity v₀ from 200 km/s to 1000 km/s and more. Periods of these variations could last for several days each, leading to significant variability in the charging process, according to newly derived general analytical expressions. Numerical calculations performed for protons/alphas plasmas showed large disparity in the charging characteristics. For example, in anisotropic plasma, grain charging time varies up to 90% depending on α/p-particles temperature and number density ratios, whereas changes in floating potential are up to 40%. In contrast, in isotropic plasma, charging characteristic for grains do not change very much for the same plasma parameters variations, with charging time varying about 12% and floating potential only varying about 4%. It is also shown that in highly anisotropic plasma, with all ballistic electrons and ions, dust grains could not hold their charges, and characteristic discharged time is calculated. We note that the analysis is equally applicable to any sized body immersed in solar wind plasma.     

The heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays: Effects of a latitude dependent solar wind termination shock

Observations made with the two Voyager spacecraft confirmed that the solar wind decelerates to form the heliospheric termination shock and that it has begun its merger with the local interstellar medium. The compression ratio of this shock affects galactic cosmic rays when they enter the heliosphere. Hydrodynamic (HD) models show that the compression ratio can have a significant latitude dependence; with the largest value in the nose direction of the heliosphere, becoming significantly less towards the polar regions. The modulation effects of such large latitude dependence are studied, using a well-established numerical drift and shock modulation model. We focus on computing the modulated spectra for galactic protons with emphasis on the radial and polar gradients in the equatorial plane and at a polar angle of θ = 55°, corresponding to the heliolatitude of Voyager 1. Two sets of solutions are computed and compared each time; with and without a latitude dependence for the compression ratio. All computations are done for the two magnetic field polarity cycles assuming solar minimum conditions. Including the termination shock in the model allows the study of the re-acceleration of galactic protons in the outer heliosphere. We find that for the A < 0 polarity cycle the intensity between ∼200 MeV and ∼1 GeV in the vicinity of the shock in the heliospheric equatorial plane may exceed the local interstellar value specified at the heliopause. Unfortunately, at θ = 55°, the effect is reduced. This seems not possible during an A > 0 cycle because significant modulation is then predicted between the heliopause and the termination shock, depending on how strong global gradient and curvature drifts are in the heliosheath. The overall effect of the shock on galactic protons in the equatorial plane is to reduce the total modulation as a function of radial distance with respect to the interstellar spectrum. Making the compression ratio latitude dependent enhances these effects at energies E < 200 MeV in the equatorial plane. At larger heliolatitudes these effects are even more significant. The differences in the modulation between the two drift cycles are compelling when the compression ratio is made latitude dependent but at Earth this effect is insignificant. A general result is that the computed radial gradient changes for galactic protons at and close to the TS and that these changes are polarity dependent. In line with previous work, large polarity dependent effects are predicted for the inner heliosphere and also close to the shock’s position in the equatorial plane. In contrast, at θ = 55°, the largest polarity effect occurs in the middle heliosphere (50 AU), enhanced by the latitude dependence of the compression ratio. At this latitude, the amount of proton modulation between the heliopause and the termination shock is much reduced. If galactic cosmic rays were to experience some diffusive shock acceleration over the 100–1000 MeV range at the shock, the radial gradient should change its sign in the vicinity of the shock, how large, depends on the compression ratio and the amount of drifts taking place in the outer heliosphere. The effective polar gradient shows a strong polarity dependence at Earth but this dissipates at θ = 55°, especially with increasing radial distance. This tendency is enhanced by making the compression ratio latitude dependent.     

Kinetic theory of sheath formation in solar wind plasma

We present a general self-consistent kinetic theory for plasma sheath formation in solar wind plasma. The theory could be applied to anisotropic, as well as to isotropic collisionless plasma without resorting to any simplifications, limitations, or assumptions, such as the necessary existence of a ‘pre-sheath’ region of ions acceleration to ensure the Bohm criterion. The kinetic framework is first applied to sheath formation around an arbitrary oriented planar absorbing surface, charged by solar wind anisotropic plasma, under the condition of negligible photoelectric effect. We then make use of our kinetic approach for the plane geometry in isotropic collisionless plasma, as a particular case of a planar electrode orientation parallel to plasma streaming velocity, also analyzing the sheath structure around spherical and cylindrical absorbing electrodes submerged in isotropic collisionless plasma. Obtained results demonstrate principal differences in spatial charge distributions in sheath regions between spherical or cylindrical electrodes of large size and an unbound planar surface submerged in isotropic plasma. In the case of a planar electrode, we directly compare results obtained in our kinetic and hydrodynamic theories and conventional hydrodynamic theory of plasma sheath formation. The outcome from the present study have direct implications to the analysis of plasma sheath structure and associated distribution in space of charged dust grains, which is relevant to the moon exploration near the optical terminator region or in shadowed craters in the moon.     

