航天型号产品供方管理模式初探

文章对航天型号产品供方管理存在问题进行了分析，提出了航天型号产品供方管理的目标和管理模式的设想，从确定供方选择原则、建立灵活适用的供方绩效评价指标体系、建立供方数据采集和分析模型、识别和优化供方、规范航天型号产品供方评价方法和程序等几个方面进行了浅入分析。     

Distributed online mission planning for multi-player space pursuit and evasion

There are three important roles in evasion conflict: pursuer, target and defender. Pur-suers’ mission is to access targets;targets’ mission is to escape from pursuers’ capture;defenders’ mission is to intercept pursuers who are potentially dangerous to targets. In this paper, a distributed online mission plan (DOMP) algorithm for pursuers is proposed based on fuzzy evaluation and Nash equilibrium. First, an integrated effectiveness evaluation model is given. Then, the details of collaborative mission planning which includes the co-optimization of task distributing, trajectory and corresponding maneuvering scheme are presented. Finally, the convergence and steadiness of DOMP are discussed with simulation results. Compared with centralized mission planning, DOMP is more robust and can greatly improve the effectiveness of pursuing. It can be applied to dynamic scenario due to its distributed architecture.     

反导预警雷达部署方案的评价与优选

合理部署反导预警雷达对提高反导作战效能起着重要作用。反导预警雷达部署要考虑的因素较多,部分因素存在冲突。本文分析了反导预警雷达部署评价应考虑的因素,提出了相关评价指标,主要有不同配置距离下雷达对目标的发现概率、提供的预警时间、落点预报精度、全程跟踪目标时长等,建立了不同评价指标的计算方法,给出了反导预警雷达部署方案的综合评价与优选方法。本文方法对反导预警雷达部署方案的建立优选具有指导意义。     

Applying fuzzy bi-dimensional scenario-based model to the assessment of Mars mission architecture scenarios

Sending man to Mars has been a long-held dream of humankind. NASA plans human planetary explorations using approaches that are technically feasible, have reasonable risks and have relatively low costs. This study presents a novel Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) model for evaluating a range of potential mission scenarios for the human exploration of Mars. The three alternatives identified by the Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) include split mission, combo lander and dual scenarios. The proposed framework subsumes the following key methods: first, the conjunction method is used to minimize the number of alternative mission scenarios; second, the Fuzzy Risk Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (RFMEA) is used to analyze the potential failure of the alternative scenarios; third, the fuzzy group Real Option Analysis (ROA) is used to estimate the expected costs and benefits of the alternative scenarios; and fourth, the fuzzy group permutation approach is used to select the optimal mission scenario. We present the results of a case study at NASA’s Johnson Space center to demonstrate: (1) the complexity of mission scenario selection involving subjective and objective judgments provided by multiple space exploration experts; and (2) a systematic and structured method for aggregating quantitative and qualitative data concerning a large number of competing and conflicting mission events.     

Towards a scientific understanding of the risk from extreme space weather

Like all natural hazards, space weather exhibits occasional extreme events over timescales of decades to centuries. Historical events provoked much interest, and sometimes alarm, because bright aurora becomes visible at mid-latitudes. However, they had little economic impact because the major technologies of those eras were not sensitive to space weather. This is no longer true. The widespread adoption of advanced technological infrastructures over the past 40 years has created significant sensitivity. So these events now have the potential to disrupt those infrastructures – and thus have profound economic and societal impact. However, like all extreme hazards, such events are rare, so we have limited data on which to build our understanding of the events. This limitation is uniquely serious for space weather since it is a global phenomenon. Many other natural hazards (e.g. flash floods) are highly localised, so statistically significant datasets can be assembled by combining data from independent instances of the hazard recorded over a few decades. Such datasets are the foundation on which reliable risk assessment methodologies are built. But we have a single instance of space weather so we would have to make observations for many centuries in order to build a statistically significant dataset. We show that it is not practicable to assess the risk from extreme events using simple statistical methods. Instead we must exploit our knowledge of solar-terrestrial physics to find other ways to assess these risks. We discuss three alternative approaches: (a) use of proxy data, (b) studies of other solar systems, and (c) use of physics-based modelling. We note that the proxy data approach is already well-established as a technique for assessing the long-term risk from radiation storms, but does not yet provide any means to assess the risk from severe geomagnetic storms. This latter risk is more suited to the other approaches, but significant research is needed to make progress. We need to develop and expand techniques to monitoring key space weather features in other solar systems (stellar flares, radio emissions from planetary aurorae). And to make progress in modelling severe space weather, we need to focus on the physics that controls severe geomagnetic storms, e.g. how can dayside and tail reconnection be modulated to expand the region of open flux to envelop mid-latitudes?     

高职院校校外实践教学的探索与研究

通过分析和总结广州民航职业技术学院机务专业校外实践教学的经验，指出了高职院校校外实训教学开展应该注意的问题，提出了改进的措施，以促进学生实践技能的培养和提高，对高职院校开展校外实践教学具有一定的指导意义。     

GPS/GLONASS/GALILEO实时服务（RTS）产品性能评估分析

目前,不同机构提供的GNSS实时服务产品性能存在差异。为了全面揭示实时服务产品的性能，为系统服务和用户应用提供参考，统计了各实时服务产品的历元完整率及卫星数量，基于实时轨道和钟差恢复方法，比较分析了产品精度，并评估了产品定位性能。研究结果表明：正常情况下，实时服务产品的历元完整率较高，基本可保持在95%以上，所提供系统的卫星数量保持稳定且充足。对于GPS，各机构卫星实时轨道平均精度基本一致，约为3cm，实时钟差精度略有差别。对于其他GNSS，不同机构产品精度存在差别。利用实时服务产品进行GPS实时精密单点定位的平面精度优于10cm，高程精度优于20cm。相对于GPS单系统，多系统联合定位精度基本一致，但收敛速度明显提升。     

标准光学高温计检定结果的不确定度评定

根据《JJG2 2 7- 80标准光学高温计检定规程》的规定 ,在检定标准光学高温计所用仪器设备的技术条件下 ,讨论了标准光学高温计检定结果的不确定度评定     

测量不确定度应用中的几个问题

就ＩＳＯ１９９３（Ｅ）测量不确定度表示指南，指出一些使用不当的问题，并就两类评定方法、不确定度的传播与合成、扩展不确定度的包含因子以及规范表示方式等问题阐述了作者的一些见解。