空中交通管制员不安全行为纠正

为减少因空中交通管制员的不安全行为所导致的不安全事件,依据空中交通管制工作特点,应用不安全行为纠正技术,建立管制员不安全行为纠正实施的规则与实施计划,针对10位管制员进行16周的行为观察与纠正,其整体安全行为指数由65.82%提高到72.79%,取得预期效果。在管理制度和硬件系统不断完善的情况下,该方法可以作为一种提高管制质量的有效途径。     

Applying fuzzy bi-dimensional scenario-based model to the assessment of Mars mission architecture scenarios

Sending man to Mars has been a long-held dream of humankind. NASA plans human planetary explorations using approaches that are technically feasible, have reasonable risks and have relatively low costs. This study presents a novel Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) model for evaluating a range of potential mission scenarios for the human exploration of Mars. The three alternatives identified by the Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) include split mission, combo lander and dual scenarios. The proposed framework subsumes the following key methods: first, the conjunction method is used to minimize the number of alternative mission scenarios; second, the Fuzzy Risk Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (RFMEA) is used to analyze the potential failure of the alternative scenarios; third, the fuzzy group Real Option Analysis (ROA) is used to estimate the expected costs and benefits of the alternative scenarios; and fourth, the fuzzy group permutation approach is used to select the optimal mission scenario. We present the results of a case study at NASA’s Johnson Space center to demonstrate: (1) the complexity of mission scenario selection involving subjective and objective judgments provided by multiple space exploration experts; and (2) a systematic and structured method for aggregating quantitative and qualitative data concerning a large number of competing and conflicting mission events.     

Towards a scientific understanding of the risk from extreme space weather

Like all natural hazards, space weather exhibits occasional extreme events over timescales of decades to centuries. Historical events provoked much interest, and sometimes alarm, because bright aurora becomes visible at mid-latitudes. However, they had little economic impact because the major technologies of those eras were not sensitive to space weather. This is no longer true. The widespread adoption of advanced technological infrastructures over the past 40 years has created significant sensitivity. So these events now have the potential to disrupt those infrastructures – and thus have profound economic and societal impact. However, like all extreme hazards, such events are rare, so we have limited data on which to build our understanding of the events. This limitation is uniquely serious for space weather since it is a global phenomenon. Many other natural hazards (e.g. flash floods) are highly localised, so statistically significant datasets can be assembled by combining data from independent instances of the hazard recorded over a few decades. Such datasets are the foundation on which reliable risk assessment methodologies are built. But we have a single instance of space weather so we would have to make observations for many centuries in order to build a statistically significant dataset. We show that it is not practicable to assess the risk from extreme events using simple statistical methods. Instead we must exploit our knowledge of solar-terrestrial physics to find other ways to assess these risks. We discuss three alternative approaches: (a) use of proxy data, (b) studies of other solar systems, and (c) use of physics-based modelling. We note that the proxy data approach is already well-established as a technique for assessing the long-term risk from radiation storms, but does not yet provide any means to assess the risk from severe geomagnetic storms. This latter risk is more suited to the other approaches, but significant research is needed to make progress. We need to develop and expand techniques to monitoring key space weather features in other solar systems (stellar flares, radio emissions from planetary aurorae). And to make progress in modelling severe space weather, we need to focus on the physics that controls severe geomagnetic storms, e.g. how can dayside and tail reconnection be modulated to expand the region of open flux to envelop mid-latitudes?     

卫星对地观测技术在防灾救灾中的作用研究

充分利用各种对地观测技术,从信息化的角度支持防灾救灾行动,已被列入政府的重要工作内容。总结前一阶段的经验,从灾前、灾期、灾后的全过程系统地考虑如何充分发挥卫星对地观测技术的防灾救灾作用,是一个值得研究的问题。文章从防灾预案、灾期救援和灾后重建三个方面研究了卫星对地观测技术在防灾救灾全过程中发挥作用的技术途径。     

氢氧发动机试验安全技术

本文着重从氢氧发动机试验过程中的安全技术方面进行技术总结,从事故中吸取教训,采取有效措施,以保障氢氧发动机的试验成功.     

重复使用火箭贮箱焊接接头失效准则及高风险失效危险区确定研究

贮箱是重复使用火箭的关键部件之一,焊缝的完整性评定是重复使用火箭贮箱设计制造的难题。本文根据断裂力学弹塑性原理及双参数2A级失效评估方法,对重复使用火箭贮箱焊缝裂纹进行定量评估。基于贮箱焊缝完整性评定流程,给出求解贮箱箱底焊缝剩余强度和临界裂纹尺寸的方法,结合实例确定了典型贮箱高风险失效危险部位。计算结果表明,结构临界裂纹尺寸随外加应力增加而减小,剩余强度随临界裂纹长度增加而减小;在相同外加应力下,临界裂纹尺寸随结构外径的降低而减小;在一定临界裂纹尺寸下,剩余强度随结构外径增加而增加。     

低等级进口元器件卫星使用存在问题及风险评估方法探索

文章针对近年来卫星使用的低等级元器件的特点和存在的问题进行了分析,对低等级元器件的卫星使用策略及风险评估方法进行了研究和总结。     

核反应堆空间应用研究

对美国、俄罗斯等国家的核反应堆空间应用进行了研究。其中包括:美国最早研究的SNAP-8系列,可提供多种组合输出的SP-100布雷顿能量系统,应用于火星表面的核反应堆MSR系统等;俄罗斯和日本在月球表面或火星表面应用的核反应堆。重点对空间核反应堆的堆型、堆芯冷却方式、热电转换方式、废热排放方式、辐射屏蔽模式等进行比对分析。结合月球基地能源系统的应用背景,对实现核反应堆空间应用需要解决的关键技术进行了分析,如发射安全技术、无人自主管理技术、空间低重力环境适应性及辐射防护技术等,可为我国未来空间探测任务的能源系统研究提供借鉴和参考。     

宾馆火灾风险评估初探

在分析宾馆火灾发生原因的基础上,建立了宾馆火灾危险性、火灾损失评估因素集,并运用模糊评价法对宾馆的火灾安全进行风险性和损失评价,通过评价得出建筑物所属的安全等级,从而为宾馆实施安全管理提供方向和依据。该方法的建立可用于保险公司对投保建筑的鉴别与筛选,同时也可使管理者根据该评估方法及时采取防火安全措施,以降低火灾危险性,减少火灾损失。