Solar rhythms in the characteristics of the Arctic frontal zone in the North Atlantic

Long-term changes of the Arctic frontal zone characteristics near the south-eastern coasts of Greenland were considered, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data being used. It was found that in the cold half of the year the temperature gradients in the layer 1000–500 hPa in the region under study reveal strong ∼10-yr and ∼22-yr periodicities that seem to be related to solar activity cycles. The results obtained suggest the influence of solar activity and cosmic ray variations on the structure of the temperature field of the troposphere resulting in the changes of the temperature contrasts in the Arctic frontal zone that, in turn, may affect the intensity of cyclogenesis at middle latitudes. The detected effects seem to indicate an important part of frontal zones in the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray variation influence on the development of extratropical baric systems. It is suggested that the variations of the temperature gradients revealed in the Arctic frontal zone are due to the radiative forcing of cloudiness changes which may be associated with geomagnetic activity and cosmic ray variations.     

Global Hybrid Simulation of Magnetic Reconnection in the Magnetosheath

A three-dimensional (3-D) global hybrid simulation is carried out for the generation and structure of magnetic reconnection in the magnetosheath due to interaction of an interplanetary Tangential Discontinuity (TD) with the bow shock and magnetosphere. Runs are performed for solar wind TDs possessing different initial half-widths. As the TD propagates through the bow shock toward the magnetopause, it is greatly narrowed by a two-step compression processes, a "shock compression' followed by a subsequent ``convective compression'. In cases with a relatively thin solar wind TD, 3-D patchy reconnection is initiated in the transmitted TD, forming magnetosheath flux ropes. Multiple components of ion particles are present in the velocity distribution in the magnetosheath merging, accompanied by ion heating. For cases with a relatively wide initial TD, a dominant single X-line appears in the subsolar magnetosheath after the transmitted TD is narrowed. A shock analysis is performed for the detailed structure of magnetic reconnection in the magnetosheath. Rotational Discontinuity (RD)/Time-Dependent Intermediate Shock (TDIS) are found to dominate the reconnection layer, which and some weak slow shocks are responsible for the ion heating and acceleration.      

Temporal and spatial variation of equatorial ionization anomaly by using multistation ionosonde data for the 19th solar cycle over the Indian region

The paper deals with the study of temporal and spatial variation of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) phenomenon along with its dependence on solar activity and season during the 19th solar cycle by using seven Indian ionosonde stations. Present study is an attempt to carry out the comprehensive study of EIA by using the limited number of ground based instruments. This has been achieved by performing the Gaussian fitting over the latitudinal distribution of F2-region critical frequency (foF2) data. Results reveal that the phenomenon of EIA has a strong dependence on solar activity and seasons. The EIA crest exhibits the feature of latitudinal shifting and expansion with increasing solar activity. It is found out that the effect of solar cycle and seasons on EIA is local time dependent. The observations were also compared with the IRI-2001 model predictions and results reveal that the model values are in general agreement with the observed values with some discrepancies, particularly during the high solar activity period and morning sector. The results have been discussed in the light of relative contribution from transequatorial interhemispheric neutral wind and strength of equatorial fountain process during different local time, season and solar activity levels. Furthermore, an attempt is made to parameterize the location and foF2 of the EIA crest by using the regression analysis. These results can be used to predict the latitudinal position and foF2 of the EIA crest for any given 12-month running average sunspot number (R12).     

Validate the IRI2007 model by the COSMIC slant TEC data during the extremely solar minimum of 2008

During 2008, the solar activity is extremely low. The satellite observations show that the ionospheric height and electron density is much lower than the predictions by the international reference ionosphere (IRI) model. In this paper, we compared the slant total electron content (TEC) observed by the COSMIC satellites during 2008 with the IRI model results. It is found that the IRI model with IRI2001 and IRI2001 Cor. topside options will always overestimate the electron density in both lower and higher altitudes. But the rest two topside options (NeQuick, and TTS) tend to overestimate the electron density in the F layer and underestimate it in the topside altitudes. The switch altitude between overestimation and underestimation and the latitude-local time distribution of the model deviation depend on the topside option. The current investigation might be useful for the model improvement as well as data assimilation work based on the IRI model and the LEO TEC data.